MUDIAY VS. PAYTON: A Little Nugget of Truth(2/11/18, Copyright-protected with Myows)
** all stats current as of day trade was finalized **
Knicks fan here. I’m a freelance writer by trade with a growing portfolio. You won’t see me on Bleacher Report or one of those hack sites because I actually value my work and prefer to preserve copyrights. This was written yesterday on short notice...
Emmanuel Mudiay was New York’s big acquisition in the wake of Willy Hernangomez being scapegoated to Siberia last Wednesday, and some fans have come away disappointed and confused in the process. Wasn’t Elfrid Payton rumored to be their target? This is a quick write-up just to educate the doubters and curmudgeons out there. Hopefully, some of you will come away feeling a bit better about Scott Perry electing to trade for the mercurial Nugget instead. Let’s get to it, shall we?
So, right off the bat, Elfrid Payton and Emmanuel Mudiay seemed like near identical options at the trade deadline. They’re big, young, athletic point guards who crash the lane, can pass a little, and have equally suspect jumpshots. Same as Michael Carter Williams, same as Rondo, same as Rubio, same as Rose post-ACL, etc., etc. Payton is largely recognized as the more consistent, steady performer, whereas Mudiay’s stock as a prospect is based off his higher upside.
- Both players have a knack for half-court penetration and transition playmaking.
- They both suffer from general shooting woes.
- They’ve more or less failed to justify being drafted in the lottery (#6 and #10 respectively).
- Neither has met their defensive potential, despite having great physical metrics.
Yadda, yadda, yadda.
So that’s the general consensus, but this is where we come to a fork in the road with a big ass sign that says “THE TRUTH” (no, not Paul Pierce).
Let’s dig a little deeper and go down that road…
#1. ATHLETICISM
Mudiay is a much more explosive physical threat with higher upside, somewhat in the same mold as a young Tyreke Evans. He’s a bull. Although he doesn’t have elite hops or end-to-end speed, he does have elite change of direction, an elite first step, and creative footwork. These are signs of a player that can one day score effectively and adapt in half-court sets. He clearly has a strong MCL given his Dwyane Wade/Manu Ginobili-esque Euro-step (as you no doubt witnessed last night against the Pacers).
Payton is a good athlete with good height (6-4’) and a 35.5 inch vertical. (Mudiay sat out the combine, as did Porzingis by the way, but if I were to measure based on experience I’d speculate his vert is lower by a few inches). Elfrid is faster in the open court, due in large part to his superior ballhandling.
Unlike Payton, who is a bit of a stick, Mudiay has a bigger frame (listed at 6-5’, 200 lbs) with a wider wingspan (6-8.5’), which lends itself to bulking up to play the 2 or even the 3 if necessary (think Lance Stephenson). That kind of strong physique coupled with elite lateral quickness is exactly what allowed Lebron, for example, to be so versatile and flexible on defense in his prime – the ability to guard multiple positions well depending on the matchup. Mudiay has that potential. Payton, at 185 lbs soaking wet, does not. This is an important distinction, especially in today’s heavy emphasis on switching and position-less basketball.
Advantage: MUDIAY
#2. SCORING
I’ll get right to the gist and point out that Payton’s 52% FG percentage this season is a unique instance of a ginormously misleading, inflated statistic. On the surface, it looks great, sure. Among the best for guards in the NBA, in fact. Until you apply some context. 52% is by no means unimpressive, but when you account for all of his shooting numbers across the board you start to see a troubling pattern. He’s still dreadful from the charity stripe, in the low 60’s, and free throw shooting is the gold standard 99% of the time (Ricky Rubio serving as the exception to the rule). I don’t want my PG being a liability in the 4th quarter.
And while Elfrid’s pumped his 3-point accuracy up to 37%, that’s really just a flash in the pan: he’s doing it on only 1.5 attempts per game; hardly impactful. To that point, he doesn’t even make one 3 per game. He makes 0.6. Let that sink in. What DID happen, clearly, is that he’s restricted his offense to only the paint after having it drilled in his head that HE…CANNOT…SHOOT. Or maybe he’s scared to. I think it’s a combination of both. Either way, Elfrid’s scoring has reached a ceiling. To put it bluntly: even Ason Kidd (because he had no “J”) managed to improve to 80% at the line in his 4th year.
Payton’s had plenty of minutes and opportunities as a starter in Orlando under a good coach to mature. Instead, his production has become stagnant and leveled off, even his rebounding and oddly enough his FT attempts (same exact rate for 4 consecutive seasons). What you see is what you get with Elfrid Payton – a competent and unselfish, albeit limited, fast-pace point guard that legitimately can’t stroke it from distance, and actually avoids doing so.
Emmanuel, on the other hand, has shown much more promising improvements. His FG%, FT%, and 3 PT % are all simultaneously at career highs, despite wild fluctuations in minutes and shot attempts. In just his 3rd season he’s converting on over 80% from the line. He hits one 3 per game on 2.5 attempts at the exact same 37% as Payton, indicating he’ll be a more meaningful threat from deep in the future. One stat even shows him hovering near 60% from the corner. (Insert “Veray Nayce” thumbs up gif).
Feel free to look up their individual accuracy charts, but their PPS and PP100 (Points Per Shot and Points Per 100 Possessions) are basically a draw. Emmanuel is younger and surging in spite of the diminished role in Denver. Elfrid is older and has a trajectory that’s flattened out completely. All Mudiay needs to do to is consolidate his shot selection. That, and stop lunging his body into defenders and crashing to the floor like a big, drunk toddler. Seriously...he’s going to break his coccyx.
Advantage: EVEN, but MUDIAY long-term
#3. DEFENSE
“Advanced” stats show them both to be, well, awful. There’s really no point in trying to dissect who’s worse. As highlighted in the breakdown of their athleticism, however, I’ll take the kid who’s bigger, stronger, younger, with better lateral foot speed. Payton does rack up more steals, though. And if he ever gets back on track he might one day fulfill his vaunted defensive promise. Unfortunately, he’s regressed badly each year. This trend is frankly as disgusting as his combover, and in a contract year no less.
Considering the risk you’d have taken, forced to either resign him this offseason or outright lose him in free agency, I’d say a big, fat “No, thanks.” Mudiay has some time to figure things out, which may not be saying much. But it’s still something.
Advantage: EVEN, but Mudiay long-term
#4. PLAYMAKING
I’ll keep this short and sweet – Payton has been a better playmaker thus far his entire career. Every metric favors him. He dishes more assists with a higher A/T ratio to boot. That doesn’t necessarily make him a better or more cerebral PASSER. He’s not. It just means he’s a more conventional, more efficient PG.
It’s important to note that his assist numbers have, as alluded to, already leveled off at around 6.5 per game. He hasn’t improved, which is a glaring red flag. Mudiay, to his credit, did average 5.5 as a starter his rookie year, and has shown the ability to drop dimes with a high degree of difficulty. But he really needs to tone down those turnovers if he ever hopes to become a dependable floor general. Time will tell if he can.
Advantage: PAYTON
#5. COST CONTROL
Mudiay’s still on a cost-controlled rookie scale through next season. That can’t be overstated. Payton needs to be resigned THIS summer, with only a handful of games to assess his value (no Porzingis). And despite current predictions, it only takes one stupid GM (they replicate like Smallpox in the NBA) to offer him a bloated contract (Exhibit A: Phil Jackson). I expect him to receive a similar deal as Jordan Clarkson – somewhere in the ballpark of 4/48.
Oh, and they were essentially dealt for the same package – a middle of the pack 2nd round pick. So that’s a wash if it makes you feel any better. Dougie McBuckets had little value around the league and was included solely as a RFA salary filler, whereas the Suns simply ate Payton’s cost on their end (Knicks couldn’t straight up absorb Emmanuel since they’re over the cap).
This one’s a no brainer.
Advantage: MUDIAY
#6. HAIR
Mudiay needs to hit up a barber. Payton needs to take a chainsaw to that ferret on his head and drop it off at a mortuary.
Advantage: THE MORTICIAN
In summation, keep in mind it took Victor Oladipo 5 SEASONS (at age 25) to become an All-Star.
So…BE HAPPY, BE PATIENT KNICKS FANS. AND HAVE A GOOD MUDIAY.
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2/12/2018 11:29 PM