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Derek Rose Advanced Stats
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Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  7:26 AM    LAST EDITED: 6/23/2016  7:38 AM 

             WS48   BPM    VORP   Net Off-   Net Prod-  on/off    eFG%   PER
                                 Def Rtg    uction      +/-
Rose         .009   -3.3   -0.7    -14.0     -2.2     -4.9       .448   13.5
League Avg   .100    0.0    2.0?    0.0       0.0      0.0       .502   15.0
Difference   -.91   -3.3   -2.7    -14.0     -2.2     -4.9      -.054   -1.5

Key: Win shares per 48, box plus minus, value over replacement, net offensive-defensive rating, net production, on/off +/-, effective field goal percentage, player efficiency rating.
In all cases, a negative difference is bad. These numbers put him towards the bottom of the league.
AUTOADVERT
yellowboy90
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6/23/2016  8:08 AM
Well he hasn't worked with the great JH yet. Do you see how he turned around Archie Goodwin and Brandon Knight?
mreinman
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6/23/2016  10:21 AM
this thread has no chance
so here is what phil is thinking ....
BigSm00th
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6/23/2016  10:28 AM
isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.
#Knickstaps
crzymdups
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6/23/2016  10:32 AM
Do you have the splits? I'd be curious to see if there was an improvement month to month. Supposedly he played better once he stopped having double vision. His FG% was higher post all-star break.
¿ △ ?
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  11:32 AM
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.
fishmike
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6/23/2016  11:42 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.
extremely high? Seems only a handful of Knick fans feel that way. Media doesn't. Chi fans REALLY don't. That is by far the weak part of your argument.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
BigSm00th
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6/23/2016  11:42 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

#Knickstaps
GustavBahler
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6/23/2016  11:44 AM
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

How many assists post injury?
fishmike
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6/23/2016  11:44 AM
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

go read the Chi boards... they are killing this trade. Only a handful of grumpy Knick fans are saying we gave up tons, etc... The fans who watch Rose every day are blasting this. Context. Perspective.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
BigSm00th
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6/23/2016  11:45 AM
GustavBahler wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

How many assists post injury?

all other numbers stayed more or less the same. assists were 4.8 to 4.6.

shooting % going up 6% and 3pt % going up 13% when you are taking the same amount of shots = something improving health wise. anecdotally, he couldn't see to start the year.

#Knickstaps
GustavBahler
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6/23/2016  11:47 AM
BigSm00th wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

How many assists post injury?

all other numbers stayed more or less the same. assists were 4.8 to 4.6.

shooting % going up 6% and 3pt % going up 13% when you are taking the same amount of shots = something improving health wise. anecdotally, he couldn't see to start the year.

4.6- 4.8 assists is nothing to write home about. I hope Rose comes in looking to make his teammates better, not trying to recapture old glory.
y2zipper
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6/23/2016  11:55 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

I'm not sure Lopez is an extremely high price. He's a slightly above-average center that probably stays that way, and there are a few of those on the free agent market that the Knicks can pursue without breaking the bank if they so choose. His advanced stats are just above the league averages.

As far as games played goes, Rose is trending up. People like to say that he missed most of the games the last four years, but in the last two he's played 51 and 66. 51's not great, but it's trending up the last two years and that might mean he's physically back. Mentally, I have no idea and don't love his personality but it is a one-year, prove it sort of situation so I get it assuming the Knicks don't commit to a bunch of other people long-term.
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  12:01 PM
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.


That's a very fair point and it gives some reason for optimism. I wish I had split advanced stats.
nixluva
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6/23/2016  12:03 PM
These stats are bad on the whole but when you go and look at the details of his shooting it should be easy to raise his efficiency. The shots Rose needs to avoid are pretty clear. If you go to NBA site and look at his shooting stats you can see exactly which types of shots gave him trouble. From what I saw he was great on pull ups, drives but the catch and shoot stand still shots were what lowered his efficiency. I believe Hornacek will be able to help Rose avoid shots he shouldn't be taking.
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  12:03 PM
fishmike wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.

go read the Chi boards... they are killing this trade. Only a handful of grumpy Knick fans are saying we gave up tons, etc... The fans who watch Rose every day are blasting this. Context. Perspective.

Oh I wouldn't be happy to use up $20 mil cap space on RoLo plus Jose if I were a Bulls fan. The Bulls should have gotten better use of that space. (Phil hasn't given me reason to think he will get good use of the new space though.)
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  12:42 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/23/2016  12:44 PM
y2zipper wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

I'm not sure Lopez is an extremely high price. He's a slightly above-average center that probably stays that way, and there are a few of those on the free agent market that the Knicks can pursue without breaking the bank if they so choose. His advanced stats are just above the league averages.

As far as games played goes, Rose is trending up. People like to say that he missed most of the games the last four years, but in the last two he's played 51 and 66. 51's not great, but it's trending up the last two years and that might mean he's physically back. Mentally, I have no idea and don't love his personality but it is a one-year, prove it sort of situation so I get it assuming the Knicks don't commit to a bunch of other people long-term.


Well, I made an intentional generalization when I said this was an extremely high price for "a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player." You can't find many (if any!) examples of more being given up for someone with D League production. I didn't specifically say it was an extremely high price for "Derrick Rose" because I didn't want to get into the hypothetical guessing game that he will be a lot better than his previous numbers.
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  12:44 PM
nixluva wrote:These stats are bad on the whole but when you go and look at the details of his shooting it should be easy to raise his efficiency. The shots Rose needs to avoid are pretty clear. If you go to NBA site and look at his shooting stats you can see exactly which types of shots gave him trouble. From what I saw he was great on pull ups, drives but the catch and shoot stand still shots were what lowered his efficiency. I believe Hornacek will be able to help Rose avoid shots he shouldn't be taking.

Yeah, that's the glass is half full view. The other side is that not many players see improved efficiency when they go from a .510 to a .390 team. It's worth at least acknowledging both sides.
Bonn1997
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6/23/2016  12:45 PM
mreinman wrote:this thread has no chance

I'll do my part to keep it alive!
mreinman
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6/23/2016  1:07 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
BigSm00th wrote:isn't the whole idea that we were able to get him because his value was depressed? we didn't trade hoping to get Derrick Rose of 2015-16, we traded hoping to get some version of the guy that won MVP.

Right, but I don't think people get just how bad he was. On most metrics, he wasn't even a top 300 player. And some here and in the media are saying we got the best player in the deal or we paid a low price. We paid an extremely high price for a guy whose production was at the level of a D league player.

understood. agree with crzy - do you have his splits? he had blurred vision and a broken eye socket for the first 2-3 months. just looking at his pre/post all star game splits:

PRE ASG - 16 ppg (41% FG, 25% 3pt)
Post ASG - 17 ppg (47% FG, 38% 3pt)

those aren't advanced stats but the inference is once he could literally see straight he was drastically better.


That's a very fair point and it gives some reason for optimism. I wish I had split advanced stats.

he is a 30% 3 point shooter for his career.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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