ccinflushing wrote:There are a number of complicating factors in any trade with Houston. One is that they are hard capped at $125,266,00 because they used the full MLE to sign PJ Tucker and Zhou Qi. They currently have $108,371,83 in committed salaries for 10 players.The other is the fact that Carmelo has a 15% trade kicker, which because 2018-19 is a player option causes the entire trade kicker amount to be applied to the 2017-18 salary ($8,125,785+$26,24,760 = $34,369,545). If the status quo remains then Houston would need to send out at least $27,415,636 in salaries). If Melo opts in for 2018-19, then his salary for trade purposes is $30,180,324. Houston would then need to send out $24,064,259 in salaries. Carmelo could also choose to waive all or a part of his trade kicker. In the situation where Melo waives his entire trade kicker, Houston would only need to send out $20,915,008 in salaries.
I can see a scenario where Carmelo opts in and waives a portion of his trade kicker to make the trade work - he'll have to as there are only two contracts Houston can trade without meaningfully impacting their team success (Ryan Anderson and Chinanu Onuaku). Houston would also need to guarantee one of its NG contracts to include in the trade (maybe Shawn Long and/or Cameron Oliver)
I think for Portland to be interested in taking on Ryan Anderson, they would want to offload at least one bad contract (Meyers Leonard would be my guess) and some or all of their expiring contracts (Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh would be my guess as they still want to be competitive).
So my guess on how this trade goes down if it goes down:
Melo waives his trade kicker to facilitate the trade
Houston get Carmelo
Portland get Ryan Anderson, Shawn Long (NG), Houston 2020 1st round pick
NYK get Mo Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Cameron Oliver, Portland 2018 1st round pick
In this scenario, all parties get most if not all that they want. The NYK get younger and more athletic, they get a rotation player and a couple of picks(Cameron Oliver and a future first). Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief. Houston gets the best player in the deal (Melo)
Thank you. Very thought out and intriguing