Welcome to our ninth annual Summer Forecast!

NBA Summer Forecast
Our ESPN Forecast panel makes early predictions for every team and picks 2016-17 award winners, NBA champ and more.

In the next couple of weeks, we'll share our early projections for every team, and predict the rookie of the year, MVP, best newcomers, NBA champion and much, much more.

Today, we kick things off with a look at the 2016-17 Eastern Conference standings. For our results, we surveyed our ESPN Forecast panel on each topic.

Let's go!

Projected East standings

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Proj. record: 57-25
Last season: 57-25

The Cavaliers cruised to 57 wins last season and will face an even lighter challenge in the East this season, according to our forecast. While free agent LeBron
James is expected to return, J.R. Smith could still sign elsewhere this summer. Smith led the Cavaliers with 204 3-pointers last season, 46 more than anyone else on the roster.

T-2. Boston Celtics
Proj. record: 51-31
Last season: 48-34

Our panel sees the Celtics improving their record for the third straight season and breaking the 50-win barrier. Does it shortchange Boston to suggest Al Horford
and No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown are worth only three wins? Perhaps. But though accomplished, Horford has been a part of only two 50-win teams in his nine-year NBA career.

T-2. Toronto Raptors
Proj. record: 51-31
Last season: 56-26

The Raptors' frontcourt lost depth this offseason, as both Bismack Biyombo (82 games played last season) and Luis Scola (76 games) signed elsewhere, to be
replaced by Jared Sullinger and rookie Jakob Poeltl. If the Raptors do win their projected 51 games next season, it would still be the second-most wins in a season in franchise history.

T-4. Detroit Pistons
Proj. record: 45-37
Last season: 44-38

The Pistons are bringing back virtually the same roster they fielded last postseason, which would explain an increase of only one win by our panel. Last season,
the Pistons didn't have many peaks or valleys: They never finished a month more than three games above or below .500.

T-4. Indiana Pacers
Proj. record: 45-37
Last season: 45-37

Upon first glance, the 3-team trade that brought in Jeff Teague and shipped out George Hill might appear to be a win for the Pacers. Teague is two years younger
and is coming off a 2015-16 season in which he averaged more points and assists per game than Hill. But ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) paints a different picture.
In 2015-16, Hill ranked 17th among point guards while Teague ranked 29th. Hill had ranked ahead of Teague in RPM each of the past three seasons.

6. Atlanta Hawks
Proj. record: 44-38
Last season: 48-34

On the surface, Dwight Howard brings more rebounds, blocked shots and a better ability to finish at the hoop. However, according to RPM, which estimates on-court
team performance, former Hawk Horford ranked 27th with a 2.97 rating last season, while Howard had a -0.04 rating. Atlanta still projects as a playoff team, but our forecast thinks it'll take a hit with Dwight.

7. Charlotte Hornets
Proj. record: 43-39
Last season: 48-34

Kemba Walker took a step forward last season, averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game. His potential has the Hornets still above .500 according to our
projections, but the losses of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will make it hard for the Hornets to get back to such heights.

8. Washington Wizards
Proj. record: 41-41
Last season: 41-41

Having spent seven seasons with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, new Wizards coach Scott Brooks has experience winning with a pair of young stars. And while
John Wall is a proven All-Star, there are still questions about Bradley Beal, who inked a max contract this summer. For Brooks to get the most out of them, Beal
needs to be healthy. In four seasons, the now 23-year-old shooting guard has played in 65 or more games just once (179 players have appeared in more games than
Beal in the past four seasons).

T-9. New York Knicks
Proj. record: 40-42
Last season: 32-50

The Knicks were the most improved team last season in terms of win-loss record, and now they've added former MVP Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah to the fold. If
healthy, our projections could short the Knicks. However, our panel knows that Rose has missed 244 games the past five seasons and Noah has missed 68 games the
past two seasons.

T-9. Chicago Bulls
Proj. record: 40-42
Last season: 42-40

The Bulls made some of the biggest splashes of the offseason, trading Rose while bringing in assist machine Rajon Rondo and three-time NBA champion Dwyane Wade.
But is this Bulls team built for the modern NBA? The Bulls' starting perimeter -- Rondo, Wade and Jimmy Butler -- combined to make 133 3-pointers last season on
31.7 percent shooting.

11. Milwaukee Bucks
Proj. record: 39-43
Last season: 33-49

The Bucks' size continues to intrigue and leads our panel to believe the team can improve despite Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic being the big offseason
additions. But a starting lineup of five players all 6-foot-6 or taller, and the potential of more Giannis Antetokounmpo at the point, should get the Bucks closer
to .500.

12. Miami Heat
Proj. record: 36-46
Last season: 48-34

The franchise leader in scoring and the guy who helped bring three titles to Miami is gone, as are Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. But our panel isn't totally crushing
the Heat, because a youth movement built on Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson could keep Miami in the hunt.

13. Orlando Magic
Proj. record: 35-47
Last season: 35-47

Are the Magic any better or worse off for trading Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka? Both play great defense but struggle to get involved offensively. You could say
the same for other Magic additions in Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green.

T-14. Philadelphia 76ers
Proj. record: 20-62
Last season: 10-72

Our projections have the 76ers doubling their win total from last season thanks in part to No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons. While it's a projection of "only" 20
wins, for Philadelphia that would be the franchise's most since 2012-13 when the Sixers won 34 games.

T-14. Brooklyn Nets
Proj. record: 20-62
Last season: 21-61

Despite mainstay Brook Lopez and Linsanity hitting Brooklyn, the Nets are projected to drop a win, according to our panel. The Nets had the second-worst defensive
efficiency last season, and offensive-minded additions like Lin, Luis Scola and Greivis Vasquez aren't going to help matters.

This is a very oversimplified explanation but it gets back to the same thing everyone keeps talking about. They think Rose and Noah are the keys but I think really it's more about KP, Melo, Jennings and the bench. Rose and Noah don't have to really try and carry the team. They can be mostly facilitators. Rose pushing the ball and making PnR plays. Noah rebounding, defending and passing at a high level. Both players are more than capable of doing those things.

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:pretty fair and of course Rose and Noah are keys and injury risks and Melo and Jennings are as well. If everyone stayed healthy, even I would agree that 50 games is definitely possible.

They need relative health for the age and condition that they're in at this point. I suspect they'll be held out some games for maintenance. Hopefully we can avoid Tripping Over Refs this year.

I am not worried about the fluke injuries, there is nothing that can be done about that and its random.

I am worried that we have players that are at a much higher risk for injury do to their track record. We need to beat the odds.

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:pretty fair and of course Rose and Noah are keys and injury risks and Melo and Jennings are as well. If everyone stayed healthy, even I would agree that 50 games is definitely possible.

They need relative health for the age and condition that they're in at this point. I suspect they'll be held out some games for maintenance. Hopefully we can avoid Tripping Over Refs this year.

I am not worried about the fluke injuries, there is nothing that can be done about that and its random.

I am worried that we have players that are at a much higher risk for injury do to their track record. We need to beat the odds.

I'm not even focused on injury of any kind. The most important thing is how these players will come together as a unit and maximize the talent they have. How well Hornacek can merge the talent on this team into a cohesive unit. How well he can bring along the younger new players on the bench so that they can provide much needed production of the bench.

I'm interested in the progress of KP and if Chasson Randle can show enough to be a useful PG for this team. What will Kuz and Willy give us? That's the stuff i'm really interested in seeing.

your getting lost again ... the focus was the prediction. The prediction focused on the injury history. You posted it ...

This season is all about beating the injury odds, if they stay healthy than most think they will be a good team. Its pretty simple.

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:pretty fair and of course Rose and Noah are keys and injury risks and Melo and Jennings are as well. If everyone stayed healthy, even I would agree that 50 games is definitely possible.

They need relative health for the age and condition that they're in at this point. I suspect they'll be held out some games for maintenance. Hopefully we can avoid Tripping Over Refs this year.

I am not worried about the fluke injuries, there is nothing that can be done about that and its random.

I am worried that we have players that are at a much higher risk for injury do to their track record. We need to beat the odds.

I'm not even focused on injury of any kind. The most important thing is how these players will come together as a unit and maximize the talent they have. How well Hornacek can merge the talent on this team into a cohesive unit. How well he can bring along the younger new players on the bench so that they can provide much needed production of the bench.

I'm interested in the progress of KP and if Chasson Randle can show enough to be a useful PG for this team. What will Kuz and Willy give us? That's the stuff i'm really interested in seeing.

your getting lost again ... the focus was the prediction. The prediction focused on the injury history. You posted it ...

This season is all about beating the injury odds, if they stay healthy than most think they will be a good team. Its pretty simple.

I posted it but don't have to agree with it. I've stated what I think are important factors for this team to focus on. You can't focus on injuries!!! You can't predict if or when they happen. Is it a concern? Sure but it's only one aspect of many for this team.

As I said above the further development of KP is huge. All the other factors I mentioned are of great impact. Hornacek making the game easier for these players is a huge factor. For me saying they've gotta stay healthy is obvious and simplistic.

This team is looking to be a top team in the East so a lot of things need to come together for that to happen. A prediction of 9th is mostly based on a lack of health but not much else it seems.

Beating the injury odds and blowing up any negative predictions with high-risk starters is going to really be predicated on how well Hornacek can keep to the SanTone model of maintenance, as you and dk7th have stated.

We can't afford to utilize the bench we have in the standard NBA historical model of end of game garbage time only. We aren't looking at Chris Smith and Cole Aldrich here. Almost all these yoots will need serious, in-game burn. That makes us that much more dangerous as a team, and that will hopefully keep the scar tissue from opening back up on the starters. It may cost us more than a few games we might otherwise win, but developing what we have on the bench and not having KP and Melo and Rose and Noah in suits and crutches at the end of the 'jv season' will be key. The first done successfully should avoid the second.

High 40's and the playoffs would be nice at this point. And I realize I should only think a chip is nice, but homers tend to be slightly more mellow these days...

Forget the 54 win season. Despite the mellowness, I almost think I can actually smell 1999.

Nalod wrote:The starting 5 if healthy is a 50 win team.
The bench if need to step up is the wild card.
The bench to support the team is as well. If one or two can break out that would be big.

Healthy meaning MVP Derrick Rose and All-Star Noah? I think it would need at least one of those two for the team to win 50 or everything else would have to go perfectly.

CrushAlot wrote:Apparently Caris LeVert had another foot surgery. He sounds positive but it sounds like something that could impact his career. Hopefully this fixes things for him.

The issue was the surgeries, but LeVert told reporters that the Nets foot and ankle specialist, Dr. Martin O’Malley, believes his foot woes are behind him.

"This surgery was a little different from the other ones. He did it a little bit differently. He’s really confident this should be the last one," he said. "He took like a bone transfusion from my hip to my foot, took a bone graft from my hip and put it in my foot. Plus a bigger screw."

So sort of a foot reconstruction, like what Dr. O’Malley did with Brook Lopez two years ago?

"Yeah, you could sorta say that ... it was very similar."

http://www.netsdaily.com/2016/9/26/13065980/caris-levert-doc-says-latest-surgery-should-fix-things-for-good

I'm sorry to hear this kid still has some issues. I like his talent. Hopefully he can eventually get past this stuff.