TripleThreat wrote:

Chandler wrote:Brooklyn/celts -- some chance for Jackson (but after Jaylen Brown [and some stash picks] would seem strange unless Jackson is to be used as a pf?); if they go fultz or ball what will they do with all the pgs they currently have
phoenix -- they drafted front court last year (twice) -- seems like a guard to me
lakers -- pg(and punt D'Angelo to 2 spot)? front court (isn't Ingram supposed to be their SF), do they give up on randle?
philly -- need guards though they're so dysfunctional
Orlando -- they probably feel at least content with Even F and Gordon judging by their contracts. Looks like a guard to me, and the near end of the Elfrid era. If evan is (or becomes) a sg, then perhaps a sf
knicks -- SF or sg
minny -- if KAT is a forward I can't see them picking high for front court. Back court seems more apparent

Tier 1 of this years NBA draft will likely be a two player tier. Fultz and Ball. Whomever picks first will take Fultz odds on. If they don't, and take Ball, the 2nd team will default to whomever is NOT picked by the first team. That's generally how Tier 1 of the NBA draft breaks down. It's always been this way and will always be this way. Occasionally you get a glitch like Anthony Bennett or Joe Smith but those are usually in unique circumstances.

Teams at the top of the lottery generally go best player available and figure the rest out later. Team who are in the contention segment of all NBA teams will start to go for specific need. "Positional Value" only operates as a tiebreaker. (I.E. if the Lakers like a wing and a PF about the same, they will take the wing)

Philly was criticized for taking big man after big man with high picks, but those were the best values on the board. That is, and will always be, the right decision, even in hindsight, even if the players don't end up working out. Your pick still have to reflect the general market consensus to approximate actual value ( i.e. the Raiders took Derek Carr with their 2nd round pick, after taking Amari Cooper in the first round, Carr has proven he carries the value of a top shelf 1st round pick QB prospect, but the Raiders are still beholden to consider that taking Carr would have negated their ability to take Cooper in the 1st round. Carr still could have been a justified pick in this scenario, but it would not represent "best value" overall for the Raiders in general)

This is why Phil Jackson SHOULD receive so much criticism for running the Knicks, at the stage the Knicks are in, and given there are literally no market inefficiencies in the NBA marketplace, the path to decision making in personnel almost literally writes itself. Something Daryl Morey said years ago stuck with me, that responsible decision making in the NBA is often about refusing to give into the temptation to be contrarian, simply for the sake of ego/wanting to prove people you are smarter than they are by trying to do it all in a way that opposes actual market conditions and forces at work.

Good teams are good teams precisely for the reason that they don't get in their own way. Bad teams who want to be good teams have to learn to STOP getting in their own way.

Great post. Agree completely. Isiah had the same contrarian streak. He literally bragged about being the only one who could see how Marbury and Francis would work together at the Francis trade press conference... And he was right.

TripleThreat wrote:

Chandler wrote:Brooklyn/celts -- some chance for Jackson (but after Jaylen Brown [and some stash picks] would seem strange unless Jackson is to be used as a pf?); if they go fultz or ball what will they do with all the pgs they currently have
phoenix -- they drafted front court last year (twice) -- seems like a guard to me
lakers -- pg(and punt D'Angelo to 2 spot)? front court (isn't Ingram supposed to be their SF), do they give up on randle?
philly -- need guards though they're so dysfunctional
Orlando -- they probably feel at least content with Even F and Gordon judging by their contracts. Looks like a guard to me, and the near end of the Elfrid era. If evan is (or becomes) a sg, then perhaps a sf
knicks -- SF or sg
minny -- if KAT is a forward I can't see them picking high for front court. Back court seems more apparent

Tier 1 of this years NBA draft will likely be a two player tier. Fultz and Ball. Whomever picks first will take Fultz odds on. If they don't, and take Ball, the 2nd team will default to whomever is NOT picked by the first team. That's generally how Tier 1 of the NBA draft breaks down. It's always been this way and will always be this way. Occasionally you get a glitch like Anthony Bennett or Joe Smith but those are usually in unique circumstances.

Teams at the top of the lottery generally go best player available and figure the rest out later. Team who are in the contention segment of all NBA teams will start to go for specific need. "Positional Value" only operates as a tiebreaker. (I.E. if the Lakers like a wing and a PF about the same, they will take the wing)

Philly was criticized for taking big man after big man with high picks, but those were the best values on the board. That is, and will always be, the right decision, even in hindsight, even if the players don't end up working out. Your pick still have to reflect the general market consensus to approximate actual value ( i.e. the Raiders took Derek Carr with their 2nd round pick, after taking Amari Cooper in the first round, Carr has proven he carries the value of a top shelf 1st round pick QB prospect, but the Raiders are still beholden to consider that taking Carr would have negated their ability to take Cooper in the 1st round. Carr still could have been a justified pick in this scenario, but it would not represent "best value" overall for the Raiders in general)

This is why Phil Jackson SHOULD receive so much criticism for running the Knicks, at the stage the Knicks are in, and given there are literally no market inefficiencies in the NBA marketplace, the path to decision making in personnel almost literally writes itself. Something Daryl Morey said years ago stuck with me, that responsible decision making in the NBA is often about refusing to give into the temptation to be contrarian, simply for the sake of ego/wanting to prove people you are smarter than they are by trying to do it all in a way that opposes actual market conditions and forces at work.

Good teams are good teams precisely for the reason that they don't get in their own way. Bad teams who want to be good teams have to learn to STOP getting in their own way.

Couple of points:

1) you make it sound like adam silver sent around a memo saying who is in tier 1 etc. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If Celts think Jackson is the guy they pick him.
2) my suspicion is that as teams make that draft boards they are certainly thinking BPA but that they're also saying things like these 3 guys are kind of tied each with their pros and cons and then they're going by positional need. This isn't the NFL where you need so many players BPA period end of story is the logc

Anyway we'll see how it plays out but I wont be shocked if the celts go front court, phoenix, minny, philly and orlando goes back

if so i'm expecting choice picks at sg and sf which works out fine IMO

crzymdups wrote:

dacash wrote:why is justin jackson rated so low?
i understand the other players are super but isnt he a damn good player too?

He's a junior I think it is the main reason. So people feel he can't improve as much since he's already close to being physically matured

I agree he's very solid on the floor. I'm sort of hesitant to say it, but he seems like a Phil kind of player.

looking at him that's what im thinking. not much like pippen as the other jackson is but nice overall, so these days it is a sin to be old lol

crzymdups wrote:

smackeddog wrote:After Phil's comments at the press conference, I think He will draft Isaac if he's still available- will take 3-4 years to develop, is skilled, is unselfish, would fit in the triangle, etc

I would be pretty happy with Isaac. And I agree he'd make sense.

I think the biggest benefit would be on the defensive end. Isaac and KP would make a helluva front line.

and the skinniest!

crzymdups wrote:

dacash wrote:why is justin jackson rated so low?
i understand the other players are super but isnt he a damn good player too?

He's a junior I think it is the main reason. So people feel he can't improve as much since he's already close to being physically matured

I agree he's very solid on the floor. I'm sort of hesitant to say it, but he seems like a Phil kind of player.

He would be a major reach at where we now are.

WaltLongmire wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

dacash wrote:why is justin jackson rated so low?
i understand the other players are super but isnt he a damn good player too?

He's a junior I think it is the main reason. So people feel he can't improve as much since he's already close to being physically matured

I agree he's very solid on the floor. I'm sort of hesitant to say it, but he seems like a Phil kind of player.

Tend to agree with you on this...but he is not top 7 worthy, is he?

He would be a major reach at where we now are.

based on his year of play and the other players in the draft i say top 12 to 15 but ive seen him on some mocks going in the 20's just wondered why a nice player who has shown improvement and led his team far would be so lightly thought of
he and the french pg would make two nice hauls IMO

wargames wrote:

WaltLongmire wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

smackeddog wrote:After Phil's comments at the press conference, I think He will draft Isaac if he's still available- will take 3-4 years to develop, is skilled, is unselfish, would fit in the triangle, etc

I would be pretty happy with Isaac. And I agree he'd make sense.

I think the biggest benefit would be on the defensive end. Isaac and KP would make a helluva front line.

I'm still going with Ntilikina, though I would love Isaac.

Frank has the ability to play both guard positions. I've watched games where he was the off guard, and he has a good stroke and knows where to be on the floor.

We will see, but I think Fox will be gone when we pick, so Isaac and the French player are the guys I am really looking at.

I think it's Frank too,. Isaac looks like he'll develop into a PF and we need defense on the perimeter more than anything else.

Have said this a number of times...if we can stay in that 6/7 slot- preferably 6, of course, we'll come out of this draft with someone good.

Hate having to depend on a coin and a bunch of ping pong balls, though.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/rob_sheridan/status/853028207817146368

Clearly, this otter has friends in the Portland franchise...

WaltLongmire wrote:Surprised Briggs has not posted this and done a write up on this "above the rim" future star.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/rob_sheridan/status/853028207817146368

Clearly, this otter has friends in the Portland franchise...

Explosive, good athleticism, doesn't hold on to the rim- definitely consider using a second rounder on him