martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Can anyone here with ESPN Insider post the article?

Bonn, I think Crush had posted this URL: http://insider2text.xyz/

NBA -- Did Knicks and Pacers win the Carmelo Anthony and Paul George trades with the Thunder?
Read
Markdown
HTML
NBA -- Did Knicks and Pacers win the Carmelo Anthony and Paul George trades with the Thunder?
by Kevin Pelton on 2017-12-14 06:09:00 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21661212/nba-did-knicks-pacers-win-carmelo-anthony-paul-george-trades-thunder)

When the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks square off Monday night at Madison Square Garden, it will be a reunion for four members of last year's Oklahoma City Thunder: Indiana's Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis and New York's Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.

Both the Pacers (Paul George) and the Knicks (Carmelo Anthony) traded veteran All-Stars to the Thunder this summer in deals that seemed to signify the beginning of a rebuilding process for the two Eastern Conference teams. Yet seven weeks into the season, Indiana (12-11) and New York (11-11) have better records than Oklahoma City (10-12). And while that's largely due to the Thunder's unsustainable futility in close games, the Knicks and Pacers are battling for playoff spots in an unexpectedly loaded East.

Did Indiana and New York actually get the better of their trades with Oklahoma City? Let's look at how the players involved have performed.

Oladipo outplaying George?
play
0:21
Oladipo throws down 360 dunk
Victor Oladipo makes a steal and finishes the easy fast break with a dunk in the third quarter.

Remarkably, Oladipo might have been the best player involved in the Pacers-Thunder trade so far this season.

Oladipo has thrived in a leading role, posting career highs in both usage rate (30.4 percent of Indiana's plays) and true shooting percentage (.586). As a result, Oladipo has produced 3.5 wins above replacement player (WARP), by my metric, so far this season, surpassing George's 3.2 WARP. While George holds the edge in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), both players rank in the league's top 20. And Oladipo holds the edge in Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player (VORP) metric, too.

Certainly, it's unusual for a player to both take on more offensive responsibility and become more efficient as Oladipo has thus far. The most common explanation is that the Pacers' offense better suits Oladipo than playing off the ball alongside MVP Russell Westbrook. It's undoubtedly true that Oladipo is handling the ball more this season -- his time of possession has increased about 60 percent, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA.com/Stats -- while his spot-up opportunities are down about half in terms of the proportion of his plays they make up.

At the same time, Oladipo shot an effective 52.7 percent on spot-up opportunities (adjusted for the additional value of 3-point shots), per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, last season as compared to 51.0 percent overall, so it wasn't apparent beforehand that fewer spot-ups would be a good thing.

Instead, I think Oladipo's improvement can be traced to his development shooting off the dribble. Already, Oladipo has made 24 pull-up 3-pointers, according to NBA.com/Stats, more than he made during the entire 2016-17 season (17). He's hitting them at a 47.1 percent clip, as compared to 32.3 percent beforehand, so this is an entirely new skill.

As I explained during the 2017 playoffs, pull-up 3s are valuable for not only the points they provide but also how they force defenses to change their pick-and-roll coverage. Indeed, Second Spectrum data shows defenders are going under Oladipo pick-and-rolls just 6.8 percent of the time this season as compared to 10.4 percent of the time last season. That additional defensive respect has helped Oladipo create 5.3 shots in the restricted area this year, up from 4.0 last season, according to NBA.com/Stats.

Sabonis thriving as center
play
0:15
Sabonis rolls to hoop for one-handed slam
Domantas Sabonis gets the feed on the pick-and-roll from Cory Joseph and throws down a one-handed dunk.

The other player the Pacers got from the Thunder has also made dramatic strides. Second-year big man Domantas Sabonis has increased his field-goal percentage from 39.9 percent as a rookie to 53.6 percent so far this season, which would be one of the 20 largest improvements since the ABA-NBA merger by a player with at least 150 attempts both seasons.

In Sabonis' case, the explanation is simpler: He's playing the right position. Miscast as a stretch-big alongside Steven Adams in Oklahoma City, Sabonis shot just 32.1 percent from 3-point range. Those 3s made up almost a third of Sabonis' shot attempts last season; that's down to 6.5 percent so far in 2017-18.

Indiana has largely used Sabonis as a center and put him in the pick-and-roll, taking advantage of his incredible finishing. Sabonis is making 73.2 percent of his attempts inside three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, and while that might come back to earth to some extent, it reflects the skill that made him a lottery pick.

There are two downsides to playing Sabonis at center. He isn't much of a rim protector, having blocked just seven shots all season. And the Pacers already have Myles Turner at center, which relegates Sabonis to a reserve role unless he can succeed at power forward. (Indiana has been more effective with either player alone than them together, via NBA.com/Stats.) Still, Sabonis looks like a useful rotation piece, and that wasn't clear after his inefficient rookie season with the Thunder.

Porzingis key to post-Melo Knicks
play
0:15
Porzingis connects with Kanter again for dunk
Kristaps Porzingis passes the ball to Enes Kanter, who drives around a defender for a two-handed dunk.

If you were designing a frontcourt partner for Enes Kanter in the lab, he'd probably look a lot like Kristaps Porzingis: capable of spacing the floor to give Kanter room to finish as well as helping him out with rim protection. Nobody in the NBA does both of those things better than Porzingis, so it's no surprise that Kanter shoots far more accurately (66.7 percent vs. 56.4 percent), and the Knicks are more successful (plus-2.6 net rating vs. minus-8.0, per NBA.com/Stats) when he plays with Porzingis.

Now, the Kanter-Porzingis partnership may not continue to be quite so effective. According to Second Spectrum data, Kanter's shot quality is little better when he plays with Porzingis, and overall the quantified quality of his shots this season is almost identical to his 2015-16 campaign in Oklahoma City -- when Kanter shot 57.6 percent as compared to his current 64.3 percent accuracy.

It's also true that a lot of centers could fill that role opposite Porzingis because of the latter's unique skills. That group probably includes New York backup Willy Hernangomez, who has been buried in the rotation behind Kanter and veteran Kyle O'Quinn after a strong rookie season. So Kanter may not be a huge upgrade for the Knicks.

The other player New York got (reserve forward Doug McDermott) is shooting a career-high 53.8 percent on 2-point attempts, but his value remains limited because of his defensive shortcomings. McDermott's minus-1.7 rating in RPM ranks 67th among small forwards.

Scraped at insider2text.xyz, brought to you by HeheStreams — No ads, No Bull**** Live & On-Demand NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL Streaming

In the long run, the most valuable piece the Knicks got from the Thunder might prove to be Chicago's 2018 second-round pick. With the Bulls a league-worst 3-18, that pick would be No. 31 overall if the season ended today.

Despite the pick, the most important aspect of trading Anthony for New York was the ability to turn over the reins of the offense to Porzingis, who has pushed his usage rate from 24.3 percent of the Knicks' plays to 34.2 percent -- second-highest in the league behind James Harden. Like Oladipo, Porzingis has managed to simultaneously improve his efficiency and his volume, confirming him as one of the league's best scorers.

New verdict: Indiana and New York did well with trades
play
0:18
McDermott throws it down over Jackson
Doug McDermott goes baseline and throws down a one-handed reverse slam over Suns rookie Josh Jackson.

I panned both the trades made with the Thunder this summer, grading the Pacers' return a D-minus and the Knicks' package a C-minus. It has quickly become clear I was wrong about both deals.

In Indiana's case, I felt Oladipo would be no more valuable than his $17 million salary over the next four years and that Sabonis was unlikely to contribute to winning after the poor start to his NBA career. While I don't think Oladipo's improvement could have been expected given his career to date, Sabonis being miscast in Oklahoma City was obvious at the time.

Based on what Oladipo has done so far, this trade has been an A-plus for Indiana. Still, we're still talking about a sample of 51 pull-up 3s, so I'm not ready to declare his development permanent yet. As a result, I'd probably go with something like a B-minus for the Pacers given what we know now. If he maintains it, however, Oladipo's contract will be more valuable than one season of George's services.

I don't know that I misjudged the players the Knicks got for Anthony so much as I underestimated the value of turning the page on the Melo era at MSG. Certainly, what New York got in return was better than simply buying Anthony out -- particularly given how promising the second-round pick from Chicago looked before the season. I would probably give the Knicks a straight B in regrading the trade.

So my new assessment is, far from being fleeced, the Knicks and Pacers did well to get what they did from the Thunder.

newyorknewyork wrote:Oladipo has developed into a star.

I thought Pacers did well at the time, especially getting Oladipo, always been a fan. Was more sure of the Pacers doing well in their trade, than I was about the Knicks deal. Save for not taking on long term baggage, of course.

In some cases he is moving and cutting too much (he can't get open like korver), but I guess that comes from not having penetrating guards.

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Can anyone here with ESPN Insider post the article?

Bonn, I think Crush had posted this URL: http://insider2text.xyz/

Thanks. Watching a lot of OKC games, its safe to say that the Knicks and Pacers picked up some good young players. Watching Melo, Westbrook and PG take turns isolating has not been fun. PG can be an incredible scorer but he lacks the consistency and overall court sense to be a high level player. Of course that can change but he has to work on his overall game. He is a great defender though and can play 48 minutes without a sweat. Melo has looked old and out of place. I really expected him to help them in the low post but they just put him on the 3pt line to spread the floor. Just dont see him as a three point shooter. Hated every one that he took when he was here. He has tried to pass up holding the ball and has given up shots for the good of the team. It has helped get them a couple of wins but, ironically when he does ,PG and Westbrook just take forced shots. Westbrook has one of the lowest BB IQ's I have ever seen in an elite player. Crazy how he has no awareness for game management or shot selection. He is like a DRose on steroids. This group does not compliment each other well at all. They will need a POP type coach to make sense of that rotation. With that said, think if they get it together they can outscore anyone in the league. They have had stretches where all three are lighting it up and they have looked like and even beaten GS. Unfortunately for them, they have had many quarters where they have looked like the Chicago Bulls.

As for Mcbuckets and Kanter. Think Kanter has been a big reason for Knicks early success. Guy brings heart and energy to every play. Think he is limited on defense but with KP at his side that is well hidden. If we can sign him to a long term friendly deal, he has won the trade for us. As for Mcbuckets, good role player. Dont think he is anything that will turn a mediocre team into a champion but he is a piece of a puzzle that all good teams need.
Like his overall BB sense. He knows when to cut, can hit an open shot and can drive to keep defense honest. He has surprised me on defense as he was known as a terrible defender. Think he shows good effort on D.

newyorknewyork wrote:Chicago seems to have done pretty well with the Butler trade as well. Dunn looks markedly better then his rookie yr. Lauri looks like a future all star. And they still have Lavine in the wings preparing to come back.

Unless things change drastically, they're going to get a top 3 pick as well. We do get their second rounder.

SupremeCommander wrote:I think this article is pretty basic. While I think Indy and the Knicks got exactly what they needed, OKC needs some time to mesh. Stars need to learn new roles. And guys like Steven Adams are having huge games because other teams have to blanket the perimeter. It also looks like OKC is starting to round into form

A longtime front-office executive told me before the season that he thought Oklahoma City could be terrific in the playoffs, but his main caveat was how the team—and Westbrook specifically—would perform off the ball. It was vital that Westbrook’s screening, spacing, and cutting developed. Thus far, he’s largely been the same player meandering around the 3-point line any time he doesn’t have the ball. Westbrook doesn’t cut with purpose or make effective reads to get himself open. He often stands and watches from five feet behind the 3-point line, out of the frame of the broadcast.

Think about how Stephen Curry remains active off the ball by racing through screens or roaming into open space. He’s as much of a threat without the ball as he is with it. Westbrook is far from Curry’s level as a shooter, but at present, he offers virtually nothing when he doesn’t have the ball. It’s a shame. He has two dynamic teammates in George and Anthony who can, in turn, create easier opportunities for him.

Westbrook should be a tidal wave attacking closeouts against a rotating defense, yet those opportunities aren’t available. One play that’s been effective has featured George or Anthony slipping a screen for Westbrook and then popping for a 3.

The inverse of this, with Westbrook screening for George or Anthony, could be equally effective, or even more lethal. It wouldn’t be easy for a defense to switch, and if Westbrook pops, he’d have space to shoot or attack a rotating defense. But Westbrook is a reluctant screener. He logged only one screen assist all of last season and has had just four this season. Harden, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving all have over 10. Curry had over 100 last season. Westbrook should take note—the game would be easier for everyone if plays initiated by a teammate were as threatening as plays initiated by him.

Donovan could be at fault for not pushing the boundaries for his point guard. It could also be Donovan’s fault for not effectively integrating his two new All-Stars. But Westbrook hasn’t moved for any coach he’s ever had. It’s unfair to expect Westbrook, or any player, to undergo an extreme makeover, but is it too much to ask for a few tweaks from an already proven player? He often gets compared to the modern Allen Iverson, but unlike Iverson, Westbrook is a gym rat. It’s reasonable to expect even more from him by committing to playing off the ball and improving his passing.

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I think this article is pretty basic. While I think Indy and the Knicks got exactly what they needed, OKC needs some time to mesh. Stars need to learn new roles. And guys like Steven Adams are having huge games because other teams have to blanket the perimeter. It also looks like OKC is starting to round into form

OKC has lost a ton of close games. I still think they're a .600 team. (That's no better than last year though!)

meloshouldgo wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I think this article is pretty basic. While I think Indy and the Knicks got exactly what they needed, OKC needs some time to mesh. Stars need to learn new roles. And guys like Steven Adams are having huge games because other teams have to blanket the perimeter. It also looks like OKC is starting to round into form

OKC has lost a ton of close games. I still think they're a .600 team. (That's no better than last year though!)

It takes work to lose to the Nyets