so instead of raw numbers and to brace for the crazy summer, we need to alter the way we look at salaries in relation to the cap. easiest and best way will be percentage. (non rookie deals)

2015 cap was $70 mil.

10 - 15% of the cap is $7 - $10 mil...players like conley, rondo, jennings, pau, ariza, teague, diaw

15 - 20% of the cap is $10 - $14 mil...players like vujecic, gortat, horford, lowry, knight, al jefferson

20 - 25% of the cap is $14 - $18 mil...players like draymond, hayward, harden, butler, george

25 - 30% of the cap is $18 - $21 mil...players like aldridge, wade, melo, durant, paul

for 2016 the cap will be $94 mil. the numbers work out to this:

10 - 15% = $9.4 - $14 mil
15 - 20% = $14 - $19 mil
20 - 25% = $19 - $24 mil
25 - 30% = $24 - $28 mil

so let's use al horford as an example. he made $12 mil in his current contract. that puts him in the middle of the 15 - 20% bracket in 2015. that represents solid value. his new contract should be no more than $17 mil a year due to his age...so anything more than that, and it will be a big overpay. unfortunately, alot of teams may be desperate and i fear that alot of teams are going to significantly overpay instead of using the correct % slot.

for the knicks, noah made $13.4 mil this year. that put him on the higher end of the 15-20% bracket in 2015. due to his age and injuries, he is due for a salary reduction so his salary really shouldnt be more that $9.5 mil a year.

the weird thing is that the MLE will be the same as 2015 making it a really bargain contract for the upcoming season.

update:

salary brackets from 2014 - 2017:

% bracket        2014 ($63 mil)        2015 ($70 mil)       2016 ($94 mil)         2017 ($107 mil)
10-15%           6.3 - 9.5             7 - 10.5             9.4 - 14               10.7 - 16
15-20%           9.5 - 12.6            10.5 - 14            14  - 19               16 - 21
20-25%           12.6 - 15.8           14 - 17.5            19 - 23.4              21 - 26.7
25-30%           15.8 - 19             17.5 - 21            23.4 - 28.2            26.7 - 32

which is why lopez's deal was so dumb and shortsighted. he's currently taking up 1/7 of the salary cap. for an, at best, average starting Center with zero upside, that's terrible value. that's 14+% of the cap. last year it was worse - 18%.

disagree completely about carroll. it was an overpay when they signed him, it's an overpay today. again, if you have to justify the risk-assessment of a contract by saying "Yea, but um, in 2 or 3 years it'll look GREAT!" then you know it's faulty logic. guy was injured this year to boot.

it's like buying stocks. a healthy dividend would be of annual, small but noticeable increments. you don't buy a stock high and justify it by saying, "But in 2 years I'll get my money back at least!" That's moronic thinking.

The ONLY time it's borderline acceptable to overpay FA's is if you have their Bird Rights and can add other pieces in conjunction. Or if they're the last piece of the puzzle. Or if they're young with high upside. And you can't really overpay a superstar.

at some point the cap is going to level off, and teams will be stuck with horrific contracts. not to mention overpaying role players eats away at your ability to make a big superstar splash.

home33 wrote:bingo in general.

which is why lopez's deal was so dumb and shortsighted. he's currently taking up 1/7 of the salary cap. for an, at best, average starting Center with zero upside, that's terrible value. that's 14+% of the cap. last year it was worse - 18%.

disagree completely about carroll. it was an overpay when they signed him, it's an overpay today. again, if you have to justify the risk-assessment of a contract by saying "Yea, but um, in 2 or 3 years it'll look GREAT!" then you know it's faulty logic. guy was injured this year to boot.

it's like buying stocks. a healthy dividend would be of annual, small but noticeable increments. you don't buy a stock high and justify it by saying, "But in 2 years I'll get my money back at least!" That's moronic thinking.

The ONLY time it's borderline acceptable to overpay FA's is if you have their Bird Rights and can add other pieces in conjunction. Or if they're the last piece of the puzzle. Or if they're young with high upside. And you can't really overpay a superstar.

at some point the cap is going to level off, and teams will be stuck with horrific contracts. not to mention overpaying role players eats away at your ability to make a big superstar splash.

all the contracts given out last summer was with this new cap in mind.

meloshouldgo wrote:Guys we don't need a lot of complicated math - 94MM is roughly 1.343 x 70MM
A 15MM salary under 70MM cap is roughly equal to (15 x 1.343) = 20.14MM under the new cap.

Take any player's current salary and multiply by that number - it's as good an approximation as any, you don't have to do the extra step of figuring out what percent of the cap they equate to.

this is true. i put the bracket breakout so you can see what type of players are in the range and what % of the cap the player should be making. the 1.34% factor just translates to a new number.

mreinman wrote:
Lopez was an above avg center on a very reasonable contract and he was also a very above average person with a year in the triangle. He at least had solid trade value which will only rise.

Rose is not an avg PG as you mentioned either.

your logic is why teams keep treadmilling.

YOU DON'T OVERPAY ROLE PLAYERS. EVER. It's why Golden State is stacked with talent - everyone's on an affordable contract.

Also, he's most DEFINITELY NOT an above average Center. If you like, I can come up with an objective list of at least 15 Centers that are preferable. And another 5 in the same Tier as him, who all make less. He's an average to below average starting Center. He's stable, he's solid, he's decent. He's not 13.5 Million a year good. Not when you just came off essentially the worst record in franchise history.

His trade value will rise starting next season. But if all you value your players for are "trade value" then what's the point in even signing them? So we can be the Sixers?

Lastly, Derrick Rose, by any objective, sane measure (I'm not talking about "advanced stats") - is absolutely an average starting PG when healthy. Probably slightly below average, just like Lopez is at his position. The difference being that when Rose brings his lunch pail to work he can still win you a game almost single-handedly. Look at his splits after December.

Oh, and to further be objective, whereas you're being flat-out disingenuous, I like Lopez as a player, and can't stand Rose. But if you actually understand the impact both guys bring to the table, and they bring completely different elements to the game, then you OBJECTIVELY conclude that a healthy Rose approaches average impact at PG as it stands. Lopez is steady as she goes. Rose is feast or famine. Either way you cut it, Rose gets time on that Cavs team in the Finals, Lopez probably gets benched like Mozgov did.

mreinman wrote:

home33 wrote:bingo in general.

which is why lopez's deal was so dumb and shortsighted. he's currently taking up 1/7 of the salary cap. for an, at best, average starting Center with zero upside, that's terrible value. that's 14+% of the cap. last year it was worse - 18%.

disagree completely about carroll. it was an overpay when they signed him, it's an overpay today. again, if you have to justify the risk-assessment of a contract by saying "Yea, but um, in 2 or 3 years it'll look GREAT!" then you know it's faulty logic. guy was injured this year to boot.

it's like buying stocks. a healthy dividend would be of annual, small but noticeable increments. you don't buy a stock high and justify it by saying, "But in 2 years I'll get my money back at least!" That's moronic thinking.

The ONLY time it's borderline acceptable to overpay FA's is if you have their Bird Rights and can add other pieces in conjunction. Or if they're the last piece of the puzzle. Or if they're young with high upside. And you can't really overpay a superstar.

at some point the cap is going to level off, and teams will be stuck with horrific contracts. not to mention overpaying role players eats away at your ability to make a big superstar splash.

Lopez was an above avg center on a very reasonable contract and he was also a very above average person with a year in the triangle. He at least had solid trade value which will only rise.

Rose is not an avg PG as you mentioned either.

% bracket        2014 ($63 mil)        2015 ($70 mil)       2016 ($94 mil)         2017 ($107 mil)
10-15%           6.3 - 9.5             7 - 10.5             9.4 - 14               10.7 - 16
15-20%           9.5 - 12.6            10.5 - 14            14  - 19               16 - 21
20-25%           12.6 - 15.8           14 - 17.5            19 - 23.4              21 - 26.7
25-30%           15.8 - 19             17.5 - 21            23.4 - 28.2            26.7 - 32

djsunyc wrote:nba gm's knew the rough cap # for 2016 before free agency in 2015. just like they know the cap number in 2017 before this FA period. that factors in b/c a RFA can simply say they'll wait one more year to get a bigger deal if you don't offer it now. agents use the future cap figures as part of negotiations. to think otherwise is a bit foolish.

I didn't say it didn't factor in. Of course it does in some way - the MLE keeps going up, and I'm sure players' agents won't stop reminding front offices of that. But YOU said "all the contracts were given with this new cap in mind", essentially implying they gladly overpaid because it might not look so terrible down the line.

Can you prove your Raptors did that 100% in mind with Carroll? Or are you justifying your team's terrible overpay by insinuating something you can't possibly have 1st hand knowledge of. I'm definitely NOT the one being "foolish" here buddy boy. You are. What you're suggesting is asinine. So you're saying that Toronto likes trolling the fan base by spending 15% this year (and more last) of its cap on a 3&D guy whose career high is 12, 5, and 2 pg, and who played only like 20 games last season?

home33 wrote:

djsunyc wrote:nba gm's knew the rough cap # for 2016 before free agency in 2015. just like they know the cap number in 2017 before this FA period. that factors in b/c a RFA can simply say they'll wait one more year to get a bigger deal if you don't offer it now. agents use the future cap figures as part of negotiations. to think otherwise is a bit foolish.

I didn't say it didn't factor in. Of course it does in some way - the MLE keeps going up, and I'm sure players' agents won't stop reminding front offices of that. But YOU said "all the contracts were given with this new cap in mind", essentially implying they gladly overpaid because it might not look so terrible down the line.

Can you prove your Raptors did that 100% in mind with Carroll? Or are you justifying your team's terrible overpay by insinuating something you can't possibly have 1st hand knowledge of. I'm definitely NOT the one being "foolish" here buddy boy. You are. What you're suggesting is asinine. So you're saying that Toronto likes trolling the fan base by spending 15% this year (and more last) of its cap on a 3&D guy whose career high is 12, 5, and 2 pg, and who played only like 20 games last season?

For someone who just joined the forum you seen to be all up in everyone's neck whenever presented with a differing opinion.

Chill out man.

home33 wrote:

Andrew wrote:
For someone who just joined the forum you seen to be all up in everyone's neck whenever presented with a differing opinion.

Chill out man.

Don't tell me to chill. I didn't call him a name. Didn't insinuate he was "foolish", in fact HE did.

I'm all good with differing opinions, if they make sense, and I could say the same about a few guys going out of their way to disagree with me for no particular reason. Enyspree lost his cool randomly. Briggs condescended without even reading a post I took the time to contribute. And DJ is haphazardly disagreeing with me for the sake of doing it.

Seems like you're giving latitude to "established" posters. So do the rules not apply to everyone equally? I see you calling me out on nonsense but no one else.

I'm not all up in everyone's neck. Could it possibly be that a few people have been just all up in MY neck and I felt like pushing back a little?

If my contributions aren't welcome I can go write for the local paper. It's all good. I've tried to be civil.

damn!! I really liked you