nixluva wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:Pelton is on this podcast and talks about the projections. The host set him up to make fun of the Knicks but I enjoyed a lot of the podcast. Not much about coaching changes and Pelton addresses that but didn't mention Jeff at the point where I had to turn it off (10 minutes left).
https://audioboom.com/boos/4996185-episode-42-espn-s-kevin-pelton-talking-real-plus-minus-projections?t=0

It was a good listen. Lots of explanation of how Adjusted Real Plus Minus works. Age Regression and Injury Time Lost factors. The Knicks Issues seemed to mostly be about Rose, not being good on Back to Backs or with only 1 day of rest. He said Rose is really good on 2 Days, which showed up in the Post Season. Pelton said the overall Injury Risk meant missed games for Rose, Melo, Noah and even Jennings he wasn't too high on. He noted a lack of depth. Liked LT but doubted he would be as good from 3pt range. Didn't think Willy and Kuz would help much. Questions about the 3rd PG coming out of camp.

It was pretty much what we've heard before. IMO because of the way they do these stats it's not going to take into account a short span of time since they do this based on several years. So Rose is definitely going to look bad based on the last 3 years, which were injury hampered. The same would go for Melo, Jennings and Noah. IMO the way that this group can make the game easier for each other tends not to be factored in at all. These RPM stats are based on the Individual. I think this group has a very good fit along with the style of offense that Hornacek will have them play, which I think will enhance the abilities of everyone. RPM can't account for that impact because there's no way to gauge it.

you make it seem like the knicks will find the fountain of youth such that their injury histories can be glossed over. wake up: they can't. you are simply being unrealistic. their being able to fit together, mesh, and hornacek's coaching abilities, etc... that is *your* hope, wish, fantasy, having zero bearing on reality. that's why most projection models show the knicks winning in the mid to upper thirties.

there is one way they can get around those models, which is recasting the team around kp6, and hornacek imposing an agenda on rose, noah, and yes even melo to that end. it's a bit of a gamble, but unless they do it the knicks have no real upside. if hornacek is looking at the same projection models everyone else is, then it behooves him to make this change. it worked for the spurs and duncan in his rookie season. there is no good reason the knicks cannot do the same with kp6 in his sophomore season.

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:Pelton is on this podcast and talks about the projections. The host set him up to make fun of the Knicks but I enjoyed a lot of the podcast. Not much about coaching changes and Pelton addresses that but didn't mention Jeff at the point where I had to turn it off (10 minutes left).
https://audioboom.com/boos/4996185-episode-42-espn-s-kevin-pelton-talking-real-plus-minus-projections?t=0

It was a good listen. Lots of explanation of how Adjusted Real Plus Minus works. Age Regression and Injury Time Lost factors. The Knicks Issues seemed to mostly be about Rose, not being good on Back to Backs or with only 1 day of rest. He said Rose is really good on 2 Days, which showed up in the Post Season. Pelton said the overall Injury Risk meant missed games for Rose, Melo, Noah and even Jennings he wasn't too high on. He noted a lack of depth. Liked LT but doubted he would be as good from 3pt range. Didn't think Willy and Kuz would help much. Questions about the 3rd PG coming out of camp.

It was pretty much what we've heard before. IMO because of the way they do these stats it's not going to take into account a short span of time since they do this based on several years. So Rose is definitely going to look bad based on the last 3 years, which were injury hampered. The same would go for Melo, Jennings and Noah. IMO the way that this group can make the game easier for each other tends not to be factored in at all. These RPM stats are based on the Individual. I think this group has a very good fit along with the style of offense that Hornacek will have them play, which I think will enhance the abilities of everyone. RPM can't account for that impact because there's no way to gauge it.

you make it seem like the knicks will find the fountain of youth such that their injury histories can be glossed over. wake up: they can't. you are simply being unrealistic. their being able to fit together, mesh, and hornacek's coaching abilities, etc... that is *your* hope, wish, fantasy, having zero bearing on reality. that's why most projection models show the knicks winning in the mid to upper thirties.

there is one way they can get around those models, which is recasting the team around kp6, and hornacek imposing an agenda on rose, noah, and yes even melo to that end. it's a bit of a gamble, but unless they do it the knicks have no real upside. if hornacek is looking at the same projection models everyone else is, then it behooves him to make this change. it worked for the spurs and duncan in his rookie season. there is no good reason the knicks cannot do the same with kp6 in his sophomore season.

So it's not about finding some fountain of youth as you put it. It's also not about hope, wishes or fantasy. It's about very real talent and very smart coaching from Hornacek. This team has some good leadership and a high motivation level. They already have gotten started with building chemistry and bonding. I could care less about the 35 win prediction. As built last year this team could easily have won that many games with a little bit of luck health wise. Had Melo not tripped on that ref for instance. So to me that 35 win prediction is unusually low based on the down year Rose had more than anything else. They aren't accounting for Rose and Jennings being motivated to play well for their next contract. They aren't accounting for the impact of Hornacek either.

Cartman718 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:Pelton is on this podcast and talks about the projections. The host set him up to make fun of the Knicks but I enjoyed a lot of the podcast. Not much about coaching changes and Pelton addresses that but didn't mention Jeff at the point where I had to turn it off (10 minutes left).
https://audioboom.com/boos/4996185-episode-42-espn-s-kevin-pelton-talking-real-plus-minus-projections?t=0

It was a good listen. Lots of explanation of how Adjusted Real Plus Minus works. Age Regression and Injury Time Lost factors. The Knicks Issues seemed to mostly be about Rose, not being good on Back to Backs or with only 1 day of rest. He said Rose is really good on 2 Days, which showed up in the Post Season. Pelton said the overall Injury Risk meant missed games for Rose, Melo, Noah and even Jennings he wasn't too high on. He noted a lack of depth. Liked LT but doubted he would be as good from 3pt range. Didn't think Willy and Kuz would help much. Questions about the 3rd PG coming out of camp.

It was pretty much what we've heard before. IMO because of the way they do these stats it's not going to take into account a short span of time since they do this based on several years. So Rose is definitely going to look bad based on the last 3 years, which were injury hampered. The same would go for Melo, Jennings and Noah. IMO the way that this group can make the game easier for each other tends not to be factored in at all. These RPM stats are based on the Individual. I think this group has a very good fit along with the style of offense that Hornacek will have them play, which I think will enhance the abilities of everyone. RPM can't account for that impact because there's no way to gauge it.

you make it seem like the knicks will find the fountain of youth such that their injury histories can be glossed over. wake up: they can't. you are simply being unrealistic. their being able to fit together, mesh, and hornacek's coaching abilities, etc... that is *your* hope, wish, fantasy, having zero bearing on reality. that's why most projection models show the knicks winning in the mid to upper thirties.

there is one way they can get around those models, which is recasting the team around kp6, and hornacek imposing an agenda on rose, noah, and yes even melo to that end. it's a bit of a gamble, but unless they do it the knicks have no real upside. if hornacek is looking at the same projection models everyone else is, then it behooves him to make this change. it worked for the spurs and duncan in his rookie season. there is no good reason the knicks cannot do the same with kp6 in his sophomore season.

Aside from your insulting characterization of my view, I think there will be a balance to this Knicks team. KP as i've stated OVER AND OVER is already a Primary Scorer for this team. He's already going to get the ball a lot. So will Rose and Melo since they are the other Primary scorers. In addition this team has a lot of talent and under Hornacek I expect that we'll see him get a lot out of his roster. Hornacek was able to get the most out of Gerald Green of any coach. I think JH will be good for a lot of the players on this team. He'll simplify things and put them in better scoring situations. JH will tailor things to the strengths of each player.

So it's not about finding some fountain of youth as you put it. It's also not about hope, wishes or fantasy. It's about very real talent and very smart coaching from Hornacek. This team has some good leadership and a high motivation level. They already have gotten started with building chemistry and bonding. I could care less about the 35 win prediction. As built last year this team could easily have won that many games with a little bit of luck health wise. Had Melo not tripped on that ref for instance. So to me that 35 win prediction is unusually low based on the down year Rose had more than anything else. They aren't accounting for Rose and Jennings being motivated to play well for their next contract. They aren't accounting for the impact of Hornacek either.

agree with everything you said....this cast looks and FEELS that it will gel way better than new teammates in the last decade especially because they are all but Noah trying to play for their contract years.

impact of the urgency within their own minds, impact of the coach... all are intangibles that cannot really be measured. but you're wasting your breath on dk. he's a stat guy.

He is not a stat guy, he just chooses to not have blind love.

knickscity wrote:I actually think that prediction is somewhat low. I have the Knicks right around 40-45 pending health.

I do to but you can't pend it on health.

mreinman wrote:

Cartman718 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:Pelton is on this podcast and talks about the projections. The host set him up to make fun of the Knicks but I enjoyed a lot of the podcast. Not much about coaching changes and Pelton addresses that but didn't mention Jeff at the point where I had to turn it off (10 minutes left).
https://audioboom.com/boos/4996185-episode-42-espn-s-kevin-pelton-talking-real-plus-minus-projections?t=0

It was a good listen. Lots of explanation of how Adjusted Real Plus Minus works. Age Regression and Injury Time Lost factors. The Knicks Issues seemed to mostly be about Rose, not being good on Back to Backs or with only 1 day of rest. He said Rose is really good on 2 Days, which showed up in the Post Season. Pelton said the overall Injury Risk meant missed games for Rose, Melo, Noah and even Jennings he wasn't too high on. He noted a lack of depth. Liked LT but doubted he would be as good from 3pt range. Didn't think Willy and Kuz would help much. Questions about the 3rd PG coming out of camp.

It was pretty much what we've heard before. IMO because of the way they do these stats it's not going to take into account a short span of time since they do this based on several years. So Rose is definitely going to look bad based on the last 3 years, which were injury hampered. The same would go for Melo, Jennings and Noah. IMO the way that this group can make the game easier for each other tends not to be factored in at all. These RPM stats are based on the Individual. I think this group has a very good fit along with the style of offense that Hornacek will have them play, which I think will enhance the abilities of everyone. RPM can't account for that impact because there's no way to gauge it.

you make it seem like the knicks will find the fountain of youth such that their injury histories can be glossed over. wake up: they can't. you are simply being unrealistic. their being able to fit together, mesh, and hornacek's coaching abilities, etc... that is *your* hope, wish, fantasy, having zero bearing on reality. that's why most projection models show the knicks winning in the mid to upper thirties.

there is one way they can get around those models, which is recasting the team around kp6, and hornacek imposing an agenda on rose, noah, and yes even melo to that end. it's a bit of a gamble, but unless they do it the knicks have no real upside. if hornacek is looking at the same projection models everyone else is, then it behooves him to make this change. it worked for the spurs and duncan in his rookie season. there is no good reason the knicks cannot do the same with kp6 in his sophomore season.

Aside from your insulting characterization of my view, I think there will be a balance to this Knicks team. KP as i've stated OVER AND OVER is already a Primary Scorer for this team. He's already going to get the ball a lot. So will Rose and Melo since they are the other Primary scorers. In addition this team has a lot of talent and under Hornacek I expect that we'll see him get a lot out of his roster. Hornacek was able to get the most out of Gerald Green of any coach. I think JH will be good for a lot of the players on this team. He'll simplify things and put them in better scoring situations. JH will tailor things to the strengths of each player.

So it's not about finding some fountain of youth as you put it. It's also not about hope, wishes or fantasy. It's about very real talent and very smart coaching from Hornacek. This team has some good leadership and a high motivation level. They already have gotten started with building chemistry and bonding. I could care less about the 35 win prediction. As built last year this team could easily have won that many games with a little bit of luck health wise. Had Melo not tripped on that ref for instance. So to me that 35 win prediction is unusually low based on the down year Rose had more than anything else. They aren't accounting for Rose and Jennings being motivated to play well for their next contract. They aren't accounting for the impact of Hornacek either.

agree with everything you said....this cast looks and FEELS that it will gel way better than new teammates in the last decade especially because they are all but Noah trying to play for their contract years.

impact of the urgency within their own minds, impact of the coach... all are intangibles that cannot really be measured. but you're wasting your breath on dk. he's a stat guy.

He is not a stat guy, he just chooses to not have blind love.