Panos wrote:If Kanter is getting MRIs it's because he gives 110% on the floor, fights for every rebound, and defends his teammates. If you can't respect that, i don't know what to tell you.

Hey, I love The Turk. I'm just being aware of the problems that will be in store for us. Back trouble? Man, that is thee worst ailment an athlete can have. That NEVER gets fixed. Enes Kantplay will be out quite often.

FireHornacek wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

Did your eye test tell you Kanter is playing better than KP?

My eye test tells me both the Lizard and Kan'tPlay are injury prone string beans who will miss at least one quarter of the season. That's 20 games for you non-math majors. Our two best players will be sitting in street clothes on the bench for a big part of the season. That's what my eye test tells me.

Ban this guy.

FireHornacek wrote:Ah, thanks.

That Play Efficiency Rating stat is very interesting. Thanks for the link. I'm not really a stat guy. Just use your eyes to tell you who is better than who (Derek Jeter and Eli Manning don't have the greatest stats...but I'll take them over anybody (even over Geno Smith!). One's eyes are the best way to judge an athlete. However, that PER stat does seem to provide a far more accurate assessment of a player than PPG. Never saw it before.

Bonn1997 wrote:

FireHornacek wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Kanter is in his 7th year. He has never missed that many games. He's averaged 74.2 games a season.

Kan'tPlay punched a chair last year and broke his hand...during the run for the playoffs! That's not good.
This year we have only played twenty games...and KantPlay's missed three. That's not good.

17 of 20 is 85%, which is pretty normal

No, that's not how you figure probability in cases like this. You are operating under a fixed scenario. Injuries in athletes are not fixed. They vary. And here's the thing, they do not diminish. They increase. As you know, the older one gets, the more one plays, the more the chance of an injury. The way to figure the probability - how many games will Enes miss due to injury - would be the following.

1. Enes missed 3 of the first 20 games
2. Because Enes is aging and playing more, the next 20 games he will miss six due to injury (simply double what he missed in the first 20 games).
3. The next 20 games, Enes will now miss 12 due to injury.
4. And for the final 20 (22) games of the season, you double the 12 from above, Enes will miss 24 games of the final 22.
Conclusion:
Using simple probability mechanics, we see that of the 82 games played this year, Enes Kanter will miss 45 games due to injury.

Bank on it, folks.

Bonn1997 wrote:

FireHornacek wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

FireHornacek wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Kanter is in his 7th year. He has never missed that many games. He's averaged 74.2 games a season.

Kan'tPlay punched a chair last year and broke his hand...during the run for the playoffs! That's not good.
This year we have only played twenty games...and KantPlay's missed three. That's not good.

17 of 20 is 85%, which is pretty normal

No, that's not how you figure probability in cases like this. You are operating under a fixed scenario. Injuries in athletes are not fixed. They vary. And here's the thing, they do not diminish. They increase. As you know, the older one gets, the more one plays, the more the chance of an injury. The way to figure the probability - how many games will Enes miss due to injury - would be the following.

1. Enes missed 3 of the first 20 games
2. Because Enes is aging and playing more, the next 20 games he will miss six due to injury (simply double what he missed in the first 20 games).
3. The next 20 games, Enes will now miss 12 due to injury.
4. And for the final 20 (22) games of the season, you double the 12 from above, Enes will miss 24 games of the final 22.
Conclusion:
Using simple probability mechanics, we see that of the 82 games played this year, Enes Kanter will miss 45 games due to injury.

Bank on it, folks.

So someone who has missed 15 of the first 20 games will miss 30 of the next 20.

Yes, that would be the likely outcome. If a player misses 15 of the first 20 games due to injury, he will miss 30 games of the next 20 games on the schedule.

You've got to understand that probability in this sort of case -- predicting games lost to injury -- is not a static case. In this case of probability we are dealing with a very fluid scenario. Because of the human body, because of aging, because of the nature of games played compounding the injury, injuries actually grow, they do not remain static nor do they diminish. So, yes, if a player misses 15 games of the first 20 due to injury, he will miss 30 games of the next twenty played. Forget the mathematics behind this, just know that injuries fester and get worse. You fail to realize that.