jrodmc wrote:

Chandler wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

franco12 wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:If the defense wasn’t so terrible in the pre-season, I would be more optimistic. Unfortunately though, I am going with 22 wins. I’ll be more than thrilled to eat crow and my own dirty socks if I am wrong no matter how wrong.

will you be happy if we win 12 games?

I mean, I doubt we'll be that bad. But with this group, you never know.

As bizarre as it sounds, and as counter intuitive it may appear on the surface, I still believe Ryan Anderson and picks would have been a better overall package in deal compared to Kanter/McDermott. Anderson is a zero on defense granted. And he can only play PF, Stretch 4 and that's it. But he's elite at what he does well. He spaces the floor and with a little daylight, can bomb other teams into submission. Yes, his contract is a year longer than Kanters ( I really don't see Kanter opting out....) but he creates less of a conflict with Zinger and Hernangomez on the roster.

I agree. I think he was better fit

I get the sentiment but IMO too much overlap with KP, and we'd be stuck with Anderson (is my fear)

I'm more intrigued by Kanter/McDermott. Kanter has no D, but you also can't guard him with a smurf. It depends how he's used. If he's abused on D, we need to make sure to punish the opponent on the other end posting him up

I also think Kanter in particular or one of the other bigs will be more moveable if needed

And conversely, WhoTF was going to trade with us for Ryan Anderson and that great contract? He would be almost as unmovable as Noah.

Almost????!!?!!.... would be....and is...

When teams are asking for 2 firsts.....u are unmovable my friend....Phil would have did the Caldron deal again with this...then try to pan off how he complements KP....and crap

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

I am curious because I see the Knicks as an improved team from the year before, but I certainly could be wrong.

Knicks top 10 leaders in total minutes played last year:
Melo
Lee
KP
Rose
Holiday
Jennings
Willy
KOQ
Kuz
Noah

So the big question is where does Melo’s production come from? Simple answer is Tim Hardaway.
Last year Melo had a TS% of .535 vs. .568 from Hardaway. Timmy was more efficient. Melo had a WS/48 of .089. Timmy’s was .107
We know last year from the tracking stats that Melo’s defense was among the league’s worst. We also know from advanced stats (NBA.com) that only one player took more contested shots than Melo. Hofstra and jrod will make Lin jokes and files this under useless Melo hate, but the reality is, on paper when looking at last year the Knicks scoring will take an uptick by replacing Melo with Timmy.

Next up the guards:
Rose/Holiday/Jennings are replaced by Sessions/Dotson/Frank. Despite his poor advanced stats I think losing Rose’s production hurts early, but yields better results later. Rose was reasonably durable and his 18ppg on 47% shooting will be missed. How much? We will see. Our defense at PG was terrible last year. It remains to be seen if Baker/Frank play a real role in improving that. Seeing is believing.

Bigs:
Basically the same group as last year, + Kanter and with Willy/KP having another year under their best. There is a glut, make no mistake. However Kanter’s scoring can’t be ignored. He will have some role and despite his defensive woes his scoring and rebounding make him an easy + player.

Coaching: Seeing is believing here as well. There is depth to this team, even though much of it may be mediocre. There should still be some options for this coach. Key is developing young players first, but there is NBA talent on this roster.

My take: 36 wins. (+5 win improvement).

Obviously many things can happen that could make the Knicks worse or better than 36 wins. However the defense should be better. The best player on the roster (Melo) did not have a good year and was near career lows in most categories. Will Hardaway be as good a player as Melo? Probably not. Can he play as well as Melo did last year? I am pretty sure he can yes. Will swapping Melo/Rose/Jennings/Holiday with THjr/Frank/Dotson/Beas translate to more wins? We will see. I think they improve… not by much, but a tick.

Timmy/Melo
Win shares are going to be higher on teams with winning records by definition. The stat attempts to estimate how much a player within a given team contributes tho those wins. Once you change the situation/team the player is in, the WS statistic makes no claim that it's transferable or reproducible in the new situation. The TS% was only marginally better as well.
Where Timmy can make a real difference is in the amount of clock Melo used to waste per possession and by playing in the flow of the offense. He can also potentially contribute on the defensive side more than Melo did - real easy to do, but not sure what we are going to see on that.

Guards
Rose better as second or third scoring option than any guard on either roster
Every guard on both rosters better than Rose as distributors
It's a hard comparison to make, but definitely a plus on the team ball side

Bigs
Net improvement with Kanter

Coaching
Meh

nychamp wrote:

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

In a word, defense. I believe the Knick defense will be atrocious this year. As I see it many of their key players are either defensive zeroes (Kanter, Hardaway-judging from preseason, McDermott, Kuz) or severely flawed. Only solid defenders appear to be Frank, Baker, LT. KP has an impact, but also is flawed as a man defender.

I also haven't seen any indication that the coaching staff has a successful plan or is capable of getting the team to play competent team defense. They don't prevent easy layups. They don't guard the 3-pt line. Looking at the preseason and the body of work from last year. I hope to be proven wrong.

I'm not convinced KP will take the steps he needs to this year to be the number one on a non-awful NBA team. While I love what he can do, I worry that he can be exploited and attacked more effectively without Melo on the team. I also worry about his apparent tendency to try to play a SF's game in his 7'3" body. Not sure that it is the right approach. He is at a strength disadvantage, even against smaller guys, and like it or not (he doesn't seem to), he needs to play a certain % of the game close to the hoop to maximize his advantage. I could see him putting up same-ish numbers as last year.

Finally, I worry about KP and injuries. I could easily see him missing significant time. Again, I hope to be completely wrong.

Fish - I would also add they lost every one of their preseason games, and they looked awful doing it.

New faces, change in focus - I think it's a step back to take 3 steps forward.

BigDaddyG wrote:

nychamp wrote:

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

In a word, defense. I believe the Knick defense will be atrocious this year. As I see it many of their key players are either defensive zeroes (Kanter, Hardaway-judging from preseason, McDermott, Kuz) or severely flawed. Only solid defenders appear to be Frank, Baker, LT. KP has an impact, but also is flawed as a man defender.

I also haven't seen any indication that the coaching staff has a successful plan or is capable of getting the team to play competent team defense. They don't prevent easy layups. They don't guard the 3-pt line. Looking at the preseason and the body of work from last year. I hope to be proven wrong.

I'm not convinced KP will take the steps he needs to this year to be the number one on a non-awful NBA team. While I love what he can do, I worry that he can be exploited and attacked more effectively without Melo on the team. I also worry about his apparent tendency to try to play a SF's game in his 7'3" body. Not sure that it is the right approach. He is at a strength disadvantage, even against smaller guys, and like it or not (he doesn't seem to), he needs to play a certain % of the game close to the hoop to maximize his advantage. I could see him putting up same-ish numbers as last year.

Finally, I worry about KP and injuries. I could easily see him missing significant time. Again, I hope to be completely wrong.

+1
Also, I'm not sure if the locker room will lock in and dig in for Jeff when things get rough. He's kinda a lame duck himself. I'm not saying it's fair, but Perry didn't bring him in. I think there's something to those Blatt conspiracy theories.

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

nychamp wrote:

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

In a word, defense. I believe the Knick defense will be atrocious this year. As I see it many of their key players are either defensive zeroes (Kanter, Hardaway-judging from preseason, McDermott, Kuz) or severely flawed. Only solid defenders appear to be Frank, Baker, LT. KP has an impact, but also is flawed as a man defender.

I also haven't seen any indication that the coaching staff has a successful plan or is capable of getting the team to play competent team defense. They don't prevent easy layups. They don't guard the 3-pt line. Looking at the preseason and the body of work from last year. I hope to be proven wrong.

I'm not convinced KP will take the steps he needs to this year to be the number one on a non-awful NBA team. While I love what he can do, I worry that he can be exploited and attacked more effectively without Melo on the team. I also worry about his apparent tendency to try to play a SF's game in his 7'3" body. Not sure that it is the right approach. He is at a strength disadvantage, even against smaller guys, and like it or not (he doesn't seem to), he needs to play a certain % of the game close to the hoop to maximize his advantage. I could see him putting up same-ish numbers as last year.

Finally, I worry about KP and injuries. I could easily see him missing significant time. Again, I hope to be completely wrong.

+1
Also, I'm not sure if the locker room will lock in and dig in for Jeff when things get rough. He's kinda a lame duck himself. I'm not saying it's fair, but Perry didn't bring him in. I think there's something to those Blatt conspiracy theories.

right... but again, all those things existed last year no? I mean the lockerroom was a disaster, especially with the star player now saying he played the whole season like he had no support and was stabbed in the back. So why is this year going to be worse than last?

A team's record is not a perfect indicator of how good it is. There's good breaks and bad breaks in each season - in terms of health, officiating, and luck during games. Going from 31 to 34 wins doesn't mean the team is 10% better than the past year or to 28 wins doesn't mean it's worse. If anyone is predicting between 27 and 35 wins, they're basically saying we're about the same as last year.

Predicting 32 wins may give you a range of 27-37
Predicting 27 will then give you a range of 22-32 wins
Not sure we can say those are essentially the same thing - there is still a clear 5 win difference, so I think fishy's question was a good one.

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

nychamp wrote:

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

In a word, defense. I believe the Knick defense will be atrocious this year. As I see it many of their key players are either defensive zeroes (Kanter, Hardaway-judging from preseason, McDermott, Kuz) or severely flawed. Only solid defenders appear to be Frank, Baker, LT. KP has an impact, but also is flawed as a man defender.

I also haven't seen any indication that the coaching staff has a successful plan or is capable of getting the team to play competent team defense. They don't prevent easy layups. They don't guard the 3-pt line. Looking at the preseason and the body of work from last year. I hope to be proven wrong.

I'm not convinced KP will take the steps he needs to this year to be the number one on a non-awful NBA team. While I love what he can do, I worry that he can be exploited and attacked more effectively without Melo on the team. I also worry about his apparent tendency to try to play a SF's game in his 7'3" body. Not sure that it is the right approach. He is at a strength disadvantage, even against smaller guys, and like it or not (he doesn't seem to), he needs to play a certain % of the game close to the hoop to maximize his advantage. I could see him putting up same-ish numbers as last year.

Finally, I worry about KP and injuries. I could easily see him missing significant time. Again, I hope to be completely wrong.

+1
Also, I'm not sure if the locker room will lock in and dig in for Jeff when things get rough. He's kinda a lame duck himself. I'm not saying it's fair, but Perry didn't bring him in. I think there's something to those Blatt conspiracy theories.

right... but again, all those things existed last year no? I mean the lockerroom was a disaster, especially with the star player now saying he played the whole season like he had no support and was stabbed in the back. So why is this year going to be worse than last?

A team's record is not a perfect indicator of how good it is. There's good breaks and bad breaks in each season - in terms of health, officiating, and luck during games. Going from 31 to 34 wins doesn't mean the team is 10% better than the past year or to 28 wins doesn't mean it's worse. If anyone is predicting between 27 and 35 wins, they're basically saying we're about the same as last year.

so if I owe you $20 and I pay you back $17 when you ask why I gave you less I will just tell you "its basically about the same as you gave me."

No, less is less and more is more. I am curious why people are saying less. Why did you need to answer for the 14 guys I mentioned by name? I left out anyone who was a in a couple wins. I was looking for people who said at 5 or so fewer. 5 games is an uptick or downtick either way. Its sports. We have wins, losses and opinions on message boards.

I am curios why people think fewer wins from last year.

So last year they won 31 games.

I am saying this year, they will win 28. Give or take. Things could go well, and they could do better. Porzingis could get hurt, and the season fall aparts.

Why worse than last year? I think the stated goal is to develop players, and lean on our young guys to win games. Last year, we have Melo. He was worth at least 3 wins.

Every year, we expect this team to win games. Perform. Finally, folks have caught on.

meloshouldgo wrote:Sans Lin, Brook already frontrunners for Doncic

LOL you mean Cavs?

fishmike wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

nychamp wrote:

fishmike wrote:TPercy, nychamp, CrushAlot, BigDaddyG, Panos, Caseloads, TripleThreat, jskinny35, mlby1215, Paris907, Allanfan20, Cartman718, Uptown, nykshaknbake.. you guys all picked the Knicks to win considerably fewer wins than they did the year before. What’s your thought process?

In a word, defense. I believe the Knick defense will be atrocious this year. As I see it many of their key players are either defensive zeroes (Kanter, Hardaway-judging from preseason, McDermott, Kuz) or severely flawed. Only solid defenders appear to be Frank, Baker, LT. KP has an impact, but also is flawed as a man defender.

I also haven't seen any indication that the coaching staff has a successful plan or is capable of getting the team to play competent team defense. They don't prevent easy layups. They don't guard the 3-pt line. Looking at the preseason and the body of work from last year. I hope to be proven wrong.

I'm not convinced KP will take the steps he needs to this year to be the number one on a non-awful NBA team. While I love what he can do, I worry that he can be exploited and attacked more effectively without Melo on the team. I also worry about his apparent tendency to try to play a SF's game in his 7'3" body. Not sure that it is the right approach. He is at a strength disadvantage, even against smaller guys, and like it or not (he doesn't seem to), he needs to play a certain % of the game close to the hoop to maximize his advantage. I could see him putting up same-ish numbers as last year.

Finally, I worry about KP and injuries. I could easily see him missing significant time. Again, I hope to be completely wrong.

+1
Also, I'm not sure if the locker room will lock in and dig in for Jeff when things get rough. He's kinda a lame duck himself. I'm not saying it's fair, but Perry didn't bring him in. I think there's something to those Blatt conspiracy theories.

right... but again, all those things existed last year no? I mean the lockerroom was a disaster, especially with the star player now saying he played the whole season like he had no support and was stabbed in the back. So why is this year going to be worse than last?

A team's record is not a perfect indicator of how good it is. There's good breaks and bad breaks in each season - in terms of health, officiating, and luck during games. Going from 31 to 34 wins doesn't mean the team is 10% better than the past year or to 28 wins doesn't mean it's worse. If anyone is predicting between 27 and 35 wins, they're basically saying we're about the same as last year.

so if I owe you $20 and I pay you back $17 when you ask why I gave you less I will just tell you "its basically about the same as you gave me."

No, less is less and more is more. I am curious why people are saying less. Why did you need to answer for the 14 guys I mentioned by name? I left out anyone who was a in a couple wins. I was looking for people who said at 5 or so fewer. 5 games is an uptick or downtick either way. Its sports. We have wins, losses and opinions on message boards.

I am curios why people think fewer wins from last year.

Many in the metrics community have said that season-long point differential is actually a better indicator of how well the team is playing (and will play in future games) than W-L record. (It's not a perfect indicator either though.) The point is there's nothing magical or precise about the W-L record.

The same thing is the case in baseball, and the Yankees are actually an interesting illustration right now. There are many who say you should ignore W-L record and look at run differential if you want to know how good a team is. The Yankees had an elite run differential and look as good as any of the teams in the post-season. (They did beat Cleveland who had an even better run differential though. Anything can happen in one series but the point is the Yankees look about as good as these teams that won 10 more games than they did.)