Nate is this 6-6 ex-lawyer dude who is a basketball nerd and junkie. Being that he was an economics major and used to be a corporate tax lawyer, hes able to evaluate free agency acquisitions from a different point of view. He often uses terms like "poor surplus value" to describe a player (like rondo signing with the kings on a short term contract - if he plays well will LEAVE that team. therefore you don't get the benefits if he DOES play well). By the way, this is one of the benefits of going to vegas summer league...you get to MEET such people, pick their brain and stay in touch

Here are two reasons why players will be overpaid:
- the bottom line is the INCREASE in cap space will be WAY more than what teams will have to spend on. There are penalties if teams DON'T spend enough. so therefore, expect teams to spend ALOT on players who dont deserve it. Its not about how good a player is; for the most part (if theyre decent), its about how much players will ask
- philly factor - teams like philly, portland who have low payrolls will spend ALOT of money - they will drive up the price. a mediocre player like bjennings might deserve 8 mill but if philly WANTS him, they have about 70 mill to spend. they canpay him double to get their man

My expectations
- franchise player = 25 mill and up to max
- all star player = 20-25 mill
- above average starter = 15-20 mill
- average starter/very good bench player = 10-15 mill
- bench player - end of rotation = up to 10 mill

basically add %30 or $5 mill to any contract of the old cap.

Which is why I think it's funny when people are like "Brandon Jennings is not WORTH $12M"

It isn't the WORTH, it's the MARKET. And it will be a seller's market - meaning the players are gonna get PAID this summer.

...and that will probably fuel a lockout in the summer of 2017.

callmened wrote:yep! all this spending on mediocre players will lead to a lockout!

Which is funny - guys here talk about maintaining cap space for Westbrook in 2017. We have ZERO idea what the cap or the landscape will look like after the next lockout.