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2017 Draft and the idea of the Franchise Player
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Knixkik
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12/9/2017  9:36 AM
Evaluating this draft so far, one thing i have learned is it is so hard to land a true cornerstone player. I remember us talking about the scary possibility of trading Porzingis this summer for a pick that might land Josh Jackson or Fultz, hoping one of them could replace Porzingis as the great hope of the franchise. The funny thing about the draft is even though we need to be patient with a rookie's development, we pretty much know what type of player they will become in only a couple of months of watching them. We knew right away Porzingis had a chance to be special somewhere down the line. He was clearly ahead of Okafor and Russell in terms of potential, and it was obvious almost instantly.

This year, we are seeing a lot of rookies who are underwhelming considering this was supposed to be a draft that produced many stars. All of these guys will get better of course, but we can already tell right away who is ahead of, or behind the curve. Ball is struggling, Jackson is struggling, Monk is in and out of the rotation all together. Mitchell is a revelation and complete surprise. He is going to be very good. Tatum too. But none of these guys scream franchise player. A few will be all-stars most likely, and a lot more will be quality starters. Ntilikina, who is the youngest of the bunch, has made it pretty clear the type of player he will become. Great defender, average offensive player, good starting guard, but unlikely to be a star. The past 2 drafts have produced just 1 player in Ben Simmons that it looks like can become a superstar you can build around. Even in the highly regarded drafts, it just shows how hard it is to find great players.

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BigDaddyG
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12/9/2017  12:12 PM
Guys like LeBron, Simmons etc. are aberrations. It's not like back in the day where you have mentally and physically developed guys entering their first years. You're rolling the dice on kids and you have to project where they'll end physically and skill wise. That takes years. Unfortunately, many GMs don't have the luxury to wait that long. Look at Hinkie, who add ownerships blessing in the beginning. Remember how everyone loved Towns, even over our unicorn last year? Now we're hearing the narrative that Town's is lazy and doesn't play D. The truth is Towns is still a kid who's learning the game and we still don't know where his game will end up by his fifth season. You have to take everything with a grain of salt. That said, you can't project much of anything 1/4 into the season. Brandon Jennings would've been the answer to our PG prayers and Steph Curry would be relegated to some sixth-man scoring role if that was the case.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
GustavBahler
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12/9/2017  2:01 PM    LAST EDITED: 12/9/2017  2:03 PM
You left out Smith Jr. Thought that Fulz and Tatum would be impact players. Tatum (last time I checked) was the best 3 point shooter in the league. Fulz I believe will show he was worth the wait. Even with his ups and downs, Ball is showing he was worth the pick.

As far as franchise players, thats about BPA, than finding a player for a team's system. Doesnt matter what position he plays. Cant go for a system pick.

CrushAlot
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12/9/2017  2:13 PM
Rookie ladder for this week: 1. Simmons, 2. Mithchell, 3. Tatum, 4. Kuzma, 5. Smith jr. There is a ton of talent there. I think you have to assume that these guys are going to develop and get better. Philly has done the right thing with their injured rookies so I would assume that Fultz will end up being an all star caliber player and not the guy that couldn't shoot with his shoulder the way it was. I also think Ball will be a very good player down the road.
http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder#/
You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
BigDaddyG
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12/9/2017  2:21 PM
GustavBahler wrote:You left out Smith Jr. Thought that Fulz and Tatum would be impact players. Tatum (last time I checked) was the best 3 point shooter in the league. Fulz I believe will show he was worth the wait. Even with his ups and downs, Ball is showing he was worth the pick.

As far as franchise players, thats about BPA, than finding a player for a team's system. Doesnt matter what position he plays. Cant go for a system pick.


I don't see super star in DSJ right now. Physical talent is there, but game needs work. I don't understand why people keep forgetting about Kuzma. Is his perceived ceiling lower? What he's doing is amazing for a first year player. I think Markkanen also has "star" potential. As for Ball, he was picked too high. Fox, who is also, struggling, looks like the better prospect. It's still too early tho...
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
CrushAlot
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12/9/2017  2:25 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:You left out Smith Jr. Thought that Fulz and Tatum would be impact players. Tatum (last time I checked) was the best 3 point shooter in the league. Fulz I believe will show he was worth the wait. Even with his ups and downs, Ball is showing he was worth the pick.

As far as franchise players, thats about BPA, than finding a player for a team's system. Doesnt matter what position he plays. Cant go for a system pick.


I don't see super star in DSJ right now. Physical talent is there, but game needs work. I don't understand why people keep forgetting about Kuzma. Is his perceived ceiling lower? What he's doing is amazing for a first year player. I think Markkanen also has "star" potential. As for Ball, he was picked too high. Fox, who is also, struggling, looks like the better prospect. It's still too early tho...
I think the Knicks should make a run at Randle. With Kuzma and Nance, the Lakers will probably end up moving him. I have only watched him a couple of times this year but he has looked great.
You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
GustavBahler
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12/9/2017  2:29 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:You left out Smith Jr. Thought that Fulz and Tatum would be impact players. Tatum (last time I checked) was the best 3 point shooter in the league. Fulz I believe will show he was worth the wait. Even with his ups and downs, Ball is showing he was worth the pick.

As far as franchise players, thats about BPA, than finding a player for a team's system. Doesnt matter what position he plays. Cant go for a system pick.


I don't see super star in DSJ right now. Physical talent is there, but game needs work. I don't understand why people keep forgetting about Kuzma. Is his perceived ceiling lower? What he's doing is amazing for a first year player. I think Markkanen also has "star" potential. As for Ball, he was picked too high. Fox, who is also, struggling, looks like the better prospect. It's still too early tho...

Smith a future Superstar? IDK. Believe he will be making his share of all-star games. Thats the realistic objective in drafting lottery picks IMO. Thats the starting point for a franchise player. Cant be one without being an All-Star first.

Not forgetting about Kuzma, just didnt expect him to have this impact. Didn't know much about him.

Knixkik
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12/9/2017  3:46 PM
Dennis Smith definitely hasn't impressed me.
CrushAlot
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12/9/2017  5:15 PM
Woj podcast with Johnathon Givony. A lot of good stuff. Givony says Mitchell was the highest rated guy in the draft for intangibles.
https://art19.com/shows/thewojpod
You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
Paris907
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12/10/2017  11:16 PM
CrushAlot wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:You left out Smith Jr. Thought that Fulz and Tatum would be impact players. Tatum (last time I checked) was the best 3 point shooter in the league. Fulz I believe will show he was worth the wait. Even with his ups and downs, Ball is showing he was worth the pick.

As far as franchise players, thats about BPA, than finding a player for a team's system. Doesnt matter what position he plays. Cant go for a system pick.


I don't see super star in DSJ right now. Physical talent is there, but game needs work. I don't understand why people keep forgetting about Kuzma. Is his perceived ceiling lower? What he's doing is amazing for a first year player. I think Markkanen also has "star" potential. As for Ball, he was picked too high. Fox, who is also, struggling, looks like the better prospect. It's still too early tho...
I think the Knicks should make a run at Randle. With Kuzma and Nance, the Lakers will probably end up moving him. I have only watched him a couple of times this year but he has looked great.

Randle is a solid call. Particularly wKOQ on the block soon. Apparently he can guards 3s and 4s

TripleThreat
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12/11/2017  12:43 AM
When Steph Curry was a rookie

1) It was Corey Maggette's last year as a Warrior. He remains the crown jewel of pure chuckers. Even Kobe Bryant would blush around a shotjacker like Maggette.

2) Monta Ellis was already on the squad. Another gunner who never met a shot he didn't like

3) Don Nelson HATED rookie players

4) There was a really long era of the Warriors just sucking hard in the draft and in general. Some truly ugly years.

This is an example that a teams circumstances can make rookie player evaluations complicated. A player on a bad team in the East on a roster full of injuries around him is a different story than a player on a solid team in the West with depth.

Things you can initially determine

A) Can the player operate at NBA game speed

B) Will the players fundamentals erode, or not, given either playing at NBA game speed or attempting to do so

C) Can the player, at minimum, defend his "own weight" i.e. can he play without being a defensive liability on the floor.

Early burn is a hard gauge because part of the game is Move/Counter Move. You have a certain arsenal of moves and tendencies. The league gets a "book" on your skill set and adjusts. You must counter adjust to their adjustments. It's like game, a chess match, within the larger game itself. Given time, the players who can keep counter adjusting are going to show bigger leaps in development.

Joe Dumars is the gold standard. He's more known for being a mediocre GM. But in his prime, he was maybe the most underrated "complete" shooting guard in his era. You were not going to pin down what he was going to do. He'd adjust both long term, across a season, but also within a game itself.

It's only been a handful of games.

Much of the "hype" is really brands and networks trying to get a return on their investment. Every year, a new crop of rookies come in, and if you don't generate buzz early, you fall by the wayside in terms of marketing appeal. Tristan Thompson is an energy guy who has decided this year to stop caring. But his Q Rating has skyrocketed. Why? He's banging a Kardashian. "Hype" is not always relative to your actual status as an NBA player who can help a team win.

Trying to annoint guys stars or not now, is just a byproduct of buying into the sports media hype machine. It's not what someone really thinks, it's what they think they think, but it's just a regurgitated tagline shoved into their head by Nike's marketing department. Rookie lists work the same. Look at the agents of said players and who is sponsoring them, and the narrative is much clearer. There's a guy like Ari Gold telling fans who is awesome or not, most of them just believe what they are told.

Since you came on this board you have been way off in regards to trade value. - Briggs 7/28/2015
2017 Draft and the idea of the Franchise Player

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