Kevin Pelton - Ranking Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum and top 10 NBA rookies so far
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Kevin Pelton - Ranking Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum and top 10 NBA rookies so far
by Kevin Pelton on 2017-12-10 13:01:00 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21825051/kevin-pelton-ranking-lonzo-ball-jayson-tatum-top-10-nba-rookies-far)Ben Simmons or Jayson Tatum? What about Donovan Mitchell? Where do Lonzo Ball and fellow Lakers rookie Kyle Kuzma land?
In the first incarnation of ESPN Insider's rookie rankings, I'll be breaking down the top 10 first-year players in terms of how much they've done to help their teams win so far with guidance from advanced statistics. And while that process might mean some surprising results, it also confirms conventional wisdom about the top players in what has so far been a strong rookie class.
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1. Ben Simmons | PG | Philadelphia 76ers
After an incredible start, Simmons has slowed down a bit in December, becoming more playmaker than scorer. Simmons is averaging just 13.2 points per 36 minutes this month, down from 18.8 beforehand, largely because he's attempting fewer shots. At the same time, Simmons' assist rate is up to 8.7 per 36 minutes. So while Simmons' versatility index has declined slightly, it's still the best on record for a rookie.
That versatility is a big factor in Simmons rating as the league's best rookie in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) (plus-2.5 points per 100 possessions). When it comes to value, Simmons' durability is also a plus. He's averaging 36.7 minutes per game, which would be the most for a rookie since Damian Lillard in 2012-13 (38.6).
2. Jayson Tatum | SF | Boston Celtics
Simmons coming back to the pack has helped Tatum make this a two-man race for Rookie of the Year at this point. He's actually ahead of Simmons in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, though Simmons has the advantage in Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus stat as well as RPM.
Of course, Tatum is almost certainly due for some regression of his own from 3-point range. He continues to shoot a league-high 51.5 percent on 3s, a rate that would be hard to sustain for anyone, let alone a rookie who shot just 34.2 percent from the shorter NCAA line last season. (Amazingly, Tatum has been even better on 3s in December than the season's first six weeks, hitting nearly 59 percent of them.)
However, Tatum has been good enough elsewhere -- making better than 50 percent of his 2s while attempting four free throws for every 10 field-goal attempts and making them at an 83.6 percent clip -- to remain efficient even when his 3-point shooting inevitably drops off. And Tatum has also proven a quick study as part of the NBA's best defense.
3. Donovan Mitchell | G | Utah Jazz
Having joined a team in desperate need of shot creation after losing Gordon Hayward to the Celtics, Mitchell is carrying an unusually heavy load for a rookie. The 28.9 percent of the Jazz's plays Mitchell is using with a shot attempt, trip to the free throw line or turnover is one of the highest rates for a rookie since player turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78.
Highest usage rates, rookies
Player Season Team Usage
Joel Embiid 2016-17 PHI .362
Ben Gordon 2004-05 CHI .319
Mark Aguirre 1981-82 DAL .298
Michael Jordan 1984-85 CHI .298
Glenn Robinson 1994-95 MIL .291
Allen Iverson 1996-97 PHI .290
Donovan Mitchell 2017-18 UTA .289
Kyrie Irving 2011-12 CLE .289
Ron Harper 1986-87 CLE .289
Since 1977-78; minimum 20 mpg
So why doesn't Mitchell rank as more valuable by all-in-one statistics? While he's gotten his efficiency to an acceptable point, posting an impressive .599 true shooting percentage after languishing at a miserable .409 in October, Mitchell's adjusted true shooting percentage still lags behind Tatum and a handful of rookies in smaller roles.
(Adjusted true shooting percentage estimates the true shooting percentage a player would shoot if using plays at a league-average rate given the typical relationship between usage and efficiency, putting players like Mitchell who are asked to create their own offense on a more level playing field.)
Adjusted true shooting, rookies
Player Team Usage TS aTS
Jayson Tatum BOS .176 .648 .636
John Collins ATL .202 .624 .625
Kyle Kuzma LAL .218 .587 .596
OG Anunoby TOR .128 .620 .584
Donovan Mitchell UTA .289 .532 .577
4. OG Anunoby | SF | Toronto Raptors
Along with Tatum, Anunoby is one of two rookies playing an important role on a contending team. It took the Indiana product less than a month to crack the Raptors' starting five, seemingly for good. They've gone 13-3 in his 16 starts, and Toronto's new starting five is outscoring opponents by 21 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats. No wonder Anunoby is nearly the equal of Simmons and Tatum (plus-2.4) when it comes to his RPM (plus-2.3).
Assuming the ACL he tore in January healed properly, there was never much question that Anunoby would be an effective defender. But he's proven far more advanced offensively than expected. Like Tatum, Anunoby is probably due for some 3-point regression (he's shooting 43.0 percent after hitting 31.1 percent last college season). Beyond that, he's flashed surprising playmaking ability and excellent decision making.
5. John Collins | F/C | Atlanta Hawks
Because he's coming off the bench for a 7-23 team, Collins' production has been somewhat overshadowed. Quietly, he's averaging 17.7 points and 11.1 rebounds per 36 minutes while making an even 60 percent of his 2-point attempts. Collins' explosiveness around the basket has helped him record 49 dunks, the league's eighth-highest total per Basketball-Reference.com.
With those high-percentage finishes, Collins' 54.4 percent shooting as a roll man in the pick-and-roll ranks seventh among players with at least 50 such attempts according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
6. Jordan Bell | PF | Golden State Warriors
Bell -- not Simmons or Tatum -- has the best box plus-minus rating among rookies who have played more than 250 minutes. Bell was fortunate to land in the best possible situation for a rookie, joining the defending NBA champions at a position of need.
Within the context of that role, he's proven exceptionally versatile, pairing the above-the-rim finishing (72.2 percent shooting) and shot blocking (7.3 percent block rate, tops among rookies) the Warriors get from JaVale McGee with the high-post playmaking they get from David West (5.0 assists per 100 team plays, a rate better than the average shooting guard).
7. Lonzo Ball | PG | Los Angeles Lakers
Since I mentioned it in last week's discussion of the Lakers' young players, Ball has continued to improve his efficiency to the point where his many other skills can shine through. He ranks fifth among rookies in WARP, ahead of Bell (who rates far better on a per-minute basis) and Anunoby (whose defensive value is not fully reflected by box-score stats).
8. Kyle Kuzma | PF | Los Angeles Lakers
Having Kuzma this low will surely come as a surprise to most fans, particularly because he does rate well in terms of scoring efficiency.
As I noted last week, Kuzma has made little defensive impact in terms of steals and blocks, and according to NBA.com/Stats the Lakers are allowing 7.3 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court. So Kuzma's defensive RPM ranks last among power forwards by a wide margin.
9. Lauri Markkanen | PF | Chicago Bulls
After a fast start, "Lauri Bird" has made just 31.4 percent of his 3-pointers since the start of November, causing his efficiency to sink below league average. Markkanen's impressive-looking defensive rebounding is also largely a product of playing with center Robin Lopez, one of the NBA's best big men at boxing out and allowing teammates to secure the board. (Markkanen's defensive rebound percentage drops from 26.4 percent playing with Lopez to 19.5 percent without him, per NBA.com/Stats.)
Still, Markkanen's shooting ability gives him strong gravity, and he's proven surprisingly solid defensively. So he belongs in the top 10.
10. Bam Adebayo | C | Miami Heat
With apologies to international veterans Bogdan Bogdanovic and Maxi Kleber, the last spot in my top 10 goes to the Heat's rookie center.
Much like Collins, Adebayo has proven a powerful finisher. More than half of his field goals (28 of 49) have been dunks, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Adebayo has also shined defensively on switches, a skill that should serve him well as he expands his role.
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12/21/2017 7:39 PM
