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Insider/Givony 18 NBA Draft Lottery Prospects-Comps, Projections, Strengths and Weaknesses
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2018 NBA draft lottery prospects - Comps, projections, strengths and weaknesses
2018 NBA draft lottery prospects - Comps, projections, strengths and weaknesses
by Jonathan Givony on 2018-05-17 14:21:00 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23470275/2018-nba-draft-lottery-prospects-comps-projections-strengths-weaknesses)

Who are the best NBA draft prospects available in the lottery?

Before Tuesday's draw (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN), we break down the top 14 players in our rankings, including strengths, improvement areas, draft ranges, physical comps and more.

1. Deandre Ayton | C | Age: 19.7 | Arizona
Born in the Bahamas, Ayton immigrated to San Diego at age 12 and quickly emerged as one of the most hyped prospects in America. He had his fair share of ups and downs through high school, leading him to lose his status as the No. 1 prospect in the class due to question marks about his intensity level. Ayton quickly dispelled many of those notions with an extremely impressive freshman season at Arizona, leading all likely drafted prospects in player efficiency rating (PER) and re-emerging as the front-runner for the top pick in the draft despite an underwhelming finish in the Wildcats' upset loss to No. 13 seed Buffalo in the first round of the NCAA tournament. -- Givony


Incredibly gifted physical specimen in terms of size, length, frame and mobility.

Exceptionally skilled for a player his size. Can dribble, pass and shoot. Inside-out threat.

Terrific rebounder (career 15.2 per 40 minutes).

Improvement areas

Often a step slow defensively. Instincts/awareness leave a lot to be desired at times. Didn't affect the game (0.7 steals, 2.3 blocks per 40) as much as you'd expect at college level. Can he anchor a defense?

Work ethic is average according to those who have worked with him

Fancies himself as more of a power forward than a center. Would rather pop than roll. Will he be willing to do the dirty work/little things?

Projected role: Franchise center

Physical comps
Deandre Ayton 19.3 7-0.5 261 7-5
Greg Oden 19.4 7-0 257 7-4.25
Steven Adams 19.9 7-0 255 7-4.5
Joel Embiid 19.0 7-0 240 7-5
Range: Nos. 1-2

2. Luka Doncic | PG | Age: 19.1 | Real Madrid
The Slovenian wunderkind signed a long-term deal with Real Madrid at 13. A two-time EuroLeague rising star winner (2017 and 2018), Doncic is now one of the top players in all of Europe, regardless of age. Alongside Goran Dragic and newly hired Phoenix Suns coach Igor Kokoskov, Doncic helped lead Slovenia to its first EuroBasket gold medal, highlighted by victories over Kristaps Porzingis and Latvia and Marc Gasol and Spain. Doncic carried that momentum into an MVP-caliber EuroLeague season, currently ranking fourth in PER, points per game and win shares while helping lead Real Madrid to the final four. -- Schmitz


Electric transition player who rebounds and pushes with a purpose. Powerful athlete once he can get momentum going. Creative open-floor playmaker.

Ball-screen savant who picks apart defenses with his elite vision, timing and creativity (7.3 assists per 40). Punishes defenders for going under screens with deep pull-ups.

Smart off-ball defender who shows good activity when his offense is going (8.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per 40). Elite instincts on both ends.

Improvement areas

Struggles with aggressive ball pressure. Lacks a degree of wiggle in shot-creation situations. Needs another creator next to him.

Questions about his defensive upside. Can he hold up against NBA wings?

Prone to occasional emotional outbursts. Doesn't always handle adversity well.

Projected role: Big playmaker

Physical comps
Luka Doncic N/A 6-8 228 8-9
Joe Johnson 19.9 6-8.25 226 8-9
Solomon Hill 22.3 6-7 226 8-7
TJ Warren 20.7 6-8.25 220 8-8
Range: Nos. 1-5

3. Marvin Bagley III | PF/C | Age: 19.1 | Duke
Bagley emerged as one of the top prospects in high school basketball from a very early age and never relinquished that title before making the late decision to join Duke with his proper age group. He never suited up in an official tournament for USA Basketball (by choice) and always played on smaller teams in high school and AAU, preferring to be in places where he was the unquestioned star. Bagley needed no time at all to adjust to the college game, looking absolutely dominant in the months of November and December. He tailed off somewhat as the season moved on, but still had an outstanding campaign. -- Givony

2018 NBA draft
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Great size, athleticism and frame. Fluid and agile. One of the better rim-runners in this draft. Quick off his feet with an excellent second jump. Strong first step. Powerful finisher.

Has terrific scoring instincts. Averaged 25 points per 40. Doesn't need plays run for him. Made 23 of 58 3s in 33 games (40 percent). Solid ball handler. Likely has better shot-creation potential with more spacing.

Plays with a high intensity level, outstanding on offensive glass.

Improvement areas

Skill level is a work in progress. Extremely left-hand dominant. Relied heavily on his physical advantage for production at the college level. Below-average passer.

3-point shooting came on a small sample size; 63 percent free throw shooter.

Defensive instincts leave a lot to be desired. Often a split-second late on rotations. The reason Duke was forced to go zone exclusively? Shows potential switching but doesn't protect the rim at all. Per-40 combo of 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks is a major red flag historically. Can he anchor a modern defense?

Projected role: Stat-stuffing energy big man

Physical comps
Marvin Bagley III 19.1 6-10.5 234 7-0.5
Dwight Powell 22.8 6-11 234 7-0.5
Marquese Chriss 18.9 6-10 233 7-0.25
Ben Simmons 19.2 6-10 240 7-0.25
Range: Nos. 2-5

4. Jaren Jackson Jr. | PF/ C | Age: 18.6 | Michigan State
A late bloomer who didn't emerge as a one-and-done candidate until the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit week, Jackson comes from an athletic family as the son of longtime NBA player Jaren Jackson Sr. (1989-2002) and Women's National Basketball Players Association director of operations Terri Jackson. The RSCI No. 9 recruit put together an extremely efficient freshman season at Michigan State, posting a 27.4 PER while ranking fourth in the NCAA in defensive rating and blocks per 40 minutes. Jackson is a bit offensively limited at this stage but he's arguably the draft's best defender and its youngest player. -- Schmitz


Impressive physical profile. Extremely agile.

Lockdown defender who can switch 1-5. Plays in a deep stance on the perimeter. Elite rim protector (5.5 blocks per 40).

Soft touch from the perimeter with time and space -- 38-of-96 from college 3 (39.6 percent) and 79.7 percent from the foul line. Unorthodox push shot but gets it off quickly. Can straight-line drive when run off his spots.

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Improvement areas

Foul-prone defender who lacks a degree of discipline (5.9 fouls per 40 ranks as the third-most in our Top 100).

Instincts on the defensive glass leave much to be desired at times. Had a reputation of being a bit soft early on in his high school career. Reverts back to that for stretches.

Offensive upside is a bit limited. Doesn't think the game at a high level. Not going to create offense from the mid-post.

Projected role: 3-and-D center

Physical comps
Jaren Jackson Jr. 17.9 6-11 240 7-4
Serge Ibaka 18.7 6-10.25 228 7-3
Ekpe Udoh 19.9 6-9.75 237 7-4.5
Dewayne Dedmon 23.9 6-11.5 239 7-4
Range: Nos. 2-5

5. Mohamed Bamba | C | Age: 19.9 | Texas
Bamba was identified as an elite prospect midway through high school due to his unique dimensions. He spent his formative years in academically oriented boarding schools, achieving good enough grades to enroll at an Ivy League school had he chosen. Bamba's freshman season at Texas was characterized by extreme highs and lows. He showed flashes of brilliance, particularly as a defender and rebounder, but struggled at times offensively, not always having the strength, experience or feel to hold his own. He nevertheless ranked second in the ESPN 100 in blocks and fifth in rebounding per 40. -- Givony


Excellent size (7-foot-9 wingspan will be the longest of any player in the NBA). Relatively thin but has a frame that should fill out nicely in time. Quick off his feet.

Has significant potential defensively. Shows some versatility stepping outside of the paint and switching onto smaller players.

Career 68 percent free throw shooter. Made 14 3s on the season. Seems to have soft touch and might have more potential as a shooter than he demonstrated in college. Good hands. Will be able to space the floor vertically.

Improvement areas

Has a tendency to float. Doesn't always look engaged or purposeful enough in terms of boxing out, setting screens, rolling to the rim and using his size to his advantage.

Offensive game is a major work in progress. Doesn't have any consistent means of scoring at the moment. Decision-making can be poor. Below-average passer.

Sixteen months older than Jackson. Has a lot of work to do on his physicality, skill and approach. One of the bigger boom-or-bust prospects in this draft.

Projected role: Rim-protecting, vertical-spacing center

Physical comps
Mohamed Bamba 18.9 7-0 225 7-9
Rudy Gobert 21.0 7-2 238 7-8.5
Hassan Whiteside 21.0 6-11.5 227 7-7
DeAndre Jordan 19.9 6-11 250 7-6
Range: Nos. 3-8

6. Trae Young | PG | Age: 19.6 | Oklahoma
Young first burst onto the scouting scene at the 2015 Nike Global Challenge in Chicago. Then a scrawny, inefficient, bucket-getting guard, he started to gain more traction on the Nike EYBL Circuit, posting monster numbers. Young wasn't seen as a surefire one-and-done caliber prospect because of his underwhelming frame, streaky shooting and sometimes-spotty point guard skills. Then he turned into must-see TV every game for his hometown Sooners, splashing 30-footers, firing darts all over the court and emerging as a likely top-10 pick, even with existing concerns about his defensive upside. Oklahoma went 2-9 over its final 11 games, though, and Young's efficiency took a hit, raising some questions about his durability over the course of an 82-game season. -- Schmitz


Deadly pull-up shooter with deep range. Loves transition quick hitters. Kills pick-and-roll under coverages.

Shifty ball handler who has it on a string. Uses his pull-up threat to set up the rest of his game. Has a knack for drawing fouls despite his size.

Excellent passer (9.8 assists per 40 with a not-so-inspiring supporting cast). Should look even better with NBA spacing and talent around him.

Improvement areas

Underwhelming physical profile for a starting NBA point guard. How much will he be able to fill out? Lack of elite physical tools along with uninspiring effort lead to serious questions about who he'll be able to defend at the NBA level. While partially due to role, he showed a lack of toughness defensively at Oklahoma.

Struggles to finish in traffic against length and athleticism. Relied heavily on getting to the free throw line at the collegiate level -- 9.7 times per 40 -- but his efficiency took a dive when the whistles dried up.

Brilliant court vision but can be careless with the ball, especially in a crowd. Lack of elite size limits his ability to see over the top of the defense. Gets bumped off his spots. Turned the ball over on 20.6 percent of pick-and-roll possessions.

Projected role: Lead guard

Physical comps
Trae Young 18.1 6-2 176 6-4
Shabazz Napier 22.8 6-1 175 6-3.25
Joe Young 22.9 6-2 182 6-5
Raul Neto 21.1 6-2 179 6-4
Range: Nos. 6-10

7. Wendell Carter Jr. | C | Age: 19.0 | Duke
Already tipping the scales at nearly 250 pounds as a 15-year-old, Carter was identified very early on in his high school career as an elite prospect, making six appearances at different USA Basketball camps and events, being a leading player on gold medal-winning teams at the U16 and U17 levels. An early bloomer physically who was able to dominate his peers inside the paint, Carter did a nice job of continuing to add to his game, eventually finding some range on his jumper and improving his versatility as a passer and defender. Carter got off to a slow start as a freshman, struggling to adapt to an unfamiliar role alongside Bagley, but he showed his quality as the season moved on and ended up posting impressive numbers. -- Givony


Strong physical profile. Powerful and explosive off two feet. Uses verticality to protect the rim.

Polished, versatile, intelligent player on both ends of the floor. Has soft hands to go along with strong footwork and touch. Good shooting mechanics; made 19 of 46 3s (41 percent) to go along with 74 percent of his free throws. Good passer and rebounder.

Lauded for his outstanding intangibles as a worker and teammate. Has a very high floor.

Improvement areas

Not as explosive as some of his peers. Floor is high, but ceiling is also lower.

Looks heavy-footed at times trying to defend in space. Might struggle to step out in pick-and-roll situations. Has good instincts, but will need to continue to hone his technique.

Doesn't always play with the type of physicality and confidence you might hope, especially in pressure-packed situations. Comfortable blending in.

Projected role: Starting fills-in-the-blanks center

Physical comps
Wendell Carter Jr. 18 6-10 257 7-3
Emeka Okafor 21.8 6-10 257 7-4
Carlos Boozer 20.6 6-9.5 258 7-2.25
Al Jefferson 19.5 6-9.75 263 7-2.5
Range: Nos. 5-10

8. Michael Porter Jr. | SF/PF | Age: 19.8 | Missouri
Arguably the most decorated high school player in his class, the RSCI No. 2 recruit was historically productive on the Nike EYBL circuit. He struggled in a preseason scrimmage against Kansas and eventually left the Tigers' season opener against Iowa State due to injury after two minutes of action. Porter underwent back surgery in late November and was expected to miss the entire 2017-18 campaign. After close to four months off, he made something of a surprise return for the SEC and NCAA tournaments, looking understandably out of shape. The pre-draft process will be crucial, as teams will want to dig deeper into his medical file while also researching the type of teammate he was during his time at Missouri, as his background intel has been far from glowing. From a talent perspective, Porter is one of the more gifted players in this draft. -- Schmitz


Excellent size and reach for a modern forward (9-foot standing reach). Light on his feet when healthy.

Versatile scorer as a mismatch 4. Impressive on-the-move shooter for a player his size. Can pick-and-pop to space, sprint off screens or rise up off the dribble, even from beyond NBA 3 at times.

Good instincts on the glass and defensively when fully engaged.

Improvement areas

Plays with a high center of gravity and slight hunch on both ends. Struggles to beat opposing wings off the dribble. Questions about his long-term health and durability.

Not the toughest prospect you'll find, partially due to his thin base. Gets knocked off balance on his way to the rim.

Doesn't think the game at a high level. Plays catch-and-hold basketball. One of the oldest freshmen in the draft.

Projected role: Mismatch forward

Physical comps
Michael Porter Jr. 19.3 6-10.25 212 7-0
Paul George 20.2 6-8.75 214 6-11.25
Sam Dekker 21.0 6-9 219 6-11.5
Moe Harkless 19.1 6-8.75 207 7-0
Range: Nos. 7-14

9. Collin Sexton | PG | Age: 19.3 | Alabama
Late bloomer who was completely under the radar until the spring before his senior year of high school. Went onto lead the U17 national team to a gold medal, winning MVP honors along the way. SEC freshman of the year at Alabama. Was inconsistent at times in his lone season in college, partially due to minor injuries, but came on huge down the stretch, helping the Crimson Tide secure an NCAA tournament berth before bowing out in the second round to eventual champion Villanova. -- Givony


Brash, ultra-confident competitor who plays the game with boundless energy and a huge chip on his shoulder. Worker off the floor.

Not overly tall, but strong and long. Athletic guard who can play above the rim in space and has hxcellent burst in the open floor. Strong ball handler who operates at different speeds effectively. Moves the defense and gets into the paint frequently.

Instinctive scorer and off-the-dribble shot-maker who struggled with efficiency, but still made 3s at a nice volume while hitting 78 percent of his free throws.

Improvement areas

Skill level is a work in progress. Court vision is average. At his best in drive-and-dish situations. Tends to overdribble. Gets very wild with his decision-making at times.

Not the biggest guard. Can he stay healthy playing the same relentless style?

Two-foot jumper who was very reliant on drawing fouls at the college level. Lack of size affects him in traffic. Finished just 46 percent of his half-court attempts in the paint.

Projected role: Lead guard

Physical comps
Collin Sexton 18.8 6-1.5 185 6-7
Patrick Beverley 20.9 6-1.5 179 6-6.5
Eric Bledsoe 20.6 6-1.5 192 6-7.5
Chris Duhon 21.8 6-1.25 193 6-6.5
Range: Nos. 6-12

10. Mikal Bridges | SF | Age: 21.6 | Villanova
A fringe top-100 recruit, the late-blooming Bridges wasn't seen as a lock NBA player prior to his ascension at Villanova. After impressive showings at both Adidas Nations and the Nike Basketball Academy going into his junior season, Bridges looked more and more like a 2018 first-round pick. He made yet another jump, averaging 17.7 points in 32 minutes for the national-champion Wildcats while posting a 66.1 true shooting percentage. Bridges has his offensive limitations and benefited from playing in Villanova's system, but there's no question he's one of the safer prospects in this range. -- Schmitz


Tremendous measurables for a wing. Long strides to the rim.

Extremely efficient offensive player (led Power 5 conference players in half-court efficiency). Greatly improved shooter who has excellent balance. Knocked down 2.6 3s per game at a 43.5 percent clip as a junior (and ranked in the 94th percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy).

Has the tools to be a versatile defender at the NBA level, especially guarding 1-3. Averaged 2.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40.

Improvement areas

Limited ball handler who isn't going to create much offense. Struggles to make shots off the dribble.

Can be a bit passive at times. Lacks a degree of physicality and toughness. Has worked to add to his frame but still 204 pounds. How much 4 can he play? Average rebounder.

Not always the defender he should be given his length. Gets beaten off the dribble more than you'd hope.

Projected role: 3-and-D wing

Physical comps
Mikal Bridges 21.3 6-7 204 7-2
Kelly Oubre 19.4 6-6.75 203 7-2.25
Robert Covington 22.5 6-7.5 209 7-1.75
Wesley Johnson 23.0 6-7.25 206 7-1.75
Range: Nos. 8-14

11. Miles Bridges | SF/PF | Age: 20.1 | Michigan State
Born in Flint, Michigan, Bridges moved to Huntington Prep (Andrew Wiggins' alma mater) in West Virginia at age 15 for his final two seasons of high school to attempt to improve his national stature. He made a big jump from there, emerging as a top-15 recruit, and then proceeded to have an outstanding first season at Michigan State. Things didn't work out exactly as planned after returning to school, as Bridges' numbers stagnated to an extent and his team lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Bridges is still a likely lottery pick and could certainly be selected in the top 10 considering his fit in today's NBA. -- Givony


Chiseled, powerful athlete. Vertically explosive. Potential dunk-contest participant.

Has made 3-pointers with nice volume consistently. Converted 38 percent from beyond the arc at the college level. Can shoot coming off screens with time and space.

Excellent potential defensively with the strength and quickness to guard multiple positions. Terrific rebounder. Solid passer. Lauded for his off-court intangibles.

Improvement areas

Clunky ball handler who struggled to create offense efficiently in the half court. Didn't get to the free throw line much. Pull-up jumper looks crude and he was very streaky.

Ideally would see a lot of minutes operating as a small-ball 4 but 6-foot-9 wingspan is on the shorter side.

At his best playing off of stars. Might struggle if asked to take on too heavy of a scoring load.

Projected role: 3-and-D combo forward

Physical comps
Miles Bridges 18.2 6-6.25 226 6-8.75
Solomon Hill 22.3 6-7 226 6-9
Matt Barnes 22.3 6-8 226 6-9
Joe Johnson 19.9 6-8 226 6-9
Range: Nos. 6-13

12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG/SG | Age: 19.8 | Kentucky
Gilgeous-Alexander grew up around athletics and has been praised by coaches at every level for his work ethic. He had some nice moments during the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit week but appeared to be far from certain to spend only one year in Lexington. He eventually emerged as Kentucky's most valuable player and is now likely a lock to be drafted in the lottery given his tools and feel. -- Schmitz


Elite size and length for a lead guard. Slithery athlete who gets to spots on the floor with long strides. Impressive side-to-side agility.

Polished ball-screen player. Splits screens instinctually. Good pace as a facilitator. Can pass or finish with either hand. Crafty around the rim. Improved standstill shooter.

Tools to become a multi-positional defender in time. Good instincts.

Improvement areas

Not overly explosive or physical. Gets by on skill and craft. PG skills could still use some polish.

How will he score in the half court? Slow, flat-footed pull-up that's easy to contest.

Not always the defender he could be. Reaches rather than contains. Level of toughness is inconsistent.

Projected role: Lead guard

Physical comps
Gilgeous-Alexander 19.2 6-6 182 7-0
Shaun Livingston 18.8 6-7.5 186 6-11
Patrick McCaw 20.5 6-6.75 181 6-10
Justin Holiday 22.2 6-7 177 7-0.5
Range: Nos. 8-14

13. Robert Williams | C | Age: 20.5 | Texas A&M
Williams was a late bloomer who took a while to grow into his frame and flew under the radar of most recruiting services until the spring before his senior year. His size, frame and athleticism continued to evolve and it became clear early in his freshman season at A&M that he has the type of physical attributes NBA teams desire. Things didn't go exactly according to plan when he decided to return to school. Williams was suspended for the first two games of 2017-18 and ended up having an inconsistent season in which his offensive numbers stagnated. This was partially due to a very poor situation; the team was loaded in the frontcourt but had little in the way of shooting or playmaking. Williams showed his significant potential late, helping Texas A&M reach the Sweet 16 and solidifying himself as a lottery-caliber prospect. -- Givony


Prototype physically. Explosive athlete who covers ground unbelievably and is incredibly fast off his feet. Tremendous lob target.

Great defensive potential. Blocks shots on the interior and perimeter; switches onto smaller players. No. 1 rebounder and No. 3 shot-blocker among likely draft picks on a per-minute basis.

Better passer than you might think. Has some upside as a shooter.

Improvement areas

Doesn't have a consistent means of scoring. Plays very sped-up and settles for jumpers more than you'd hope. Feel for the game is a major work in progress.

Doesn't always make the type of impact defensively he should. Relies too much on his talent and tools. Bites on fakes. Doesn't box out. Rarely keeps his blocks in bounds.

Boom-or-bust prospect. No question about his talent, but there are concerns about his motor and overall approach to the game.

Projected role: Rim-protecting, vertical-spacing center

Physical comps
Robert Williams 20.0 6-10 240 7-5.5
Dwight Howard 18.6 6-10.25 240 7-4.5
Derrick Favors 19.0 6-10.25 245 7-4
Clint Capela 19.9 6-11 222 7-4.5
Range: Nos. 8-14

14. Lonnie Walker IV | SG | Age: 19.4 | Miami
Walker started to make rumblings as a prospect in 2015 on the EYBL circuit and later turned heads as co-MVP of the 2017 Jordan Brand Classic thanks to his explosiveness and shot-making. He was slowed by a torn meniscus before his freshman season at Miami but played in all 32 games, showing some tremendous flashes while also underwhelming for long stretches. Although not always reliable, he's one of the most gifted guards in the class and could rise during the pre-draft process. -- Schmitz


Impressive combination of length, strength and explosiveness. Plays above the rim with ease in space. Tremendous in transition. Potential to develop into a 2-3 position defender in time.

Dynamic on-the-move shot-maker. Can rise into his jumper off the dribble or sprint into catch-and-shoot jumpers off screens.

Not a great ball handler now, but ability to get to his pull-up along with his raw athleticism gives him potential to develop into a ball-screen threat and potential shot-creator in time. High upside.

Improvement areas

Goes long stretches without having much of an impact. How does he contribute to winning when he's not making shots? Needs to add more value as a defender and rebounder.

Struggles to get past experienced defenders because of his handle. Can improve his decision-making.

Shooter who doesn't always make enough? Impressive mechanics but a bit more streaky than you'd hope.

Projected role: Scoring two-way guard

Physical comps
Lonnie Walker IV 17.8 6-4.25 206 6-10.5
Victor Oladipo 21.2 6-4.25 213 6-9.25
Donovan Mitchell 20.7 6-3 211 6-10
Norman Powell 22.0 6-4.25 215 6-10.75
Range: Nos. 10-14

You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
Insider/Givony 18 NBA Draft Lottery Prospects-Comps, Projections, Strengths and Weaknesses

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