Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin and top comeback candidates - NBA
by Bradford Doolittle on 2016-08-14 01:24:04 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17341883/anthony-davis-blake-griffin-top-comeback-candidates-nba)

Which players will bounce back this season? We project the 12 comeback candidates to watch, including a new Knick and four of the NBA's biggest stars.

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To be a comeback player, you have to be up, go down, and come back up.

Who doesn't love a good comeback story? It's inspiring.

Here are 12 comeback candidates for the approaching season, all of whom meet the following criteria:

They finished last season at least three wins above replacement (WARP) shy of their 2015-16 SCHOENE forecast.

They were in at least their fourth NBA season, as it's hard to think of the really young guys as true comeback candidates.

They have a 2016-17 SCHOENE forecast to recover at least two of those missing WARP from last season's shortfall.

1. Anthony Davis | Plus-6.7 WARP

The big thing undermining Davis' results last season was health, as he was limited to 61 games by shoulder and knee trouble.

Unfortunately, injuries are becoming an annual thing with him. Davis heads into his age-23 season with a career-high of 68 games played.

Beyond that, Davis became more fixated on the 3-point line. That's not a bad thing, but he needs to shoot better (32.4 percent last season). Also, spending more time on the perimeter cuts into Davis' offensive rebounding. And if he's going play out there, he needs to develop as a facilitator.

But SCHOENE sees what we all know -- time is on Davis' side and, really, it all comes down to health.

2. Kyrie Irving | Plus-6.0 WARP

Irving has already come back. After being held out early last season to rehab a knee injury and getting off to a sluggish start, Irving was better than ever while helping LeBron James deliver Cleveland its first NBA title.

He has been dynamite this summer in Rio, too. So, sure, he's due to put up more WARP, but Irving is not a classic comeback candidate.

3. Blake Griffin | Plus-5.5 WARP

Last season was a miserable one for Griffin, with injury trouble stemming from both on- and off-court activities. The Clippers played well enough without Griffin that the prospect of dealing him became a popular topic.

Now he heads into a key 2016-17 season after which he can exercise an early-termination option and cash in on the new salary cap as a free agent.

SCHOENE sees Griffin recovering some efficiency this season, but mostly it sees him staying on the court.

4. Joakim Noah | Plus-3.5 WARP

What a miserable last season it was in Chicago for Noah, who played in a career-low 29 games after having his season ended by a dislocated shoulder. Even before that happened, Noah was relegated to reserve duty in the Bulls' crowded frontcourt and he put up a career-low 14.1 player efficiency rating.

It wasn't so long ago that Noah was a first-team All-NBA center. Now in New York, he needs to stay healthy and show that his perceived fit in the triangle offense is reality.

Statistically, SCHOENE sees Noah improving upon last season's .406 true shooting percentage.

5. DeMarre Carroll | Plus-3.3 WARP

Carroll finished with just 0.7 WARP during a disappointing first season in Toronto. He played in only 26 games and the Raptors rolled to their best-ever regular season mostly without him.

Carroll then spent almost as much time on the court in the playoffs as he did during the season, but even with Toronto advancing to the Eastern Conference finals, he put up just a 9.9 playoff PER.

SCHOENE projects a healthier Carroll will revert to more of the lower-usage, higher-efficiency role he played in Atlanta.

6. Brandon Knight | Plus-2.9 WARP

SCHOENE doesn't really project much different for Knight on a per-possession basis, but it does have him getting healthier. That seems like a good bet given Knight's work ethic and the fact that he's just 25.

7. Eric Bledsoe | Plus-2.9 WARP

Like Knight, Bledsoe just needs to stay on the court. He was enjoying a career season before injuring his knee in December.

Both Knight and Bledsoe will need to prove they are back, because the Suns have Devin Booker vying to assume a bigger role that usurps their minutes and touches.

8. Kyle Korver | Plus-2.6 WARP

Korver is a durable, workaholic player, but he's entering his age-36 season.

SCHOENE sees Korver bouncing back in 3-point percentage, which comprises so much of his box score value. But he's got to retain enough of his athleticism to move without the ball as effectively as he always has.

9. Brandan Wright | Plus-2.5 WARP

Wright's first season in Memphis was limited to 12 games by multiple knee injuries, which for Memphis was compounded by the Grizzlies' many injuries throughout the roster.

Wright's results from last year are rendered mostly meaningless by the injuries and the small sample size.

10. Marc Gasol | Plus-2.4 WARP

Gasol was injured, of course, but even before he suffered a broken foot, he wasn't playing up to normal standards. Gasol's rebound rates were at a career low, his block rate was down and his true shooting percentage was near his worst ever.

Big-man foot problems are always a worry. But as for the rest, SCHOENE projects that Gasol will at least get some of those rebounds back.

11. Markieff Morris | Plus-2.2 WARP

Morris sulked his way out of Phoenix after the Suns traded his brother.

He played better for Washington (10.8 PER with the Suns to 14.0 with the Wizards) but still not at the level of his previous couple of seasons. Overall, he was below replacement-level for the 2015-16 season.

SCHONE projects that Morris will be more efficient with his possessions this season, both in terms of the distribution and the accuracy of his scoring chances.

12. Terrence Jones | Plus-2.1 WARP

Jones struggled badly in his final Rockets season on a Houston team that needed an answer at power forward. Now reunited with college teammate Anthony Davis in New Orleans, SCHOENE has Jones being a little less dependent on 3-pointers under Alvin Gentry and rebounding better. He's still young enough to own an upwards aging curve.

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