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2015 FA one year later (lesson: calibrate expectations)
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Chandler
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Joined: 11/26/2015
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5/16/2016  11:26 AM
Taking a look back from a year ago, it’s obvious FA is a piece of the puzzle but it’s also clear people need to calibrate expectations, and that the media is mostly clueless. The following is derived from http://www.si.com/nba/2015/nba-free-agency-grades-analysis-signings. I didn’t include them all, but did include all the ones that got A grades and select others. Thought it might be fun to see what people thought of their grades. I cut out their analysis and inserted my two cents, FWIW

Tim Duncan, Spurs; Contract: 2 years, $10.4 million | Grade: A++; [great value signing but man he got old fast….]

LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs; Contract: 4 years, $80 million | Grade: A+; [seemed like the The Deal of the Summer; everyone was envious; Blazers ended up doing just fine, and LA was not the missing piece after all – at least not this year]

LeBron James, Cavaliers; Contract: 2 years, $47 million | Grade: A+; [if there was no cap, what would this guy get?? Value signing]

Anthony Davis, Pelicans; Contract: 5 years, $145 million | Grade: A+; [obviously need to lock the guy up but he too was not a savior]

Kawhi Leonard, Spurs; Contract: 5 years, $95 million | Grade: A+; [super deal]

DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks; Contract: 4 years, $80 million | Grade: A+; [another object of lust; Blazer demonstrated he’s not The Man – just a nice targed for lobs from CP3]

Danny Green, Spurs; Contract: 4 years, $45 million | Grade: A+;[how come SA got everyone sub-market? Because there is a certain (high) class of players who are not chasing every nickel]

Brandan Wright, Grizzlies; Contract: 3 years, $18 million | Grade: A+; [no idea what SI was thinking – I guess it’s a value to throw 18 million away since you’re not throwing away 100??]

David West, Spurs; Contract: 1 year, $1.4 million | Grade: A+;[see above]

Damian Lillard, Blazers; Contract: 5 years, $125 million | Grade: A; [just an A? another value signing. This is another instance where cap actually creates value because some players are worth more than you’re allowed to pay them; these are the guys we need but won’t get through FA until we start to win big; We can get these guys through draft – ala KP when his rookie deal ends]

Marc Gasol, Grizzlies; Contract: 5 years, $110 million | Grade: A; [hope he fully recovers otherwise look out below]

Kevin Love, Cavaliers;Contract: 5 years, $110 million | Grade: A ; [don’t know how I feel about this one]

Draymond Green, Warriors; Contract: 5 years, $85 million | Grade: A; [this guy could’ve maxed but believe it or not he’s happy with 85 million and playing on the best team in the game at the moment]

Greg Monroe, Bucks; Contract: 3 years, $50 million | Grade: A; [Briggs thinks this was the one who got away. Bucks probably wishing the same, An A, for real??]

Dwyane Wade, Heat; Contract: 1 year, $20 million | Grade: A; [don’t know how I feel about this one]

Josh Smith, Clippers; Contract: 1 year, Veteran's minimum | Grade: A; [Clips obviously loved him – not!]

Gerald Green, Heat; Contract: 1 year, Veteran's minimum | Grade: A; [key contributor – at least when they play Knicks – otherwise he seems to have a lot of time thinking about his next hairdo- whiles he’s riding pine]

Omri Casspi, Kings; Contract: 2 years, $6 million | Grade: A; [no comment]

Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors; Contract: 4 years, $64 million | Grade: A-; [how is this an A-; he was a stud for them and their only hope against the Cavs]

Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks; Contract: 4 years, $16 million | Grade: A- [this got an A- but Rolo a B?]

Mike Dunleavy, Bulls; Contract: 3 years, $14.4 million | Grade: A-; [what?]

Jeremy Lin, Hornets; Contract: 2 years, $4.3 million | Grade: B+ [clearly got screwed on this grade; big value for Hornets at a rock bottom price to boot]

Paul Millsap, Hawks; Contract: 3 years, $48 million | Grade: B+; [great player at a great price is B+??]

Brandon Knight, Suns;Contract: 5 years, $70 million | Grade: B+; [no comment – did he even play this year? An important lesson in resilience. For the perennially injured think about the cost/game – or the cost/game at full capacity]

Marcus Thornton, Rockets; Contract: 1 year, veteran minimum | Grade: B+; [we could use someone like him as a 10th or 11th man when we’re desperate for points]

Amir Johnson, Celtics; Contract: 2 years, $24 million | Grade: B+ [but rolo was a B?]

Gary Neal, Wizards; Contract: 1 year, $2.1 million | Grade: B+ [see Thornton]

Jimmy Butler, Bulls; Contract: 5 years, $90 million | Grade: B [a B? c’mon man – sub max for this guy is a steal]

Tobias Harris, Magic; Contract: 4 years, $64 million | Grade: B; [magic loved him so much they got rid of him -- and then the coach still quit]

Robin Lopez, Knicks; Contract: 4 years, $54 million | Grade: B; [this was a much better than B signing when measures by comparables]

Mo Williams, Cavaliers; Contract: 2 years, $4.3 million | Grade: B [great value, why is this a B, but Brandon Wright is an A+?]

Will Barton, Nuggets; Contract: Three years, $11 million | Grade: B [a steal but a B?]

Bismack Biyombo, Raptors; Contract: 2 years, $6 million | Grade: B- [this ended up being a super deal for Raptors]

Al-Farouq Aminu, Blazers; Contract: 4 years, $30 million | Grade: B- [ I thought this was a dumb deal at the time but sort of worked out well for the Blazer – I guess I shouldn’t be surprised; they seem to have an eye for talent – as long as it doesn’t involve centers with the first or second pick in the draft, or shooting guards from NC with the 3d pick]

Brook Lopez, Nets; Contract: 3 years, $60 million | Grade: B- [adjusted for games at full capacity and this is like a 90mill contract]

Wesley Matthews, Mavericks; Contract: 4 years, $70 million | Grade: C+ [buyer’s remorse?]

Arron Afflalo, Knicks; Contract: 2 years, $16 million | Grade: C+ [probably right grade]

Derrick Williams, Knicks; Contract: 2 years, $10 million | Grade: C+ [measured against comps this was a great signing for Knicks]

DeMarre Carroll, Raptors; Contract: 4 years, $60 million | Grade: C [grade is probably close to right; buyers remorse? No way Derozan isn’t looking at this deal and not expecting huge payday from raptors]

Andrea Bargnani, Nets; Contract: 2 years, veteran minimum | Grade: C [it takes a “special” kind of player to warrant a C at the vet minimum; glad Knicks didn't double down on this mistake because it was only short money]

Enes Kanter, Thunder; Contract: 4 years, $70 million | Grade: C- [I have mixed feelings on Kanter but no way is this a C- measured on comps. He and Adams in tandem are a force – will be interesting to see how GS handles that]

Reggie Jackson, Pistons; Contract: 5 years, $80 million | Grade: C- [giving his value to Detriot this grade is silly]

Rajon Rondo, Kings; Contract: 1 year, $10 million | Grade: F [wrong]

(5)(7)
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2015 FA one year later (lesson: calibrate expectations)

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