Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I could see this team winning 50ish games. I could see them winning 38 too. Really boils down to injuries.

Really? 38 is the low end of what you could see?

no probably lower but I wasn't the one who wrote the article and truthfully I given the issue much thought. There is a significant amount of range to what the possible outcomes could be because Phil really doubled down on the guys coming off of injury.

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I could see this team winning 50ish games. I could see them winning 38 too. Really boils down to injuries.

Really? 38 is the low end of what you could see?

the upgrade on defense of lee over afflalo *will* gain them a couple of games. kp6 in his second year *will* add them a couple of games. lopez's minutes were around 25 minutes a game, which is what i expect noah's minutes to be, and noah's backups (hernangomez), though unproven, are *likely* an upgrade over seraphin, and that'll add 1 game. hornacek's coaching will add another game. that's 38 games.

I'm asking about downside. You have a bunch of role players who will likely move the win column minimally. If Rose and Noah repeat least year's performances and a few other things don't go well (like Melo ages, KP is about the same as last year), I could see us with a bottom 3 record. We're talking worst case scenario here.

i see rose/jennings vis a vis calderon as a wash so i don't see a downside. and i don't like any of them as it is, but the ability to push the ball in transition has to count for something over and against calderon who was incapable. in other words, the knicks should average at least 6 fast break points per game, and that has to be a consideration. at worst a wash.
i see noah vis a vis lopez as a wash, with the potential to add a couple of wins, and i am not discounting injury there.
i see no downside to hernangomez vis a vis seraphin.

if they don't win 38 games it will be because both rose and noah break down during the same stretch of time. if that happens that will be due more to their playing too many minutes... but, again i cannot see that being the case.

there are probabilities involving a worst case scenario, either with bad chemistry OR bad injuries. my worst case scenario sees a greater likelihood for the former and lower likelihood for the latter. moreover, kp6 and noah will mitigate the former, as will melo, who i cannot see regressing to bad melo while in a knick uniform. and while on melo, his minutes should be cut back to the 26-28 range too.

sorry for the ramble but that is how i see things.

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I could see this team winning 50ish games. I could see them winning 38 too. Really boils down to injuries.

Really? 38 is the low end of what you could see?

the upgrade on defense of lee over afflalo *will* gain them a couple of games. kp6 in his second year *will* add them a couple of games. lopez's minutes were around 25 minutes a game, which is what i expect noah's minutes to be, and noah's backups (hernangomez), though unproven, are *likely* an upgrade over seraphin, and that'll add 1 game. hornacek's coaching will add another game. that's 38 games.

I'm asking about downside. You have a bunch of role players who will likely move the win column minimally. If Rose and Noah repeat least year's performances and a few other things don't go well (like Melo ages, KP is about the same as last year), I could see us with a bottom 3 record. We're talking worst case scenario here.

I agree. That is the worst case scenario. If it's a matter of just aging and people are just on the decline, I can see us being a 38 win team, especially if KP doesn't make much progress. If people are getting hurt, we can be a bottom of the barrel team. If they play up to their potential, we can easily be a 50+ win team. To me, all 3 scenarios are equally possible. Hence, I am happy about the team but still holding back on my enthusiasm a bit.

Allanfan20 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I could see this team winning 50ish games. I could see them winning 38 too. Really boils down to injuries.

Really? 38 is the low end of what you could see?

the upgrade on defense of lee over afflalo *will* gain them a couple of games. kp6 in his second year *will* add them a couple of games. lopez's minutes were around 25 minutes a game, which is what i expect noah's minutes to be, and noah's backups (hernangomez), though unproven, are *likely* an upgrade over seraphin, and that'll add 1 game. hornacek's coaching will add another game. that's 38 games.

I'm asking about downside. You have a bunch of role players who will likely move the win column minimally. If Rose and Noah repeat least year's performances and a few other things don't go well (like Melo ages, KP is about the same as last year), I could see us with a bottom 3 record. We're talking worst case scenario here.

I agree. That is the worst case scenario. If it's a matter of just aging and people are just on the decline, I can see us being a 38 win team, especially if KP doesn't make much progress. If people are getting hurt, we can be a bottom of the barrel team. If they play up to their potential, we can easily be a 50+ win team. To me, all 3 scenarios are equally possible. Hence, I am happy about the team but still holding back on my enthusiasm a bit.

+1

if you're willing to accept that as a realistic worst case, then I feel you should acknowledge that it is a possibility that Noah wins DPOY, Melo wins the scoring championship, and Rose is an MVP. Usually when you do this sort of analysis you remove the extreme outliers.

I feel like saying the range is 38 to 52 is more meaningful that saying we could win between 15 and 70 games...

nixluva wrote:

ChuckBuck wrote:I don't mind if the Knicks only achieve 38 wins or worst. That'd be in the best interest long term for the franchise. The Bulls this year ended up with the 15th pick with 42 wins, so conservatively that'd put the Knicks with a top 15 pick or better.

Nothing wrong with building the franchise and picking some homegrown talent to coincide with KP's prime! (Except those potentially long term albatrosses in Noah and Lee...phuck)

Tho having picks is our safety net, the best interests of the team is to have a successful season. The most important part of the team could be the Trainers and Medical staff. They have to put together a great maintenance regimen to keep everyone strong and healthy. Phil and Jeff have spoken openly about being prepared to give rest.

Either that or just relocate the Knicks to Phoenix and replace the entirety of our medical and training staff with the Suns staff.

Guaranteed health!

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that.

It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.

I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.

you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.

Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".

I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.

A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.

I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.

I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team.

I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.

you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.

I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...

You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.

The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.

Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.

You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.

so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.

So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.

Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that.

It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.

I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.

you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.

Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".

I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.

A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.

I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.

I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team.

I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.

you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.

I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...

You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.

The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.

Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.

You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.

so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.

So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.

Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?

I know for a FACT that some of the things I factor in are not part of the Pros methods for prediction. It's just a completely different approach for different purposes.

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that.

It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.

I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.

you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.

Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".

I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.

A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.

I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.

I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team.

I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.

you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.

I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...

You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.

The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.

Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.

You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.

so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.

So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.

Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?

1st of all i'm usually just a few games more than the average poster on this forum. Even this year i'm 5 games above you at my base prediction. 45 vs 50 wins. I've actually been on target a few years but that's besides the point. I'm notedly taking the highest possible angle when I look at the team. I'm not making predictions for the purpose of betting. I'm looking at the team and coaching and the league and making my best guess for what I think this team can do if everything works as expected. So i'm not tempering my predictions as much as an Odds Maker. That's just my personal approach to looking at the team. I fully recognize how Pro's set expectations but i'm not a pro trying to hedge my prediction. For the Pros dealing with betting they are not solely looking at the predicted outcome but also trying to aid betting. That's not what i'm trying to do.

I know for a FACT that some of the things I factor in are not part of the Pros methods for prediction. It's just a completely different approach for different purposes.

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that.

It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.

I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.

you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.

Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".

I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.

A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.

I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.

I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team.

I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.

you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.

I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...

You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.

The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.

Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.

You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.

so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.

So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.

Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?

1st of all i'm usually just a few games more than the average poster on this forum. Even this year i'm 5 games above you at my base prediction. 45 vs 50 wins. I've actually been on target a few years but that's besides the point. I'm notedly taking the highest possible angle when I look at the team. I'm not making predictions for the purpose of betting. I'm looking at the team and coaching and the league and making my best guess for what I think this team can do if everything works as expected. So i'm not tempering my predictions as much as an Odds Maker. That's just my personal approach to looking at the team. I fully recognize how Pro's set expectations but i'm not a pro trying to hedge my prediction. For the Pros dealing with betting they are not solely looking at the predicted outcome but also trying to aid betting. That's not what i'm trying to do.

I know for a FACT that some of the things I factor in are not part of the Pros methods for prediction. It's just a completely different approach for different purposes.

Being even more off than the average fan isn't a good thing. Do you make an effort to correct for this? You could try to assess how many games you feel the team will win and then subtract 10 or so.

I actually have no problem with my method of predicting. I'm not betting nor am I trying to win some award. I'm giving my view of what I think the team's best outcome could be. I'm not trying to adjust it down in order to play it safe.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:When we start consistently winning, the reviews will become more positive. Until then, it's still open season on us. Whether you like our recent moves (I did) or not, they are still easy to question and there is nothing you can do to argue that.

It's impossible to tell how exactly we will do this season. Everyone has had health and/or decline issues lately.

I wouldn't say "impossible". I think Melo was looking much better in March than he had at any point in the season and the same with Rose. I think they could come back much improved next season. Rose sounds confident and reports are that he's looked pretty good so far this summer. If he can continue this summer conditioning program and come into next season in the best shape of recent years I will be very pleased with that. It's all we can ask at this point. Just come in strong and healthy and take it from there.

you often use words like "could", "possible", etc ... but that has nothing to do with probabilities. These pro predictions are always based on what they believe "will" happen, not what "could" happen.

Rose "could" suck again, players "can" very "possibly" not mesh, Noah can have a similar performance to last year, player "may" not click well with JH, Lance Thomas could regress to the player that he was before this season, Melo ... who knows which Melo will show up .... these are all very "possible".

I remember how Amare used to look like the best offseason player in the world and never shut the fuch up about how great this season would be (and I'm sure that many of us bought that crap). I heard the same crap about how his coming over here with his injury history was not going to be an issue and how its his eye that looks fine now and yada yada yada ... when the season starts its put up or shut up and just like Amare, players who have recently been bad have to prove that they are better and have to prove it on the court, not in the press and on youtube.

A team like this has more question marks than most teams and I am sure the spread of wins and losses predictions are all over the place.

I still am very optimistic as a knick fan and predicted 45 wins but that may be me just being biased.

I'm speaking with conservative words because I can't say "WILL" as if it's 100% assured. In truth neither can the so called experts. They often do talk like that but that doesn't mean you won't get a 54 win Knicks team.

I've stated clearly why I like this team's prospects. It's not all predicated on Rose having another MVP level season. I think this team can win a lot even with Rose and Noah not reaching the levels they once played at. Now if they do play at a high level relative to what they once were then it's even better, but Rose and Noah don't have to carry the team in order for this team to win. It's all about how well they all play as a team.

you missed the point. They predict what the believe "will" happen. They don't say that something is "possible" because of course anything is possible, and they don't say what "could" happen because anything can happen. They actually make a prediction based what they BELIEVE will happen.

I think that this is what Bonn keeps responding to you but it seems that you are completely missing this point. They are basing of a statistical model mixed with random things that they observe such as the coach, injury chances, chemistry, etc ...

You can say that this and that could happen but anyone can say the same for the flip side.

The onus is on the team to go out and prove/answer all these question marks.

Clearly the Knicks have to get it done on the court. Why you think I wouldn't understand how predictions are being made is beyond me. I think i've been alive long enough to understand the concept.

You seem to think that i'm basing my prediction solely off of good feelings and wishes. That's not what i've been saying at at all. I've given my reasoning for why I think this team should be more successful than 38 wins. I wasn't impressed with the Analysis from many of the early predictions i've read. They lack depth IMO.

so why is it that every year your predictions/expectations way higher than the pro's predictions? Now of course the pro's can be wrong, if they set a line of +3 on a football game and a team wins by 30, it does not make them look stupid ... The question is how good they are at setting the line / odds. They are incredible at it and that is why they are in that position.

So why are you always way over? Is that not due to bias and hope with Rose colored glasses? Of course it is and that's fine (we are all biased to some extent) but don't make it like your predictions are objective.

Vegas has us tied for 11th (with 3 other teams) in odds to win it all. That is giving us a lot of respect ... maybe even more than I expected. You think that you factored everything but they did not? Do you think they just throw darts at seen what it hits?

1st of all i'm usually just a few games more than the average poster on this forum. Even this year i'm 5 games above you at my base prediction. 45 vs 50 wins. I've actually been on target a few years but that's besides the point. I'm notedly taking the highest possible angle when I look at the team. I'm not making predictions for the purpose of betting. I'm looking at the team and coaching and the league and making my best guess for what I think this team can do if everything works as expected. So i'm not tempering my predictions as much as an Odds Maker. That's just my personal approach to looking at the team. I fully recognize how Pro's set expectations but i'm not a pro trying to hedge my prediction. For the Pros dealing with betting they are not solely looking at the predicted outcome but also trying to aid betting. That's not what i'm trying to do.

I know for a FACT that some of the things I factor in are not part of the Pros methods for prediction. It's just a completely different approach for different purposes.

Being even more off than the average fan isn't a good thing. Do you make an effort to correct for this? You could try to assess how many games you feel the team will win and then subtract 10 or so.

I actually have no problem with my method of predicting. I'm not betting nor am I trying to win some award. I'm giving my view of what I think the team's best outcome could be. I'm not trying to adjust it down in order to play it safe.