SocraticBallin22 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

SocraticBallin22 wrote:I tested this trade and it works:

Melo to Houston.

Anderson to the Blazers.

Mo Harkless, Ed Davis, Quarterman and Onuaku to Knicks with 1st rounder.

Harkless is owed 10 mill for 2 more years--not a bad contract for a 24 yr old who can start at small forward and had his best season last year to add to our young core 4.

Davis, Quarterman expiring. We would shed close to 20 million in salary after this year with Melo off the books with Mo and a 1st rounder.

Also, we can waive Davis (though I like him as a player) and Quarterman and open up 8 mill this year to sign a vet pg.

Let's do it!

Portland does this why?

Not even mentioning, no, you can' waive Davis.

His contract is guaranteed.

They're a capped out team who couldn't pursue any free agents this summer and they like Anderson as a stretch 4 to add to their dynamic backcourt of Lillard and CJ. They're a playoff team trying to win now.

That's very wishful thinking that a tiny market club already with the highest payroll in the NBA is going to extend their luxury tax pain two more years thinking Ryan Anderson will be a significant factor for them in the west, particularly considering they'll be helping a team that finished above them this season along the way.

smackeddog wrote:Someone on clutchfans said that the talks are now expanding to a fourth team (to take on Meyers), which would make sense- Anderson to blazers, meyers and harmless to us, we then dump meyers for a pick or something.

Who's giving up a pick to take Leonard?

They'd likely expect to get a pick to take Leonard.

smackeddog wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

smackeddog wrote:Someone on clutchfans said that the talks are now expanding to a fourth team (to take on Meyers), which would make sense- Anderson to blazers, meyers and harmless to us, we then dump meyers for a pick or something.

Who's giving up a pick to take Leonard?

They'd likely expect to get a pick to take Leonard.

The idea is to find a team that wants Meyers

The idea is fine, just extremely unlikely.

The other is the fact that Carmelo has a 15% trade kicker, which because 2018-19 is a player option causes the entire trade kicker amount to be applied to the 2017-18 salary ($8,125,785+$26,24,760 = $34,369,545). If the status quo remains then Houston would need to send out at least $27,415,636 in salaries). If Melo opts in for 2018-19, then his salary for trade purposes is $30,180,324. Houston would then need to send out $24,064,259 in salaries. Carmelo could also choose to waive all or a part of his trade kicker. In the situation where Melo waives his entire trade kicker, Houston would only need to send out $20,915,008 in salaries.

I can see a scenario where Carmelo opts in and waives a portion of his trade kicker to make the trade work - he'll have to as there are only two contracts Houston can trade without meaningfully impacting their team success (Ryan Anderson and Chinanu Onuaku). Houston would also need to guarantee one of its NG contracts to include in the trade (maybe Shawn Long and/or Cameron Oliver)

I think for Portland to be interested in taking on Ryan Anderson, they would want to offload at least one bad contract (Meyers Leonard would be my guess) and some or all of their expiring contracts (Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh would be my guess as they still want to be competitive).

So my guess on how this trade goes down if it goes down:

Melo waives his trade kicker to facilitate the trade

Houston get Carmelo
Portland get Ryan Anderson, Shawn Long (NG), Houston 2020 1st round pick
NYK get Mo Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Cameron Oliver, Portland 2018 1st round pick

In this scenario, all parties get most if not all that they want. The NYK get younger and more athletic, they get a rotation player and a couple of picks(Cameron Oliver and a future first). Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief. Houston gets the best player in the deal (Melo)

Knickoftime wrote:

ccinflushing wrote:Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief.

No, they don't.

After that great post you want to comment only on this part?

EnySpree wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

ccinflushing wrote:Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief.

No, they don't.

After that great post you want to comment only on this part?

Yes.

I have no doubts Melo will waive the kicker, but the entire premise is still Portland being really, really hot to add Ryan Anderson, and that's hard to imagine, and a deal would have possibly been reached already if that wasn't a hold-up.

ccinflushing wrote:There are a number of complicating factors in any trade with Houston. One is that they are hard capped at $125,266,00 because they used the full MLE to sign PJ Tucker and Zhou Qi. They currently have $108,371,83 in committed salaries for 10 players.

The other is the fact that Carmelo has a 15% trade kicker, which because 2018-19 is a player option causes the entire trade kicker amount to be applied to the 2017-18 salary ($8,125,785+$26,24,760 = $34,369,545). If the status quo remains then Houston would need to send out at least $27,415,636 in salaries). If Melo opts in for 2018-19, then his salary for trade purposes is $30,180,324. Houston would then need to send out $24,064,259 in salaries. Carmelo could also choose to waive all or a part of his trade kicker. In the situation where Melo waives his entire trade kicker, Houston would only need to send out $20,915,008 in salaries.

I can see a scenario where Carmelo opts in and waives a portion of his trade kicker to make the trade work - he'll have to as there are only two contracts Houston can trade without meaningfully impacting their team success (Ryan Anderson and Chinanu Onuaku). Houston would also need to guarantee one of its NG contracts to include in the trade (maybe Shawn Long and/or Cameron Oliver)

I think for Portland to be interested in taking on Ryan Anderson, they would want to offload at least one bad contract (Meyers Leonard would be my guess) and some or all of their expiring contracts (Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh would be my guess as they still want to be competitive).

So my guess on how this trade goes down if it goes down:

Melo waives his trade kicker to facilitate the trade

Houston get Carmelo
Portland get Ryan Anderson, Shawn Long (NG), Houston 2020 1st round pick
NYK get Mo Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Cameron Oliver, Portland 2018 1st round pick

In this scenario, all parties get most if not all that they want. The NYK get younger and more athletic, they get a rotation player and a couple of picks(Cameron Oliver and a future first). Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief. Houston gets the best player in the deal (Melo)

I forgot to mention that NY gets Noah Vonleh as well, which would save them about $8MM in salaries and a commensurate amount in tax savings.

EnySpree wrote:

ccinflushing wrote:There are a number of complicating factors in any trade with Houston. One is that they are hard capped at $125,266,00 because they used the full MLE to sign PJ Tucker and Zhou Qi. They currently have $108,371,83 in committed salaries for 10 players.

The other is the fact that Carmelo has a 15% trade kicker, which because 2018-19 is a player option causes the entire trade kicker amount to be applied to the 2017-18 salary ($8,125,785+$26,24,760 = $34,369,545). If the status quo remains then Houston would need to send out at least $27,415,636 in salaries). If Melo opts in for 2018-19, then his salary for trade purposes is $30,180,324. Houston would then need to send out $24,064,259 in salaries. Carmelo could also choose to waive all or a part of his trade kicker. In the situation where Melo waives his entire trade kicker, Houston would only need to send out $20,915,008 in salaries.

I can see a scenario where Carmelo opts in and waives a portion of his trade kicker to make the trade work - he'll have to as there are only two contracts Houston can trade without meaningfully impacting their team success (Ryan Anderson and Chinanu Onuaku). Houston would also need to guarantee one of its NG contracts to include in the trade (maybe Shawn Long and/or Cameron Oliver)

I think for Portland to be interested in taking on Ryan Anderson, they would want to offload at least one bad contract (Meyers Leonard would be my guess) and some or all of their expiring contracts (Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh would be my guess as they still want to be competitive).

So my guess on how this trade goes down if it goes down:

Melo waives his trade kicker to facilitate the trade

Houston get Carmelo
Portland get Ryan Anderson, Shawn Long (NG), Houston 2020 1st round pick
NYK get Mo Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier, Cameron Oliver, Portland 2018 1st round pick

In this scenario, all parties get most if not all that they want. The NYK get younger and more athletic, they get a rotation player and a couple of picks(Cameron Oliver and a future first). Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief. Houston gets the best player in the deal (Melo)

Great contribution!

This. Nice work.

EnySpree wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

ccinflushing wrote:Portland gets a PF upgrade and some luxury tax relief.

No, they don't.

After that great post you want to comment only on this part?

I continue to fail to see why Portland is interested in these deals and in addition why would they ever want to throw in a pick on top of taking on Anderson's $20M for 3-yrs.

They trade a starting caliber / young SF, plus 2 other young guys on low-cost deals and a 1st round pick all to get rid of Leonard at $10M per to take on Anderson at $20M per.
Then they get to watch Anderson try to guard who -- K=Durant in the playoffs?

They get to dump $8Mn in expiring contracts for the cost of a pick swap (2020 for 2018). I think they might prefer a 2020 pick anyway, given their cap situation.

In trading Vonleh, they do have to worry about putting in a qualifying offer when they also have to ante up for Nurkic. They also open up playing time for Collins and Swanigan.