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GRADING THE ROSE TRADE: BULLS VS KNICKS...WHO WON?
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home33
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6/27/2016  8:30 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/27/2016  8:31 PM
Hi. My name is HA Goodman and I'm an author, columnist, and journalist.

Lol, just kidding. I'm a freelance writer with a big portfolio but no platform yet. Call me RG. By the way if anyone can give some advice on web-site developing hit me up.

Anyway I think some of you are grading this trade on its surface and flashy name recognition, but especially for the Knicks it has somewhat long-term implications that haven't really been fleshed out, so I'll do that here.


WHY IT'S A GOOD TRADE FOR NY

Forget Calderon, forget Jerian Grant. Calderon's a 15 mpg backup at this point; Grant was a 23 year old rookie who oftentimes looked lost out there as if he was 19 year old still "figuring things out". On principal alone I don't like giving up on 1st-year players because it sets a bad precedent, but no one should be crying about losing him. 4-year college athletes should be prepared to come into a game and contribute immediately. Yeah, his minutes were inconsistent, yeah he has some room to grow, but his ceiling appears to be that of a rotation player at best. He might very well just end up in the D-League like Tim Hardaway, Jr. since I can't point to any single skillset, aside from general size and versatility, that he has at the NBA level. The Knicks replaced him with a guy in Justin Holiday who at least has figured out a role for himself in the pros (3 & D), not to mention a 2017 2nd Round Pick (the Bulls' own) in a potentially stacked draft class.

This was really about Lopez for Rose. An average starting Center for an average starting PG (if we assume we're getting the 2015-16 version of Derrick.) I can name 15 Centers in the league at least that I'd prefer over Robin and 15 Point Guards minimum I would've taken over Rose last season. The rule of thumb is to never trade big for small, but here's where things get tricky:

1.) We have no way to tell what version of Rose will be donning the Orange & Blue, but Derrick has a far higher upside coming into a contract year and a full offseason of training, not to mention the motivation to reassert his legacy. It's not inconceivable that he becomes a fringe All-Star candidate. Jackson bought relatively low on a 27 year old former MVP.

2.) If he suffers another big setback, you have the option of tanking and/or seeking an Injured Player Exception to sign or trade for someone at or below the Non-Tax Payer MLE.

3.) This is a PG driven league. I'll take the risk on a high-upside, lightning quick, slashing PG that can get to the line over a plodding Center whose best quality is giving you a consistent 10, 7, and 1.5 BPG. That's what Robin has averaged the last FOUR SEASONS. He is what he is. Rose may "rise" above his current stature and return to more than just the status quo.

4.) The deal clears about an additional 14 or so Million in cap space going into the summer of 2017 and beyond.

5.) This opens up roster space for a big-time FA acquisition at Center. Al Horford, maybe? A 1+1 for Gasol? Howard? (just messing, I don't want that schlomo anywhere near my TV screen).

[On a side note, I'm sick of people saying Lopez was on a great contract. Bull. Jackson bid against himself and gave him an offer-sheet well above his market value at the time. Some fans can't even get his yearly price tag right. Guy is making $13.5 Million a year. We essentially gave him a 225% pay increase to do exactly the same thing he did before. NO ONE was offering him anything more than, most likely, $12 Million a year tops. Classic Knicks move - overpay for role players. I can name, minimum, 10 other big men in the league who do exactly what Robin does on MUCH friendlier salaries (players like Gibson, Pau, Asik, Splitter, Larry Sanders before he ghosted, and the list goes on). Hell, SERGE IBAKA and ANDREW BOGUT made less money this past season than did Lopez. His deal was terrible for the first year and bad this year (1/7 of your cap space on a slightly below-average Center? Ew.). It'll look decent next summer (somewhere between 1/7 and 1/8 of the cap), and great the last season due in part to it being expiring. If you have to justify any business arrangement by saying, "Well yeah it SUCKS for 2 years but it'll look better in Year 3", then it's a bad deal. He does nothing, in my opinion, that Timofey Mosgov can't do. In fact, look at his averages his first season with Cleveland; damn near identical to Lopez's usual production. Lopez was the 3rd best player on a 32 win team. C'mon now.]


WHY IT SUCKS FOR THE KNICKS

1.) Don't kid yourselves. Rose is most likely a 1-year rental. His cap hit next summer is $30+ Million in order to retain his Bird Rights. Negotiating a re-up if he plays well would be tricky since he'd automatically eat up half of their cap space. One possible scenario would be renouncing his Bird Rights and simply using their own money to sign him to a short-term, friendly contract. But that would defy the whole point of acquiring him in the first place - controlling his Bird Rights, so if he plays well they can utilize the existing cap space to acquire top-notch talent and then go over the cap to keep Derrick. It's a double-edged sword. You can't have him on the books while you're trying to lure, say, Westbrook and Griffin.

2.) They probably could've gotten better bang for their buck for the combo of Lopez and Grant. Mediocre talent and contract aside, Robin is still solid as a rock and could've netted you, I think, better value in return. And Grant is on a rookie scale and has some room to spread his wings. They probably offered them to Atlanta for Jeff Teague and got disconnected on. If Jackson was hard-pressed on finding a starting caliber PG I think he could've found a wider market and a more long-term solution. Then again, I wanted no part of Eric Bledsoe, for example, or Dragic. I sure as hell didn't want a maxed-out Conley. And dumping the pair for cap space and a mid-20's pick alone wouldn't whet my appetite much. Kind of a lose-lose scenario. Do you keep Robin when this FA class is so stacked with Centers? I get it, but my initial reaction to the trade was "Meh".


OVERALL GRADE

Short-Term: C

(presuming we get at least the 2016 version of Rose). Filled a need at PG, created a lesser one at C.

Long-Term: TBD

Too many angles to this, too many long-term implications. We'll just have to wait and see. Does his brand name alone give NY a seat at the Durant table? Does that extra cap space translate into a superstar signing in 2017? Or is it just 2010 all over again? Do the Knicks re-sign Rose? Do they save some of their cap space this summer and try to poach a solid player during the season? Does Derrick's knee crumble and net the Knicks a top pick?

NEXT TIME ON: GRADING THE ROSE TRADE (How the Bulls made one of the dumbest trades in franchise history)

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EwingsGlass
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6/27/2016  9:45 PM
home33 wrote:Hi. My name is HA Goodman and I'm an author, columnist, and journalist.

Lol, just kidding. I'm a freelance writer with a big portfolio but no platform yet. Call me RG. By the way if anyone can give some advice on web-site developing hit me up.

Anyway I think some of you are grading this trade on its surface and flashy name recognition, but especially for the Knicks it has somewhat long-term implications that haven't really been fleshed out, so I'll do that here.


WHY IT'S A GOOD TRADE FOR NY

Forget Calderon, forget Jerian Grant. Calderon's a 15 mpg backup at this point; Grant was a 23 year old rookie who oftentimes looked lost out there as if he was 19 year old still "figuring things out". On principal alone I don't like giving up on 1st-year players because it sets a bad precedent, but no one should be crying about losing him. 4-year college athletes should be prepared to come into a game and contribute immediately. Yeah, his minutes were inconsistent, yeah he has some room to grow, but his ceiling appears to be that of a rotation player at best. He might very well just end up in the D-League like Tim Hardaway, Jr. since I can't point to any single skillset, aside from general size and versatility, that he has at the NBA level. The Knicks replaced him with a guy in Justin Holiday who at least has figured out a role for himself in the pros (3 & D), not to mention a 2017 2nd Round Pick (the Bulls' own) in a potentially stacked draft class.

This was really about Lopez for Rose. An average starting Center for an average starting PG (if we assume we're getting the 2015-16 version of Derrick.) I can name 15 Centers in the league at least that I'd prefer over Robin and 15 Point Guards minimum I would've taken over Rose last season. The rule of thumb is to never trade big for small, but here's where things get tricky:

1.) We have no way to tell what version of Rose will be donning the Orange & Blue, but Derrick has a far higher upside coming into a contract year and a full offseason of training, not to mention the motivation to reassert his legacy. It's not inconceivable that he becomes a fringe All-Star candidate. Jackson bought relatively low on a 27 year old former MVP.

2.) If he suffers another big setback, you have the option of tanking and/or seeking an Injured Player Exception to sign or trade for someone at or below the Non-Tax Payer MLE.

3.) This is a PG driven league. I'll take the risk on a high-upside, lightning quick, slashing PG that can get to the line over a plodding Center whose best quality is giving you a consistent 10, 7, and 1.5 BPG. That's what Robin has averaged the last FOUR SEASONS. He is what he is. Rose may "rise" above his current stature and return to more than just the status quo.

4.) The deal clears about an additional 14 or so Million in cap space going into the summer of 2017 and beyond.

5.) This opens up roster space for a big-time FA acquisition at Center. Al Horford, maybe? A 1+1 for Gasol? Howard? (just messing, I don't want that schlomo anywhere near my TV screen).

[On a side note, I'm sick of people saying Lopez was on a great contract. Bull. Jackson bid against himself and gave him an offer-sheet well above his market value at the time. Some fans can't even get his yearly price tag right. Guy is making $13.5 Million a year. We essentially gave him a 225% pay increase to do exactly the same thing he did before. NO ONE was offering him anything more than, most likely, $12 Million a year tops. Classic Knicks move - overpay for role players. I can name, minimum, 10 other big men in the league who do exactly what Robin does on MUCH friendlier salaries (players like Gibson, Pau, Asik, Splitter, Larry Sanders before he ghosted, and the list goes on). Hell, SERGE IBAKA and ANDREW BOGUT made less money this past season than did Lopez. His deal was terrible for the first year and bad this year (1/7 of your cap space on a slightly below-average Center? Ew.). It'll look decent next summer (somewhere between 1/7 and 1/8 of the cap), and great the last season due in part to it being expiring. If you have to justify any business arrangement by saying, "Well yeah it SUCKS for 2 years but it'll look better in Year 3", then it's a bad deal. He does nothing, in my opinion, that Timofey Mosgov can't do. In fact, look at his averages his first season with Cleveland; damn near identical to Lopez's usual production. Lopez was the 3rd best player on a 32 win team. C'mon now.]


WHY IT SUCKS FOR THE KNICKS

1.) Don't kid yourselves. Rose is most likely a 1-year rental. His cap hit next summer is $30+ Million in order to retain his Bird Rights. Negotiating a re-up if he plays well would be tricky since he'd automatically eat up half of their cap space. One possible scenario would be renouncing his Bird Rights and simply using their own money to sign him to a short-term, friendly contract. But that would defy the whole point of acquiring him in the first place - controlling his Bird Rights, so if he plays well they can utilize the existing cap space to acquire top-notch talent and then go over the cap to keep Derrick. It's a double-edged sword. You can't have him on the books while you're trying to lure, say, Westbrook and Griffin.

2.) They probably could've gotten better bang for their buck for the combo of Lopez and Grant. Mediocre talent and contract aside, Robin is still solid as a rock and could've netted you, I think, better value in return. And Grant is on a rookie scale and has some room to spread his wings. They probably offered them to Atlanta for Jeff Teague and got disconnected on. If Jackson was hard-pressed on finding a starting caliber PG I think he could've found a wider market and a more long-term solution. Then again, I wanted no part of Eric Bledsoe, for example, or Dragic. I sure as hell didn't want a maxed-out Conley. And dumping the pair for cap space and a mid-20's pick alone wouldn't whet my appetite much. Kind of a lose-lose scenario. Do you keep Robin when this FA class is so stacked with Centers? I get it, but my initial reaction to the trade was "Meh".


OVERALL GRADE

Short-Term: C

(presuming we get at least the 2016 version of Rose). Filled a need at PG, created a lesser one at C.

Long-Term: TBD

Too many angles to this, too many long-term implications. We'll just have to wait and see. Does his brand name alone give NY a seat at the Durant table? Does that extra cap space translate into a superstar signing in 2017? Or is it just 2010 all over again? Do the Knicks re-sign Rose? Do they save some of their cap space this summer and try to poach a solid player during the season? Does Derrick's knee crumble and net the Knicks a top pick?

NEXT TIME ON: GRADING THE ROSE TRADE (How the Bulls made one of the dumbest trades in franchise history)

Nice write up. Strictly on the court analysis. The off the court analysis probably nets the same result.

Best result, it gave a little excitement this offseason after the doldrums of this past season. A little wind in our sails header into July 1.

This is the Randle.
home33
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6/27/2016  9:57 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:Nice write up. Strictly on the court analysis. The off the court analysis probably nets the same result.

Best result, it gave a little excitement this offseason after the doldrums of this past season. A little wind in our sails header into July 1.

Appreciate the appreciation. Not sure what you mean by strictly on the court analysis, unless you mean shoe sales and ticket prices? I went pretty in-depth into the ramifications of the trade both on and off the court.

And agreed - it was a "meh" trade that gave splashy headlines, but still was a relatively low risk, potentially high yield move that pulls eyeballs back to the franchise, even from FA's.

EwingsGlass
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6/27/2016  10:11 PM
home33 wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:Nice write up. Strictly on the court analysis. The off the court analysis probably nets the same result.

Best result, it gave a little excitement this offseason after the doldrums of this past season. A little wind in our sails header into July 1.

Appreciate the appreciation. Not sure what you mean by strictly on the court analysis, unless you mean shoe sales and ticket prices? I went pretty in-depth into the ramifications of the trade both on and off the court.

And agreed - it was a "meh" trade that gave splashy headlines, but still was a relatively low risk, potentially high yield move that pulls eyeballs back to the franchise, even from FA's.

For Rose, there is balancing between his leadership in the locker room and off the court drama pertaining to the civil rape charges. So, while highly regarded as a leader and a good teammate, the distraction of the lawsuit has the potential to overshadow any gains the team makes this year. Recall Kobe's rape case. This media could crucify him.

This is the Randle.
meloshouldgo
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6/27/2016  10:13 PM
I'll tell you who won- his name is Derrick rose.
I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
home33
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6/27/2016  10:32 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
For Rose, there is balancing between his leadership in the locker room and off the court drama pertaining to the civil rape charges. So, while highly regarded as a leader and a good teammate, the distraction of the lawsuit has the potential to overshadow any gains the team makes this year. Recall Kobe's rape case. This media could crucify him.

eh. that's kind of a strawman argument though. that only matters if it affects rose's play. I'm not grading the deal off of back-cover tabloid stuff. for all you know, or we know, those allegations are preposterous. or they're super genuine. either way, there's zero fact-driven, objective analysis to be made off of tabloid stuff.

I'm not worried about the civil case. it's a civil case. not a criminal case, yea? I don't follow these things. And I don't think it's comparable to Kobe at all. Rose thing has been out for some time, no circus. It's been mostly kept quiet.

BRIGGS
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6/27/2016  10:33 PM
How are trades won and lost in 5 offseason days?
RIP Crushalot😞
home33
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6/27/2016  10:39 PM
BRIGGS wrote:How are trades won and lost in 5 offseason days?

if you bothered to actually read the write-up, you'd notice I asserted the complete OPPOSITE of what you just falsely said.

read just the last few sentences. the whole part where I stated "TBD". just in case you don't know what that means - TO BE DETERMINED.

and of course trades can be won or lost "in 5 offseason days". I'm not even sure what the point of your response was. I took the time to lay out the groundwork for the multiple implications this could have going forward, and you crap on it in one sentence. that's adult behavior.

if you traded me 100 bucks for a stick of gum...should I wait a year to call it?

nixluva
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6/27/2016  10:50 PM
The Knicks won mainly because it actually solved a problem the team had, whereas RoLo fills a spot for Chicago but doesn't solve a real problem in terms of how the team wants to play.

Even broke down and inefficient Rose is a plus for the Knicks on the court. The reason being he allows the team to play faster and more aggressively than they did last year. He should help KP in PnR as well. It's just a better overall brand of ball that they should be able to play. I believe that being with Melo and KP will help his game as well.

home33
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6/27/2016  10:55 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/27/2016  10:56 PM
nixluva wrote:The Knicks won mainly because it actually solved a problem the team had, whereas RoLo fills a spot for Chicago but doesn't solve a real problem in terms of how the team wants to play.

Even broke down and inefficient Rose is a plus for the Knicks on the court. The reason being he allows the team to play faster and more aggressively than they did last year. He should help KP in PnR as well. It's just a better overall brand of ball that they should be able to play. I believe that being with Melo and KP will help his game as well.

agreed for the most part. I think what you're trying to get at is that there's impact to be had beyond the box score. rose's presence on offense can warp a defense still. that to me is more valuable than lopez's solid but not sterling defense.

it's not so much that the knicks won the trade, though, as the Bulls made one of the dumbest moves in franchise history. the definition of a treadmill trade. they won't be good enough to contend, or bad enough to tank. AND they added on long-term salary AND gave up what could be semi-valuable asset in the '17 draft.

i'll possibly explain more in a follow-up to this if there's an audience for it (minus Briggs).

BRIGGS
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6/27/2016  10:58 PM
home33 wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:How are trades won and lost in 5 offseason days?

if you bothered to actually read the write-up, you'd notice I asserted the complete OPPOSITE of what you just falsely said.

read just the last few sentences. the whole part where I stated "TBD". just in case you don't know what that means - TO BE DETERMINED.

and of course trades can be won or lost "in 5 offseason days". I'm not even sure what the point of your response was. I took the time to lay out the groundwork for the multiple implications this could have going forward, and you crap on it in one sentence. that's adult behavior.

if you traded me 100 bucks for a stick of gum...should I wait a year to call it?

Then you are over analyzing it. If Rose is healthy and plays like he did 4 years ago--we did very well. If he is hurt in game 6 or plays poorly--we took a step back mitigated by the fact he is an ending contract.

RIP Crushalot😞
home33
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6/27/2016  11:06 PM
BRIGGS wrote:Then you are over analyzing it. If Rose is healthy and plays like he did 4 years ago--we did very well. If he is hurt in game 6 or plays poorly--we took a step back mitigated by the fact he is an ending contract.

over-analyzing it? lol. so basically you don't like fleshed-out pieces. excavation. novels probably aren't your thing, maybe a quick snippet. sorry bud, but I didn't over-analyze anything. I got to the heart of the matter. it's called journalism.

and you're certainly UNDERANALYZING it. if rose plays like he did 4 years ago, which is unlikely as all hell, that's not doing very well, that's doing spectacularly.

but you clearly didn't even read what I wrote. good god. why bother even responding to something you were too lazy to read? I addressed the matter of him getting hurt already. that's not a step back. what that could potentially be is an excuse to tank, which is a win. he gets hurt, you get an IPE, test Melo's market, and tank. there, I dumbed it down for you.

seems like an odd habit for you to reply to things you don't read.

nixluva
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6/28/2016  1:46 AM
home33 wrote:
nixluva wrote:The Knicks won mainly because it actually solved a problem the team had, whereas RoLo fills a spot for Chicago but doesn't solve a real problem in terms of how the team wants to play.

Even broke down and inefficient Rose is a plus for the Knicks on the court. The reason being he allows the team to play faster and more aggressively than they did last year. He should help KP in PnR as well. It's just a better overall brand of ball that they should be able to play. I believe that being with Melo and KP will help his game as well.

agreed for the most part. I think what you're trying to get at is that there's impact to be had beyond the box score. rose's presence on offense can warp a defense still. that to me is more valuable than lopez's solid but not sterling defense.

it's not so much that the knicks won the trade, though, as the Bulls made one of the dumbest moves in franchise history. the definition of a treadmill trade. they won't be good enough to contend, or bad enough to tank. AND they added on long-term salary AND gave up what could be semi-valuable asset in the '17 draft.

i'll possibly explain more in a follow-up to this if there's an audience for it (minus Briggs).


Yes that pretty much sums it up. The Knicks used to do that kind of thing and tho many think this is the same kind of play as adding Marbury and Steve Francis, it's really not that kind of move when you have Melo and KP to form the Triad. Once the Knicks fill out the rest of the roster it will all make so much more sense how it all fits together.

I think a lot of the naysayers who are focused on Rose and his lack of efficiency are missing a lot of the less obvious positive impacts of having threats at different parts of the floor that will stretch a defense. You put Rose and KP in a High PnR and Melo on the other side of the floor it's gonna force defenses to make poor choices. They add Noah who can pass from that Elbow to any spot on the floor with cutters moving around him and really there will be lots of targets for him. This helps make everyone more efficient.

nyknickzingis
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6/28/2016  1:53 AM
Honestly can not say this until we see Rose play and play for an extended period.
On paper based on how Rose played the last few years, this is a fair trade.
If Rose can never play an impact season again, Chicago wins.
If Rose plays a healthy season and gives the Knicks 15/5 on a playoff team, great trade for Knicks, and Bulls undervalued Rose.

All about how Rose plays.

If it were me, and I said this a day or two before this happened, you gotta take that risk if you are Phil. When you already have talent like Kp and Melo, coach like Horn, and your best point is Calderon, gotta do this.

home33
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6/28/2016  2:06 AM
nyknickzingis wrote:Honestly can not say this until we see Rose play and play for an extended period.
On paper based on how Rose played the last few years, this is a fair trade.
If Rose can never play an impact season again, Chicago wins.
If Rose plays a healthy season and gives the Knicks 15/5 on a playoff team, great trade for Knicks, and Bulls undervalued Rose.

All about how Rose plays.

If it were me, and I said this a day or two before this happened, you gotta take that risk if you are Phil. When you already have talent like Kp and Melo, coach like Horn, and your best point is Calderon, gotta do this.

How else are you supposed to grade a trade? Obviously I went by his performance last year?

That's the only logical and fair way to do it. Assuming he plays about 65-70 games, puts up 15 and 6 in 30 minutes with SLIGHTLY improved efficiency, he's an average starting PG. And plugs a hole in the lineup for a year.

home33
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6/28/2016  2:08 AM
nixluva wrote:I think a lot of the naysayers who are focused on Rose and his lack of efficiency are missing a lot of the less obvious positive impacts of having threats at different parts of the floor that will stretch a defense. You put Rose and KP in a High PnR and Melo on the other side of the floor it's gonna force defenses to make poor choices. They add Noah who can pass from that Elbow to any spot on the floor with cutters moving around him and really there will be lots of targets for him. This helps make everyone more efficient.

its not naysayers, it's idiots.

they lack critical thinking and hide behind groupthink. it's ok to call it like it is - they're morons. like that curly haired, soulless celebrity whatshisface that went on TV the other day and kept interrupting people. No, not Stephen A. Ok so it's TWO curly haired morons.

tj23
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6/28/2016  3:17 AM
Overall value Bulls won but im not mad about shedding Robin or Jose. I'd rather go small and spend money on perimeter talent, putting KP at the 5
Nalod
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6/28/2016  7:26 AM
Since title says "who won"?.........
and we have not even gotten to free agency let alone played a game, then any critisism is valid as its premature to even attempt such a "Grade".

Its a well written piece providing a good primer of the trade for the casual knick fan.

mreinman
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6/28/2016  8:47 AM
home33 wrote:
nyknickzingis wrote:Honestly can not say this until we see Rose play and play for an extended period.
On paper based on how Rose played the last few years, this is a fair trade.
If Rose can never play an impact season again, Chicago wins.
If Rose plays a healthy season and gives the Knicks 15/5 on a playoff team, great trade for Knicks, and Bulls undervalued Rose.

All about how Rose plays.

If it were me, and I said this a day or two before this happened, you gotta take that risk if you are Phil. When you already have talent like Kp and Melo, coach like Horn, and your best point is Calderon, gotta do this.

How else are you supposed to grade a trade? Obviously I went by his performance last year?

That's the only logical and fair way to do it. Assuming he plays about 65-70 games, puts up 15 and 6 in 30 minutes with SLIGHTLY improved efficiency, he's an average starting PG. And plugs a hole in the lineup for a year.

if we get last year rose, we can expect a really good lottery pick.

He was not average last year, he was closed to the worst in the league.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
JrZyHuStLa
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6/28/2016  8:51 AM
Very nice post. Good luck with your writing.

Briggs is just mad you didn't post a YouTube highlight video of the guy we should be taking with Chicago's 2nd round pick (who I assure you won't even last more than a season in the league).

GRADING THE ROSE TRADE: BULLS VS KNICKS...WHO WON?

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