technomaster wrote:Well, if he has a short shelf life, can he be good enough early enough to be a difference maker. I think of Brandon Roy. Buddy had no cartilage in his knees. He was fantastic al-star talent for several years, then just couldn’t do it anymore.The more useless version is Jonathan Bender, whose entire career was taken from him, short of maybe a dozen impressive games on the Knicks. He should have been Anthony Davis but just was never healthy enough.
From what I read, there was a study of 61 nba players who had his type of procedure done. They all returned as good or better the 2nd year after the surgery.
One of the larger problems actually becomes a resource management problem. IF, and it's a huge IF, MPJr does pan out and/or develop as people hope, it might not be until his 2nd contract. The team drafting him will eat his growing pains, rehab and development just to process him for his next team.
It would be like a dude dating a woman who was fat in college. She graduated, got a nice job, got her own place, lost the weight, and guess what? All that work he put into that relationship, maybe helping her with her diet, exercise, self esteem, etc, goes just to benefit the new guy in place. It was an article I read in some health magazine, that lap band surgery, when it's successful, a lot of married people branch swing out to someone else.
If he's shut down now, his contract "tolls", if not, then it's a more complicated story. What you don't want is a guy kinda plays for 15 percent of the season, gets enough service time to qualify for a full season, then gets shelved and that happens a couple of years in a row. If he breaks out after that, you are stuck with a really hard decision long term. If he doesn't break out, he's a sunk cost and you have to question the true opportunity cost of even the roster spot and minutes.
He creates a ton of lose/lose situations. He'd be better off being a 2nd rounder oddly given his specific case. I wish him the best though as a fan of the game.