dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

dk7th wrote:last summer i used win shares of players coming and going to arrive at a figure of 34 wins last season. this summer i have done much the same and have arrived at between 38-43 wins, factoring in my own personal probability scale of injury to rose, noah, and melo.

basically, in order to exceed that range, ie 43 wins and up, kp6 will have to explode somewhat in his second season... but for that to happen hornacek is going to have to coach the team well, particularly the point guards on the roster

I expect the Knicks to exceed the Win Share predictions. Rose and Noah IMO will be refreshed mentally, physically and will be more motivated. The roster will have more talent around them, so neither player will have to overexert themselves. The individual players will be able to get easier looks when there are multiple threats on the floor with this improved roster.

A transition with Rose pushing the ball should create openings for others as he draws attention.

Transition PPP 2015-16
Courtney Lee        1.40
Kyle O'Quinn        1.17
Lance Thomas        1.14
Kristaps Porzingis  0.95
Carmelo Anthony     0.93
Derrick Rose        0.85
Sasha Vujacic       0.80
Brandon Jennings    0.74

The same with Screens and PnR plays. Melo and KP are special players since they are threats from anywhere on the floor and this will only help Rose in PnR plays. Increasing the amount of PnR and Screen plays should really help to boost the team's scoring ability.

Pick and Roll Ball Handler PPP 2015-16
Courtney Lee        0.93	
Derrick Rose        0.84
Carmelo Anthony     0.80
Brandon Jennings    0.61	
Pick and Roll Finisher PPP 2015-16
Kristaps Porzingis  1.07	
Carmelo Anthony     0.97
Lance Thomas        0.83
Kyle O'Quinn        0.77
Off Screen PPP 2015-16
Carmelo Anthony     1.08
Kristaps Porzingis  0.89
Derrick Rose        0.88
Courtney Lee        0.87
Justin Holiday      0.73

The Head Coach has a style that fits the strengths of these players. Hornacek's schemes will enhance the strengths of the players on this team. It's actually easy to know this because the uptempo, Spread, PnR and Screen heavy style he's bringing is statistically shown to be the best part of many of the players game. IMO we should see an increase in efficiency from these players as they improve in their execution of PnR, Screens, Cuts and shooting more 3pt shots.

I can't find the article now but I believe that source that predicted 38 wins based on win shares was already assuming that Rose, Noah, Jennings, and KP would all produce more than last year. If it assumed they'd repeat last year, it probably would have come out closer to 30.

That would make me question their analysis even more if that's the case. I also read an article suggesting that even if Rose played better than last year that the Knicks would still end up with only 38 wins. I wasn't convinced of that argument.

The thing is that it's not about how these players performed when they weren't paying with each other. It's about how they'll perform as a team TOGETHER next season and that includes Hornacek and his schemes. How they'll function together is going to be of huge importance. One writer mentions the Usage for Rose and Melo and how that will be a problem.

Rose, on the other hand, was 10th among NBA point guards with a 27.3 USG% last year and was one of the top two PGs in that stat during every other season he’s played except his rookie campaign (2008–09). It doesn’t seem plausible that the Knicks will be able to maximize the performances of both Rose and Anthony (another high usage player, at 29.7% last year), while also trying to get their young star, Porzingis (24.6% last year), even more touches as he continues his development.

https://thecauldron.si.com/yeah-but-what-if-everything-goes-right-for-the-knicks-565419a26dcf#.3alr7x887

Will it be a problem tho? In Hornacek's schemes they will look for more Early Offense and Quick Scores and less slowed down Half Court. As I pointed out above the Knicks will be far more efficient with more Transition scoring attempts. With our guards last year we hardly got any transition baskets. The same goes for more PnR and Screen looks, which we didn't see enough of last year. A big increase in PnR and Screen looks will also have a positive impact on the team's efficiency. It's the combination of Players and Coach that I think these analysts are not fully exploring. Past performance is only so helpful in this regard. You have to use it as a clue but then understand how having aggressive and attacking PG's will have a positive impact on Melo and KP. Having a dependable shooter like Lee will also help to balance the floor.

it'll be a problem if hornacek can't get rose to change the way he plays. but really... never mind bout rose or jennings outside of their pushing the ball in transition. just accept that they are both not that good as playmakers in the halfcourt and you can't expect that to improve no matter how hard hornacek drives things home.

now-- your real and primary focus should be on how many frontcourt players are passers on this team!! melo surprised everyone with his playmaking passes last season and i expect coachh to continue to harness that resource. jo noah is an absolutely great passer. there are rumors of hernangomez's abilities as a passer. and then there's kp6, who has terrific court vision, is a team player, and soaks up everything at a high rate. you don't think he's interested in being a playmaker?

so the focus, especially if the triangle is being used as an inside-out offense, should be on frontcourt playmaking and the guards doing a lot of back cuts.

you win by hiding weaknesses and exploiting strengths. rose and jennings are weak at passing so why should the focus of success be dependent on that changing for the better?

I agree about using the post passers. Of course Hornacek is gonna make use of post passing. That's a huge part of the offense. However I do expect JH to get more playmaking out of our guards as well. With Melo, KP and Lee on the floor it's just common sense for Rose to drive and kick, which would make his life so much easier.