Emmanuel Mudiay trade grades for Knicks, Nuggets and Mavericks deal - NBA
by Kevin Pelton on (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22371174/emmanuel-mudiay-trade-grades-knicks-nuggets-mavericks-deal-nba)The deal
Knicks get: Guard Emmanuel Mudiay
Nuggets get: Guard Devin Harris
Mavericks get: Forward Doug McDermott, Portland's 2018 second-round pick
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New York Knicks: B
A past Knicks regime surely took a close look at Mudiay leading into the 2015 NBA Draft before taking Kristaps Porzingis No. 4 overall. A little less than three years later, New York adds Mudiay for a fraction of the price: a pick in the middle of the second round and McDermott, soon to be a restricted free agent.
Naturally, Mudiay's value has gone the wrong direction since then. Three years into his NBA career, he's still struggling to reach replacement level. But Mudiay won't be 22 until next month and point guards tend to develop later than their peers at other positions, so this deal makes sense as a gamble on his potential.
The good news is this is the most efficient season of Mudiay's career. The bad news is that still means a .504 true shooting percentage, far worse than the league average of .557. Despite making a robust 37 percent of his 3s this season, Mudiay still hasn't been efficient because he's making just 41 percent of his 2-point attempts. More than anything else, poor finishing (he's shot 49 percent for his career within three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com) has held Mudiay back.
It wouldn't hurt if Mudiay looked to distribute a little bit more than calling his own number. He's used 25 percent of the Nuggets' plays this season, too high a rate given his performance.
The downside here is that New York has now accumulated two shoot-first guards with lottery pedigree (Mudiay and Trey Burke) alongside veteran Jarrett Jack and rookie lottery pick Frank Ntilikina. Though Ntilikina's ability to play off the ball gives Jeff Hornacek some flexibility, I'd hate to see the rookie get stuck strictly spotting up when playing with either Burke or Mudiay. Presumably the Knicks are cognizant of this possibility and will work to avoid it.
Denver Nuggets: B-
Mudiay's name has been floated in trade rumors since the Nuggets drafted fellow point guard Jamal Murray a year later, and it looks like they waited too long to strike. Mudiay's value proved close to negligible, as Denver got only a veteran rental and the chance to move up a couple of spots in the second round. (If the season were to end today, the Portland pick the Nuggets gave up would be three or four picks worse than the one they got originally belonging to the LA Clippers.)
At the same time, there is a playoff race to consider, and Mudiay was a drag on that effort. The Nuggets' minus-8.6 net rating during Mudiay's 752 minutes of action (via NBA Advanced Stats) is bad enough to cause anyone who sees it unexpectedly to reenact The Scream.
Mudiay's performance had been so troublesome that Denver coach Michael Malone had opted not to use a backup point guard at times, turning the offense over to Will Barton as primary playmaker. Those lineups have managed just 103.4 points per 100 possessions, per NBA Advanced Stats, though they've made up ground defensively.
Harris should be a better option the rest of the season. He's both capable of running the offense and comfortable spotting up, having spent most of the last few seasons playing alongside multiple ballhandlers in Rick Carlisle's many-headed point guard hydra lineups.
Given just a game separates the sixth-place Nuggets from the Clippers, currently outside the playoff picture at ninth in the Western Conference, the difference between Mudiay (or no point guard) and Harris could be meaningful.
Assuming Denver had given up on Mudiay, getting off his $4.3 million salary for 2018-19 also has value. If the Nuggets decline Nikola Jokic's team option and re-sign him to a longer, more lucrative deal, they'll go over the luxury tax, so Mudiay's salary was consequential.
Dallas Mavericks: B+
The Mavericks found themselves in the right place at the right time to give Denver a backup point guard and participate in this deal. For their trouble, they'll net a not-terrible second-round pick (No. 48 or 49 overall at the moment) and the rights to McDermott as a restricted free agent.
Slotting McDermott into Harris' spot in the rotation next to Jose Barea will give Dallas a very different look -- less ballhandling, but somewhat more shooting. McDermott's cutting ability, showcased in New York, should also be valuable working on the weak side of Carlisle's offense. I would be cautious paying much to retain McDermott given his defensive shortcomings, but the Mavericks can make that choice this summer.
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2/8/2018 5:53 PM
