ankurk wrote:Please let me know how you guys feel about this:
I truly think the knicks need to do all they can to move up to a top 3 position to draft doncic with the exception of next years pick. Trade away 2020,2022 and our 9... trade tim. Just keep frank.
The "swing pick" in this draft is the 2nd overall pick, where Doncic or Bagley could both be seen, right now, as possible choices.
The current CBA started it's clock last season and has an opt out ( which will likely be taken) after 5 seasons from there. Under the "Cost Certainty" principle, NBA teams do not want or like to trade so far ahead that it outstrips the timeline of the current CBA ( they do not know how cost control will change in that timeline, also rookie slotting is taking a pretty big bump, progressively the cost structure is going up 45 percent total, with a smoothing format over the next few seasons)
The Knicks in any trade like this, in theory, would want pick protections of some kind. Pick protections can only work for so long. A trade with a pick means the pick or it's value structure must be conveyed within three seasons. Meaning pick protections have to, by their nature, become progressively weaker for the team trading it off. You can't protect a pick forever. You can't make a trade where the pick is so protected that it simply never confers. The rate of pick protection would extend past the current CBA, making the trade undesirable.
To add "value" to the trade, the non Knicks team would want first round pick flip options (How did that work out for Brooklyn and the Celtics?) implied in the every other year scenario to abide by the Stepien Rule.
I've said this before, the nominal accepted timeline for a practical NBA rebuild from the ground up is about 5-7 years. Your trade proposal, unless someone like Doncic ends up a true Hall Of Fame caliber player, a top 3 player in the league for a decade or more, would gut this team for a decade, likely longer.
The more you like Doncic, the more it's implied that the team in the 2nd slot, the Kings, have no incentive to trade it out. If he's everything you think he could be, why would they trade him? Why would they think any different?
Would you bet the next 10 years of the Knicks future on Doncic? More to point, would the Kings and Knicks front offices survive without being fired if they made this kind of trade? Real NBA GMs don't make moves that dramatically increase their chances of getting fired.
Your idea makes sense in terms of when the Warriors traded for Igoudala. In their situation and timeline, giving up multiple picks to dump contracts and carve space for one player makes some sense.
There is no quick fix here. Every NBA rebuild is just a slow painful grind.