smackeddog wrote:Apart from the two Nets games, the rest of our schedule is against teams with better records than us, apart from one game vs the Blazers (who are tied with us, so we need to lose that one) and one vs the 76ers (which is the last game so we'll know by then whether we have to lose that one too). We really lost control of our destiny by winning the two magic games. As for the teams tied or ahead of us & the number of times they play other teams ahead of us):
Kings (7 games)
still to play: Magic, Suns x 2, Pelicans, Twolves, Mavs, Lakers
Blazers (10 games)
Sixers, Pelicans x2, Knicks, Twolves x3, Lakers, Suns x2,
Pelicans (6 games) (No incentive to tank)
Blazers x 2, Twolves, Mavs, Kings, lakers,
Sixers (7 games)
Blazers, lakers, Mavs, Magic, nets x2, Knicks
Magic (5 games)
Kings, Suns, Sixers, Nets x 2
Twolves (8 games) (unlikely to tank due to Thibs)
Blazers x3, Pelicans, Lakers x3, Kings
Mavs (9 games)
Lakers, nets, Suns x2, Sixers, nets, Pelicans, Nets, kings
Knicks (4 games)
Nets x2, Blazers, Sixers
If we lose nearly all our games, then Mavs and Blazers schedules would indicate they could finish behind us in the tanks standings.
After winning the two games vs them, and taking into account their remaining schedule there is no way we overtake the magic.
Kings are awful, so I'm not optimistic about them winning many games, even though they play 7 vs teams ahead of us in the tank standing.
Pelicans have a tough-ish schedule, don't look good and only play 5 games vs teams with a worse record than them (but they have no incentive to tank)
Sixers we have a shot of tying with, but it will be very difficult- likely they lose vs Blazers and mavs. games vs Lakers and Magic could go either way. Key games will be the 2 nets games and the one vs us.
Nets, Lakers and Suns are set in stone as the top three, with Magic likely 4th
In addition, I think Kings and Pelicans will finish above us in the tank standings
So likely we're looking at 8th or 9th spot (depending on what the twolves do), The best we could do would be 5th (which is where I would like to finish as that spot has a good shot at moving up in the lottery), but it's very unlikely.
1.Nets
2.Lakers
3.Suns
4.Magic
5.Sixers/Kings/Pelicans
6.Sixers/Kings/Pelicans
7.Sixers/Kings/Pelicans
8.Knicks/Twolves
9.Knicks/Twolves
Really nice analysis.
To be fair to the Knicks, the Magic are unbelievably awful and our bench is very solid. We could field our entire third string and still kill them.