martin wrote:codeunknown wrote:To win the most games this season (instead of upgrading future team asset value), i expect the following lineup to be the best overall by mid season.Start/Finish
Frank
THJ
Beasley
KP
Noah
Problem: Beasley is a substandard defender in several roles but is a needed half-court post-primary offensive threat.
Bench
Sessions
Lee
Lance
Willy
Kanter
The offense here will consist of rebounding misses and throwing it out to 3 point shooters.
Why start Beas over Lee? Lee has been a starter, has he done something to lose spot or has Beas done something or bring something to earn spot?
I don't view it as incumbent vs challenger, with their usual advantages; the team personnel and philosophy have changed too much.
In other words, there is a significant projection aspect to both. The departure of Carmelo and Rose opens the offensive landscape significantly.
While Carmelo would often saddle us with his inefficiency overall, he was relatively efficient in isolation (79th percentile points per possession). Likewise Rose was relatively efficient as a pick and role ball handler (74-75th percentile PPP). Despite the fact that our primary schemes were at times disrupted by these 2, these select efficiencies will be missed both directly and with respect to opponent help defense because the failure rate of primary schemes for all NBA teams is significant.
Last year Beasley was 88 %ile in isolation (84 %ile in 2015-16), 75 %ile on spot-ups and 94 % ile on post-ups, at twice the usage % of Courtney Lee. Lee did not post up once last year and was 53 %ile on spot ups. Lee was actually 89 %ile in isolation last year, on low volume and likely an anomaly from secondary ball swing advantages. Note that Lee was 61% ile the previous year in isolation. In total, this is all to prove something you mal already believe - which is that Beasley is a better multi-dimensional offensive player, especially from a standstill.
Defensively, it gets interesting. Beasley was at 40 %ile in isolation last year, Lee at 80% ile. Positional differences matter, however, and Lee played mostly at the 2 last year. If you place him at the 3 against bigger players who can post him up, you may get eaten alive (6th percentile on post-ups defensively last year). In comparison, Beasley was 100 %ile on post-ups defensively, although I expect this to be a partial outlier for several reasons. Finally, if you re-shuffle the line-up to put THJ at small forward just to play lee, you do THJ a disservice defensively.
To me, starting Lee over Beasley is not viable, if past trends hold.
Sh-t in the popcorn to go with sh-t on the court. Its a theme show like Medieval times.
