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Link to an attempt at an 'all encompassing' individual defensive rating (ODR)
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CrushAlot
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4/26/2017  6:18 PM
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lPUhpOQ4Ndno7XFhDPfEC98OGwjc9Rin5nkr-DUUgfI/edit#gid=1499194963
Here is the guy's twitter bio,
Cranjis McBasketball
@T1m_NBA
@LakerFilmRoom & @TSJ_Sports Contributor | I Point Giannisd before Point Giannis was a thing | I do analytics for a 🏀 team | NBA | Lakers
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
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nixluva
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4/26/2017  6:23 PM
Not bad! I like the weighting based on Position. There are such different roles on D that you have to fine tune a lot in order to get a more accurate rating. I'll be interested to see how this works out.
CrushAlot
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4/26/2017  6:30 PM
nixluva wrote:Not bad! I like the weighting based on Position. There are such different roles on D that you have to fine tune a lot in order to get a more accurate rating. I'll be interested to see how this works out.
I know. I thought it was worth posting.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
CrushAlot
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4/26/2017  8:23 PM
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
WaltLongmire
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4/26/2017  8:40 PM
CrushAlot wrote:

Suprised about Clarkson...in my mind I always think of him as a decent defender. Hard to believe that Russell
grades out better than him on D.

...and f'n Ingram...wow.

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TPercy
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4/26/2017  11:02 PM
Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.
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martin
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4/26/2017  11:36 PM
Looked at overall and LeBron and Kawhi were too low. Does that pass the smell test?
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TPercy
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4/26/2017  11:39 PM
martin wrote:Looked at overall and LeBron and Kawhi were too low. Does that pass the smell test?

Lebron didn't try on defense during regular season other than the typical higj light reel chase down block. He was just as much at fault for their piss poor defensive rating as everyone else on his roster.haven't seen too much of Spurs to speak on him , but the list seems fairly accurate to me.

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WaltLongmire
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4/27/2017  2:09 AM
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

EnySpree: Can we agree to agree not to mention Phil Jackson and triangle for the rest of our lives?
crzymdups
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4/27/2017  11:28 AM
WaltLongmire wrote:
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

Yeah, I agree.

This is interesting to see... but I really don't know if there is any statistical way to judge a guy's defense. So many of the best defensive plays simply don't show up in a box score in any way.

¿ △ ?
fishmike
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4/27/2017  11:34 AM
crzymdups wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

Yeah, I agree.

This is interesting to see... but I really don't know if there is any statistical way to judge a guy's defense. So many of the best defensive plays simply don't show up in a box score in any way.

KP's problem on defense was position. He wasnt in the right place and often rotated too slow or sagged too much leaving guys open for looks. That being said his overall impact is positive. He's a great rim protector.
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crzymdups
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4/27/2017  11:55 AM    LAST EDITED: 4/27/2017  11:57 AM
fishmike wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

Yeah, I agree.

This is interesting to see... but I really don't know if there is any statistical way to judge a guy's defense. So many of the best defensive plays simply don't show up in a box score in any way.

KP's problem on defense was position. He wasnt in the right place and often rotated too slow or sagged too much leaving guys open for looks. That being said his overall impact is positive. He's a great rim protector.

I agree. I've written many times that I feel he was out of position due to the lineups on the floor. I don't think it makes sense to play him next to Willy OR Melo, honestly.

That's why I covet a mobile long forward to play next to him - a Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, OG Anonuby.

Some teams it'll be fine to play Willy and KP together side by side on D. Some teams will eat them alive, we need to be able to adapt.

If you look at the playoffs, the Celtics and the Raptors turned their series around when they started going small.

But yes, KP has the potential to be an outstanding plus defender. And when this year's team was playing well, KP was doing some amazing things on defense. He just needs to play with the right kind of athletic forward who can fly out to the three point line to contest, or who can stay in front of a guy to stop a drive. Imagine KP playing with a Kawhi? That would be the blue print for a finals team. More than some flashy point guard, I really want that sort of plus potential defensive 3 who can maybe play some small ball four and makes perfect sense next to KP. I'm starting to feel like OG Anonuby may be my top pick after Josh Jackson. I like Jonathan Isaac a lot too... can't tell if he'd be a 3 or a 4 yet though... I love his defensive potential though and his offensive potential.

I just want that flexibility in the Knicks lineup. We didn't have it this year and it showed. You need some defensive (and offensive) flexibility at your 2/3/4 slots. Athletic guys who can legitimately defend 2 or 3 positions.


That said, I still don't think it is possible to accurately show defensive impact through stats. Look at some of these Giannis defensive highlights - fantastic defensive plays, but it leads to his man passing and another guy on the team having to take a rushed shot. Any defensive metric would give the guy DEFENDING the other guy credit for a defensive stop (an 0-1 FG in the boxscore)... it's just never going to be able to accurately reflect what actually happens in a game.

https://theringer.com/2017-nba-playoffs-milwaukee-bucks-toronto-raptors-giannis-antetokounmpo-game-3-60b4fe41f735

This play in particular - look at Giannis's defense that sets the tone for the whole play. He wouldn't get any boxscore credit for that by any metric - https://gfycat.com/OblongImperfectAsianwaterbuffalo

¿ △ ?
fishmike
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4/27/2017  12:03 PM
crzymdups wrote:
fishmike wrote:
crzymdups wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

Yeah, I agree.

This is interesting to see... but I really don't know if there is any statistical way to judge a guy's defense. So many of the best defensive plays simply don't show up in a box score in any way.

KP's problem on defense was position. He wasnt in the right place and often rotated too slow or sagged too much leaving guys open for looks. That being said his overall impact is positive. He's a great rim protector.

I agree. I've written many times that I feel he was out of position due to the lineups on the floor. I don't think it makes sense to play him next to Willy OR Melo, honestly.

That's why I covet a mobile long forward to play next to him - a Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, OG Anonuby.

Some teams it'll be fine to play Willy and KP together side by side on D. Some teams will eat them alive, we need to be able to adapt.

If you look at the playoffs, the Celtics and the Raptors turned their series around when they started going small.

But yes, KP has the potential to be an outstanding plus defender. And when this year's team was playing well, KP was doing some amazing things on defense. He just needs to play with the right kind of athletic forward who can fly out to the three point line to contest, or who can stay in front of a guy to stop a drive. Imagine KP playing with a Kawhi? That would be the blue print for a finals team. More than some flashy point guard, I really want that sort of plus potential defensive 3 who can maybe play some small ball four and makes perfect sense next to KP. I'm starting to feel like OG Anonuby may be my top pick after Josh Jackson. I like Jonathan Isaac a lot too... can't tell if he'd be a 3 or a 4 yet though... I love his defensive potential though and his offensive potential.

I just want that flexibility in the Knicks lineup. We didn't have it this year and it showed. You need some defensive (and offensive) flexibility at your 2/3/4 slots. Athletic guys who can legitimately defend 2 or 3 positions.


That said, I still don't think it is possible to accurately show defensive impact through stats. Look at some of these Giannis defensive highlights - fantastic defensive plays, but it leads to his man passing and another guy on the team having to take a rushed shot. Any defensive metric would give the guy DEFENDING the other guy credit for a defensive stop (an 0-1 FG in the boxscore)... it's just never going to be able to accurately reflect what actually happens in a game.

https://theringer.com/2017-nba-playoffs-milwaukee-bucks-toronto-raptors-giannis-antetokounmpo-game-3-60b4fe41f735

This play in particular - look at Giannis's defense that sets the tone for the whole play. He wouldn't get any boxscore credit for that by any metric - https://gfycat.com/OblongImperfectAsianwaterbuffalo

Hey some of that holds true for scoring as well.. but over all I totally agree. Its also why I am not that high on analytics as gospel. They arent and its still a team game. Just because one player elevates a set of teammates doesnt he will elevate another. Many thing change. The eye test is still the biggest because its the only metric that accurately gauges effort.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
martin
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4/27/2017  12:10 PM
the one thing I still would love to see with any type of stats is some sort of factor that considers starters versus bench guys.

Nikola Vucevic is mostly a bench guy and his rep is as a very poor defender, and yet he is only 3-4 slots behind LeBron and Kawhi on the overall rating, which is ridiculous.

It's obvious that he may be benefiting from playing against mostly bench guys.

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GustavBahler
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4/27/2017  12:48 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:

Suprised about Clarkson...in my mind I always think of him as a decent defender. Hard to believe that Russell
grades out better than him on D.

...and f'n Ingram...wow.

Would trade Melo and the 7 pick for Russell, even with those numbers.

Bonn1997
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4/27/2017  1:14 PM
martin wrote:the one thing I still would love to see with any type of stats is some sort of factor that considers starters versus bench guys.

Nikola Vucevic is mostly a bench guy and his rep is as a very poor defender, and yet he is only 3-4 slots behind LeBron and Kawhi on the overall rating, which is ridiculous.

It's obvious that he may be benefiting from playing against mostly bench guys.


The NBA player tracking defensive stats give you the percentage you held your man to, your man's overall shooting percentage, and the difference. It's listed as Player Defense Dashboard on nba.com.
http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-overall/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
This at least partly gets at what you're looking for, but it's only looking at man-to-man defense. Kawhi held his man to 45.0% shooting, while the players he guarded shot 45.9% the rest of the season. So that's a little above average but not spectacular. The prior year he was way better (39.2 vs. 44.8), which is outstanding. I'm guessing you need many years of data to get a valid estimate for a player here.
bernard
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4/27/2017  7:04 PM
To the extent this is judging defense based on your opponent's shooting %, it is, Imo, a crappy stat that could have a negative impact on the way the game is played. Already, you see a lot of guys who are reluctant to leave their man to help because they don't trust their teammates to help the helper. Now, if their earning power is influenced by what % the guy they're covering shoots, this will only get worse.
To me, the ideal way to judge defense is the per possession scoring of opposing 5 when you're on the court with the other 4 you're playing with vs. with replacements. Not easy to calculate and requires a ton of data, but it's what counts.
meloshouldgo
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4/27/2017  9:00 PM
Acc to the original article Melo is a better defender than Winslow. Not buying that
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CrushAlot
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4/27/2017  9:02 PM
meloshouldgo wrote:Acc to the original article Melo is a better defender than Winslow. Not buying that

The ratings are only for this year. Winslow barely paid, 10-15 games?
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
Knixkik
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4/27/2017  9:58 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
TPercy wrote:Porzingis ranks 11th among all forwards. Nice to see.

Interesting, and folks around here were torching him.

I thought he was better last year, to be honest.

People roasting him just aren't very smart. He's a top rim protector in the league. His defensive struggles were completely attributed to playing out of position.

Link to an attempt at an 'all encompassing' individual defensive rating (ODR)

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