nixluva wrote:mreinman wrote:nixluva wrote:mreinman wrote:nixluva wrote:mreinman wrote:nixluva wrote:mreinman wrote:nixluva wrote:Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that. It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.
I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.
you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.
Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".
I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.
A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.
I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.
I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team. I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.
you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.
I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...
You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.
The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.
Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.
so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.
So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.
Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?
1st of all i'm usually just a few games more than the average poster on this forum. Even this year i'm 5 games above you at my base prediction. 45 vs 50 wins. I've actually been on target a few years but that's besides the point. I'm notedly taking the highest possible angle when I look at the team. I'm not making predictions for the purpose of betting. I'm looking at the team and coaching and the league and making my best guess for what I think this team can do if everything works as expected. So i'm not tempering my predictions as much as an Odds Maker. That's just my personal approach to looking at the team. I fully recognize how Pro's set expectations but i'm not a pro trying to hedge my prediction. For the Pros dealing with betting they are not solely looking at the predicted outcome but also trying to aid betting. That's not what i'm trying to do.I know for a FACT that some of the things I factor in are not part of the Pros methods for prediction. It's just a completely different approach for different purposes.
you are 5 more than me but I am 5 more already because of my bias ...
So if you understand that you are not a pro and agree that you are taking the approach of having "everything work" ... that is totally fine but you can't question if pros or posters don't share your optimism or expectations ...
This is not just about predicting our record but its also about predict performance.
Well to question or challenge is the very nature of a forum like this. Disagreement is fine. I just don't like the fact that at times there's almost a built in negative take with regard to the Knicks. There's often a tendency to ignore factors the Knicks have in their favor. Factors that could lead to this team being more successful than the stats from previous seasons might indicate. For example how this new team feels about each other and how they fit together as a unit and with the goals of the head coach all matter. This Knicks team is very much a team that has been built on some close relationships. Some NY or Big City guys are at the heart of the roster as well. There's some good leadership qualities on this roster. A nice mix of talent that covers a lot of different skills. There are players like Rose and Jennings who are playing for their next contract and they're going to do everything possible to come in more prepared and ready to play at the highest level they can. In short it's an atmosphere where these players are pumped up to get to work and to have a good season.
I think Hornacek will have a huge impact on the success of these players. I love his concepts for how he wants to use his talent. His move to more uptempo, early offense, spread offense, with increased PnR and 3pt shooting is going to benefit the talents of these players.
We really don't know how they (will) feel about each other and how Melo and Rose will share the ball. If they will clash slightly, badly, or minimally, and we don't how JH will manage these ego's and if he will be good at it - the jury is still out on this ability of his.
We know what JH would like to do such as be more efficient and shoot lots of threes and eliminate a lot of the mid range silly shots. Fred Hoiberg was a phenomenal coach in college and is the biggest proponent of all these things but he could not get his team to play this way and he certainly could not get Rose to change his shot selection. Now you will say but we have Phil Jackson and he will make sure it will work ... I don't but that at all and he has not had success getting things working here as of yet so he too is a big unknown (at best) at this point.
Players are super pumped with BIG reasons to come out blazing ... see Amare ... offseason pump is perfect for offseason but it is all meaningless until they prove or disprove it on the court. I believe that vegas takes all this into account and they actually have shown some faith since they are picking them to be decent and a bottoming playoff seed.
so here is what phil is thinking ....