nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:For example, if we replaced our 4 highest minute backcourt players with guards with average win shares (a stat I know you've relied on), it suggests the team would have 4 more wins. (I'm estimating the amount of increase in season total win shares each player would have if his WS 48 rate were changed to .100.) If you argue the stats are underestimating the overall impact of the backcourt upgrade and you want to even double that total (8 more wins), I could go along with that, but that still only gets us to around .500. The main reason is that our frontcourt was reasonably good but not outstanding.

Bonn, can you share with us how you upgraded the 4 backcourt players and only came up with 4 wins? I don't get the WS correlation.

The total win shares is an estimate of how wins the player added for the season. Galloway was at 3.3, for example, and he had a WS 48 of .077. So, if he played the same minutes but had a WS of .100, as far as I can tell, he would have contributed 4.3 win shares. (I did .100 divided by .077. That comes to 1.30. I then multiplied 1.30 by 3.3.) I did that for each player.
I then acknowledged that improving the backcourt could improve the frontcourt and was willing to double that number and say it might add more like 8 wins.

I look at the data somewhat differently and come up with a different # of (Plus) Wins with an upgrade in the Back-Court. If the Knicks replaced their two Back-Court Starters (Calderon & Aflalo) with an average 2016 Top 30 Ranked player by each position in terms of WS the team would upgrade by 5 Win Shares. If the Knicks replaced their back-ups (based on average WS) with Average NBA Back-ups (Ranked by Position for 20 from 30-60 for WS) then they would add perhaps another Win. Note that the differential for a back-up is much less due to Galloway and Sasha having WS ratings that are in the range (plus or minus) with the average Top 30-60 Ranked NBA PG & SG for 2016. This would mean that replacing the Knicks back-court with average NBA Players would mean about a Plus 6 Win total.

In a real life models (note - taking into account that none of this is perfect as WS will not remain static based on Growth/Decay/Changes for players)

A) If the Knicks sign Conley (WS 5.3) and move Calderon (WS 4) to back-up. Then Move Galloway (WS 3.3) to SG to replace Aflalo (WS 2.7) - this would net a 2.5 WS upgrade (assuming Sasha and Grant remain in current roles). Note that Rhondo (WS 4.6) would be another option at PG which would net the Knicks less Wins based on 2016 WS Ratings. Given that Conely and Rhondo would not be cheap to sign (above $20 Million) - this would not seem like a preferable option for the Knicks in terms of Long Term Salary commitment.

B) If DeRozan (WS 9.9) opts out and the Knicks are able to sign him to a Max type deal. He would replace Aflalo for net 7 Plus wins by itself. If Grant (0.8 WS) can improve a bit to become an average back-up NBA PG (approximate WS 1.7) and the Knicks can slide Galloway over to back-up SG to replace Sasha - this would net a positive 11.6 increase in WS for the Knicks. Certainly this would be a much more preferable option than Option A......also further considering that DeRozan is only 26 years old.

Well, most of that doesn't get us above .500 unless everything you outlined goes perfectly. How did you come up with the 5 win shares in the first paragraph? It's also pretty risky to assume DeRozan's anomalous contract year performance will be repeated next year. Are you adjusting all your numbers for each player's minutes played (and the replacement's minutes played)?

I have a serious doubt about this method of determining the success of any particular addition to the roster. I understand and respect the Win Share statistical method but i'm not totally convinced that the end results of these statistics are as directly applied in the manner you're attempting to use them.

My contention is that you have some very important intangible factors that can play a huge part in how players perform in different environments. So you may have an idea of what a player has done in one given circumstance but that may change drastically in a more conducive environment. Case in Point is Isiah Thomas. Going from Phoenix to Boston. Last year Boston won 40 games and this year they won 48. I think it's pretty clear who was the main reason for the team winning that additional 8 games if you look at the performance of Isiah Thomas. He actually bested his own previous high in Win Shares of 7.7.

My contention is that his role was extremely beneficial to his performance. That environment supported his abilities and he was able to max out his potential. So I think that it's possible that could happen to players we add in NY, depending on what the environment will be next year. As we add talent there is a change in the supportive environment for the players on the team. For example if your a big and you get a better 2 way PG and SG it will have a net positive impact on your game and on down the line it can positively impact the other players. There's a possible exponential improvement beyond just adding the net difference in WS for the players being replaced and the replacements. It may not end up being simple math of Jose with a .100 Win Share being replaced with PG X with a .120 Win Share. It may end up having a larger net impact on each player being made a little better by adding better players.

Season	Age  Tm  Pos G  MP   PER  TS%  3PAr  FTr   ORB%  DRB%  TRB%  AST%  STL%  BLK%  TOV%  USG%  OWS  DWS  WS  WS/48  OBPM  DBPM  BPM  VORP
2011-12	22   SAC PG  65 1656 17.6 .574 .384  .324  3.0   8.4   5.6   25.6  1.6   0.4   13.9  19.8  4.2  0.0  4.3 .124   3.2   -2.7  0.5  1.1
2012-13	23   SAC PG  79 2122 17.5 .574 .386  .345  1.5   7.3   4.4   24.6  1.6   0.1   12.7  23.0  5.2 -0.1  5.0 .114   3.5   -3.7 -0.2  1.0
2013-14	24   SAC PG  72 2497 20.5 .574 .332  .371  2.1   7.5   4.7   32.2  1.9   0.3   14.3  26.3  6.4  1.3  7.7 .149   5.0   -2.1  2.9  3.1
2014-15	25   TOT PG  67	1726 20.6 .579 .434  .437  2.1   7.7   4.9   27.2  1.6	 0.2   13.1  27.8  5.0	1.1  6.1 .169	4.6   -2.8  1.8	 1.6
2014-15	25   PHO PG  46	1181 19.7 .579 .404  .412  2.4   7.8   5.1   23.6  1.9   0.3   12.8  25.8  3.2	0.7  4.0 .162	3.8   -2.3  1.5	 1.0
2014-15	25   BOS PG  21	545  22.3 .579 .488  .481  1.4   7.5   4.4   35.2  1.1   0.0   13.5  32.1  1.8  0.3  2.1 .185	6.4   -3.9  2.5  0.6
2015-16 26   BOS PG  82	2644 21.5 .562 .336  .394  1.8   8.0   4.9   32.7  1.7   0.3   11.9  29.6  7.2  2.5  9.7 .177	5.0   -2.0  3.0  3.3

knicks1248 wrote:

martin wrote:

nixluva wrote:

it's awesome, one guy is left-hand dominant and the other right-hand dominant. Defenses wont' know what hit them

they both need to spend every day of this off season shooting 500 jump shots per day...put that work in son son

Yes indeed. Grant been doing that for a while now. Hopefully both of these dudes go to Lance Thomas school of summer shooting. And maybe Thanansis shows up too.

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:For example, if we replaced our 4 highest minute backcourt players with guards with average win shares (a stat I know you've relied on), it suggests the team would have 4 more wins. (I'm estimating the amount of increase in season total win shares each player would have if his WS 48 rate were changed to .100.) If you argue the stats are underestimating the overall impact of the backcourt upgrade and you want to even double that total (8 more wins), I could go along with that, but that still only gets us to around .500. The main reason is that our frontcourt was reasonably good but not outstanding.

Bonn, can you share with us how you upgraded the 4 backcourt players and only came up with 4 wins? I don't get the WS correlation.

The total win shares is an estimate of how wins the player added for the season. Galloway was at 3.3, for example, and he had a WS 48 of .077. So, if he played the same minutes but had a WS of .100, as far as I can tell, he would have contributed 4.3 win shares. (I did .100 divided by .077. That comes to 1.30. I then multiplied 1.30 by 3.3.) I did that for each player.
I then acknowledged that improving the backcourt could improve the frontcourt and was willing to double that number and say it might add more like 8 wins.

I look at the data somewhat differently and come up with a different # of (Plus) Wins with an upgrade in the Back-Court. If the Knicks replaced their two Back-Court Starters (Calderon & Aflalo) with an average 2016 Top 30 Ranked player by each position in terms of WS the team would upgrade by 5 Win Shares. If the Knicks replaced their back-ups (based on average WS) with Average NBA Back-ups (Ranked by Position for 20 from 30-60 for WS) then they would add perhaps another Win. Note that the differential for a back-up is much less due to Galloway and Sasha having WS ratings that are in the range (plus or minus) with the average Top 30-60 Ranked NBA PG & SG for 2016. This would mean that replacing the Knicks back-court with average NBA Players would mean about a Plus 6 Win total.

In a real life models (note - taking into account that none of this is perfect as WS will not remain static based on Growth/Decay/Changes for players)

A) If the Knicks sign Conley (WS 5.3) and move Calderon (WS 4) to back-up. Then Move Galloway (WS 3.3) to SG to replace Aflalo (WS 2.7) - this would net a 2.5 WS upgrade (assuming Sasha and Grant remain in current roles). Note that Rhondo (WS 4.6) would be another option at PG which would net the Knicks less Wins based on 2016 WS Ratings. Given that Conely and Rhondo would not be cheap to sign (above $20 Million) - this would not seem like a preferable option for the Knicks in terms of Long Term Salary commitment.

B) If DeRozan (WS 9.9) opts out and the Knicks are able to sign him to a Max type deal. He would replace Aflalo for net 7 Plus wins by itself. If Grant (0.8 WS) can improve a bit to become an average back-up NBA PG (approximate WS 1.7) and the Knicks can slide Galloway over to back-up SG to replace Sasha - this would net a positive 11.6 increase in WS for the Knicks. Certainly this would be a much more preferable option than Option A......also further considering that DeRozan is only 26 years old.

Well, most of that doesn't get us above .500 unless everything you outlined goes perfectly. How did you come up with the 5 win shares in the first paragraph? It's also pretty risky to assume DeRozan's anomalous contract year performance will be repeated next year. Are you adjusting all your numbers for each player's minutes played (and the replacement's minutes played)?

I didn't have time to take minutes into account so I only focused on WS for now. The 5 WS calculation is based on the following:

Average WS of a Top 30 PG for 2016 (6.5) minus Calderon WS (4) = 2.5 WS
Average WS of a Top 30 SG for 2016 (5.2) minus Aflalo WS (2.7) = 2.5 WS

Combined = 5 WS

In terms of DeRozan, I don't think his performance this year was anomalous. He was on an upward trajectory starting in 12/13 until he was injured last year. His WS in 2013-14 was 8.8 and he's 26 years old. I would prefer the Knicks be frugal this year in FA signings and target 2017. However if they are targeting Max or Near Max money on one guy this year - Derozan would give the biggest bang for the buck based on performance and need.

As far as next year is concerned, I'm not sure the team will hit .500 - but it would be close based on the following -

- Addition of DeRozan
- An upward trending for KP
- A slight upward trending for Grant
- Level play (ie - equivalent to this year) from Melo, Lopez, Calderon and Galloway (or his replacement)
- Removal of Amundson, Seraphin and Early (all negative WS)
- Re-Signing of Derek Williams (preferable) or Lance Thomas

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

foosballnick wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

martin wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:For example, if we replaced our 4 highest minute backcourt players with guards with average win shares (a stat I know you've relied on), it suggests the team would have 4 more wins. (I'm estimating the amount of increase in season total win shares each player would have if his WS 48 rate were changed to .100.) If you argue the stats are underestimating the overall impact of the backcourt upgrade and you want to even double that total (8 more wins), I could go along with that, but that still only gets us to around .500. The main reason is that our frontcourt was reasonably good but not outstanding.

Bonn, can you share with us how you upgraded the 4 backcourt players and only came up with 4 wins? I don't get the WS correlation.

The total win shares is an estimate of how wins the player added for the season. Galloway was at 3.3, for example, and he had a WS 48 of .077. So, if he played the same minutes but had a WS of .100, as far as I can tell, he would have contributed 4.3 win shares. (I did .100 divided by .077. That comes to 1.30. I then multiplied 1.30 by 3.3.) I did that for each player.
I then acknowledged that improving the backcourt could improve the frontcourt and was willing to double that number and say it might add more like 8 wins.

I look at the data somewhat differently and come up with a different # of (Plus) Wins with an upgrade in the Back-Court. If the Knicks replaced their two Back-Court Starters (Calderon & Aflalo) with an average 2016 Top 30 Ranked player by each position in terms of WS the team would upgrade by 5 Win Shares. If the Knicks replaced their back-ups (based on average WS) with Average NBA Back-ups (Ranked by Position for 20 from 30-60 for WS) then they would add perhaps another Win. Note that the differential for a back-up is much less due to Galloway and Sasha having WS ratings that are in the range (plus or minus) with the average Top 30-60 Ranked NBA PG & SG for 2016. This would mean that replacing the Knicks back-court with average NBA Players would mean about a Plus 6 Win total.

In a real life models (note - taking into account that none of this is perfect as WS will not remain static based on Growth/Decay/Changes for players)

A) If the Knicks sign Conley (WS 5.3) and move Calderon (WS 4) to back-up. Then Move Galloway (WS 3.3) to SG to replace Aflalo (WS 2.7) - this would net a 2.5 WS upgrade (assuming Sasha and Grant remain in current roles). Note that Rhondo (WS 4.6) would be another option at PG which would net the Knicks less Wins based on 2016 WS Ratings. Given that Conely and Rhondo would not be cheap to sign (above $20 Million) - this would not seem like a preferable option for the Knicks in terms of Long Term Salary commitment.

B) If DeRozan (WS 9.9) opts out and the Knicks are able to sign him to a Max type deal. He would replace Aflalo for net 7 Plus wins by itself. If Grant (0.8 WS) can improve a bit to become an average back-up NBA PG (approximate WS 1.7) and the Knicks can slide Galloway over to back-up SG to replace Sasha - this would net a positive 11.6 increase in WS for the Knicks. Certainly this would be a much more preferable option than Option A......also further considering that DeRozan is only 26 years old.

Well, most of that doesn't get us above .500 unless everything you outlined goes perfectly. How did you come up with the 5 win shares in the first paragraph? It's also pretty risky to assume DeRozan's anomalous contract year performance will be repeated next year. Are you adjusting all your numbers for each player's minutes played (and the replacement's minutes played)?

I have a serious doubt about this method of determining the success of any particular addition to the roster. I understand and respect the Win Share statistical method but i'm not totally convinced that the end results of these statistics are as directly applied in the manner you're attempting to use them.

My contention is that you have some very important intangible factors that can play a huge part in how players perform in different environments. So you may have an idea of what a player has done in one given circumstance but that may change drastically in a more conducive environment. Case in Point is Isiah Thomas. Going from Phoenix to Boston. Last year Boston won 40 games and this year they won 48. I think it's pretty clear who was the main reason for the team winning that additional 8 games if you look at the performance of Isiah Thomas. He actually bested his own previous high in Win Shares of 7.7.

My contention is that his role was extremely beneficial to his performance. That environment supported his abilities and he was able to max out his potential. So I think that it's possible that could happen to players we add in NY, depending on what the environment will be next year. As we add talent there is a change in the supportive environment for the players on the team. For example if your a big and you get a better 2 way PG and SG it will have a net positive impact on your game and on down the line it can positively impact the other players. There's a possible exponential improvement beyond just adding the net difference in WS for the players being replaced and the replacements. It may not end up being simple math of Jose with a .100 Win Share being replaced with PG X with a .120 Win Share. It may end up having a larger net impact on each player being made a little better by adding better players.

Season	Age  Tm  Pos G  MP   PER  TS%  3PAr  FTr   ORB%  DRB%  TRB%  AST%  STL%  BLK%  TOV%  USG%  OWS  DWS  WS  WS/48  OBPM  DBPM  BPM  VORP
2011-12	22   SAC PG  65 1656 17.6 .574 .384  .324  3.0   8.4   5.6   25.6  1.6   0.4   13.9  19.8  4.2  0.0  4.3 .124   3.2   -2.7  0.5  1.1
2012-13	23   SAC PG  79 2122 17.5 .574 .386  .345  1.5   7.3   4.4   24.6  1.6   0.1   12.7  23.0  5.2 -0.1  5.0 .114   3.5   -3.7 -0.2  1.0
2013-14	24   SAC PG  72 2497 20.5 .574 .332  .371  2.1   7.5   4.7   32.2  1.9   0.3   14.3  26.3  6.4  1.3  7.7 .149   5.0   -2.1  2.9  3.1
2014-15	25   TOT PG  67	1726 20.6 .579 .434  .437  2.1   7.7   4.9   27.2  1.6	 0.2   13.1  27.8  5.0	1.1  6.1 .169	4.6   -2.8  1.8	 1.6
2014-15	25   PHO PG  46	1181 19.7 .579 .404  .412  2.4   7.8   5.1   23.6  1.9   0.3   12.8  25.8  3.2	0.7  4.0 .162	3.8   -2.3  1.5	 1.0
2014-15	25   BOS PG  21	545  22.3 .579 .488  .481  1.4   7.5   4.4   35.2  1.1   0.0   13.5  32.1  1.8  0.3  2.1 .185	6.4   -3.9  2.5  0.6
2015-16 26   BOS PG  82	2644 21.5 .562 .336  .394  1.8   8.0   4.9   32.7  1.7   0.3   11.9  29.6  7.2  2.5  9.7 .177	5.0   -2.0  3.0  3.3

I think you're taking the statistics more literally than I am (believe it or not!). I already said the impact could be double what the win shares were suggesting. I mention the stats to highlight just how far we are from being a respectable let alone good team. A lot has to go favorably just to get us to .500.

This roster this year would most likely have won more games just with better health this year. So i'm not really basing my assessment of this roster off the final W/L record. I don't like basing the team's ability to improve off the idea that this team starts off from the .390 winning % it finished the season with. I actually believe this team is closer to the .500 level they were at before the injury bug hit them. Being able to sustain and improve on that level of play is dependent on Phil improving not only the quality of the starters but the depth as well.

The team was pretty competitive, even if up and down up until the point when Melo go hurt and then a rash of injuries and fatigue set in.

Training Camp 17-65 25 Your favorite debate show question -- Who will turn it around faster: Knicks or Lakers? -- isn't going away anytime soon. I would argue Phil Jackson got it very right with the No. 4 pick, but Kristaps Porzingis needs time. Just like Carmelo Anthony needs more help than a Robin Lopez-led haul of free agents can lend.

Preseason 0-0 24 Carmelo Anthony's fine preseason has somehow flown under the radar for the most part because of the media focus on
Derek Fisher and the starting role apparently snared by one Kristaps Porzingis. This much seems certain: Opening the season with six straight
games against 2014-15 playoff teams will test them all.

Week 1 2-1 19 The Knicks are actually playing with a bit of a swagger, clearly oblivious to the fact that ESPN's trusty Basketball
Power Index gave them just a 1-percent chance of making the playoffs coming into the season. Yet we'll have to see how long that lasts when
this week's first two foes are the Spurs (home) and Cavs (road).

Week 2 3-4 24 The Knicks, even at a game under .500, must be feeling triumphant to see that Kristaps Porzingis is already starting to
win some skeptics over. He's got a higher PER than Carmelo Anthony through six games (20.1 to 19.8) and looks like New York's most effective rookie
they've drafted since a center named Patrick Ewing in 1985.

Week 3 5-6 23 The Knicks didn't see their fifth W last season until Dec. 12, so we can safely say Kristaps Porzingis and his team are
ahead of schedule. Melo finally has his FG percentage out of the 30s and here's maybe my favorite stat of the season so far: Porzingis and Houston's
Clint Capela are tied for the league lead in putback dunks with six each.

Week 4 8-6 15 The best part about Porzingis Fever? Carmelo Anthony seems to be embracing these sooner-than-expected eruptions from
Kristaps Porzingis ... even if it means Zinger is taking away some of Melo's spotlight in the process. You'll recall that acceptance from Melo
was an issue when we last saw a phenomenon like this called Linsanity.

Week 5 8-10 18 Kristaps Porzingis continues to produce, but the Knicks' week couldn't have gone much worse after the big bump into the
league's top half. The last of their four straight L's came in agonizing fashion, with a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter -- and a real chance
to win without an unexpectedly ill Melo -- spurned against the vulnerable Rockets.

Week 6 10-11 19 Following the Warriors around landed your trusty committee its first trip to our beloved Toronto in eight years. But this
glorious gig giveth AND taketh away. To stay on schedule, we had to leave Brooklyn for Indianapolis on Monday afternoon, which meant missing out
on the glory of the maiden Porzingis-Dirk duel at MSG.

Week 7 11-14 22 After serving up 28 points in his much-hyped duel with Dirk Nowitzki, Kristaps Porzingis hit his first real NBA rough patch
and managed just 17 points on 6-of-25 shooting in the next three games. Carmelo Anthony ultimately saved the Knicks in Portland, but this interaction
at the rim with Damian Lillard couldn't have been fun for Zinger, either.

Week 8 14-14 18 Another week of off-target shooting from Kristaps Porzingis didn't get in the Knicks' way. They took what they got from the
rook -- most notably seven blocked shots against Minnesota -- and stretched their win streak to four anyway thanks in part to the spark they're getting
from Arron Afflalo, who's shooting 55 percent in December.

Week 9 14-18 19 The best thing you can say about the Knicks' Christmas Week, with four games against teams above them in the East, is that
X-rays on Kristaps Porzingis' right index finger were negative Sunday night. Three of those four were roadies, only one (surprisingly in Cleveland)
was close ... and they have six more in a row against .500-or-better clubs.

Week 10 16-19 19 Quite a weekend roller coaster for the increasingly up-and-down Knicks. Friday night in Chicago, their eight-point close accounted
for the meekest fourth quarter in team history in the shot-clock era. Two days later, Atlanta came to Madison Square Garden, held Carmelo Anthony to
11 points and got routed anyway thanks to the Arron Afflalo Show.

Week 11 19-20 16 Go easy on Jose Calderon. He was only the third player all season who even had the chance to make a go-ahead field goal in the
fourth quarter at San Antonio when he missed that corner jumper. Kristaps Porzingis, meanwhile, surely needed that big night against the Spurs; he's scored
20+ points now only twice in his last 17 games after doing so five times in his first 22 games.

Week 12 20-22 18 This, my friends, is a winning basketball team when Carmelo Anthony is on the floor. The Knicks are 20-18, to be exact, with Melo
in uniform after last season's 17-65 misery; they're 0-4 without No. 7 and his career-best-tying 3.8 assists per game. With another 48 points, Melo will
pass Larry Bird for 31th on the all-time scoring list. And Gary Payton, at No. 30, is only 69 points away.

Week 13 22-24 18 Probably not a surprise that the Knicks' longest home win streak since a 10-gamer to close the 2012-13 was brought to a halt by
the Clippers. L.A. has prevailed in last seven meetings between the teams. Carmelo Anthony, meanwhile, has just matched George Gervin and Dominique Wilkins
for the most All-Star Game selections -- nine -- without also making an NBA Finals appearance.

I'm very interested to see this team with not only better starting quality backcourt players but better depth as well as better coaching next year. If Phil can get this done I see another big jump next year.