Posted by BRIGGS:
That's impossible because there are to many variables. Last year, the Spurs were beating down doors for Jason Kidd to pay him very close to what he is making now. One year later, things have changed dramatically. I don't think there is a contract in the NBA that doesnt have downside risk because injury problems are part of the sport. Basketball players are like any other commodity, what was hot today could be ice cold a month from now. Impossible to quantify. It's good to have balance, something the Knicks haven't had in awhile.
OK, may be my point was drawn too narrowly, but although market conditions can change with respect to any given player, there are some contracts that are almost untradable from the day they are signed (e.g., Shandon, Houston, etc.), unless a team is willing to accept an equally bad contract in return (e.g., Spoon for Moochie). Those are the contracts I would seek to avoid.
Granted, a player can get injured, and his market value would plummet. I am referring to the situation in which the player's abilities remain constant.
That's why I would have been reluctant to give Dampier $54 million for six years, because the risk that the contract couldn't be traded seemed unnecessarily high at the date of contract formation.
