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Knickoftime
Posts: 24159 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 1/13/2011 Member: #3370 |
10/25/2016 2:22 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/
People should read this piece to get a sense of where the real polling science is at this days. Its about how every question people have about poll accuracy and bias is continually addressed. About how polls are calibrated against hard data to improve their value. This to me is the most interesting thing about 538 (but the whole thing is worth a read). Assumption No. 4: State outcomes are highly correlated with one another, so polling errors in one state are likely to be replicated in other, similar states. What this means in a nutshell is they look for historic patterns in how different states vote, and if a pattern of actual voting patterns from real hard data, their methodology accounts for a poll in Michigan might also preview trends in Pennsylvania, and vice versa. And again, this correlation is based on historic hard data trends, not assumptions or opinions. |
DrAlphaeus
Posts: 23751 Alba Posts: 10 Joined: 12/19/2007 Member: #1781 |
10/25/2016 2:29 PM
meloshouldgo wrote:DrAlphaeus wrote:Reading a long form article in The Atlantic right now: I listen to the Majority Report with Sam Seder. He just had an interview with a writer named Barry C Lynn on the topic of Fighting Monolopies. He started talking about the monopoly that Luxottica has over eyeglasses and sunglasses. If you've been to Lenscrafters, Sunglass Hut or Pearle Vision, or own Ray-Bans or Oakleys, you have given Luxottica money. From there they go into some of the topics discussed in The Atlantic article, and talked about Silicon Valley companies as the "new railroads" — if you think about how important the railroads were to 19th century business, and how Google, Facebook, etc. are the new railroads, Amazon is the Walmart... Baba Booey 2016 — "It's Silly Season"
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Knickoftime
Posts: 24159 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 1/13/2011 Member: #3370 |
10/25/2016 4:48 PM
Trump surges ahead in new poll...
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BRIGGS
Posts: 53275 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 7/30/2002 Member: #303 |
10/25/2016 5:40 PM
How many "quiet" voters will Trump get? My guess is a LOT more than is advertised.
RIP Crushalot😞
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