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By the Numbers: Is Carmelo Anthony Missing Out on 'Superstar Calls'?
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mreinman
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1/8/2016  2:27 PM
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2606013-by-the-numbers-does-carmelo-anthony-get-superstar-calls

One of the most common complaints echoed by many fans of the New York Knicks is that Carmelo Anthony "never gets any calls."

In other words: There is a rather widely held belief among the Knicks faithful that Anthony is not as favored by referees as some of his superstar peers.

So let's put that to the test.

In the space below, we're going to investigate this claim to see whether or not it has any merit, and if it does, why that might be the case.

What We Will (And Won't) Be Using
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
Before we get started, it's important to note that this investigation will not include any videos or screenshots of missed calls, followed by a loud proclamation, "[Insert star player here] would definitely have gotten that call!"

First of all, it's impossible to prove.

Second, it's even more impossible to disprove. Once that thought is in your head, no one will ever be able to convince you otherwise. Plus, it's anecdotal evidence, and that's not the best way to go about this type of investigation.

You can grab any number of videos or screenshots of calls that should have been but weren't made for nearly any star player in the league. It's just as common an issue for Cleveland Cavaliers fans and scribes and LeBron James, for example, and LeBron is often one of the players used in the "insert star player here" exclamation from above.

Refs can't call everything, after all.

Instead, we're going to look at how often the Knicks' franchise player does get calls, relative to his star peers around the league. If he comes up lacking in that area, we're going to search for explanations.

Being that the league's top scorers are the players most often considered stars by fans, that seems like a fair group to use. It's not the only way to define a star in this league, but it is one of the more common ones—especially as it pertains to drawing fouls.

In every statistic cited below, we'll be comparing Anthony's foul-drawing capabilities to that of the other 29 players in the league's top 30 in points per game as of Thursday, Jan. 7.

The Numbers
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
This season, Anthony has drawn an average of 4.6 fouls per game, according to NBA.com's media statistics database, the 18th-highest mark in the group. Regularizing the foul-drawing stat per 36 minutes to account for the different playing time loads each player has shouldered, Carmelo's total moves to 4.8 fouls, which bumps him up one slot to 17th among this group of 30 players.

By way of comparison, DeMarcus Cousins leads the group with 8.3 fouls drawn per game. He's joined in the top five by James Harden (7.3), Anthony Davis (5.7), LeBron James (5.7) and Blake Griffin (5.6).

Cousins also leads with 9.0 fouls drawn per 36 and is joined by Harden (6.9), Griffin (5.8), Russell Westbrook (5.8) and both James and Isaiah Thomas (5.7).

The average for the group is 4.7 fouls per game and 4.9 fouls per 36 minutes, putting Anthony's figures slightly below average. His per-game rate is on par with players like Damian Lillard (4.7) and Kevin Durant (4.5), while his per-36 rate is comparable to those of Stephen Curry (5.0) and Brook Lopez (4.6).

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press
Not all players get the ball as often during games, or hold on to it for quite as long when they do. It stands to reason that the more often you have the ball, the more chances you have to draw a foul. Using the SportVU player tracking data from NBA.com, we can adjust Anthony's fouls drawn for both his number of touches and his time of possession.

Adjusting Anthony's fouls drawn for his number of touches per game, he draws a foul once every 14.1 touches, 13th-best among the group. Adjusting his fouls drawn for how many seconds the ball is actually in his hands during a given game, Anthony draws a foul once every 41.7 seconds of possession, which also ranks 13th.

By way of comparison, the top five in touches per foul drawn is made up of Cousins (7.6), Andrew Wiggins (8.7), Harden (11.4), Jimmy Butler (12.0) and Lopez (12.1). The top five in seconds of possession per foul drawn is Cousins (15.2), Davis (20.0), Wiggins (21.5), Lopez (21.8) and Paul Millsap (21.2).

The average for the group is 16.3 touches per foul drawn and 59.0 seconds of possession per foul drawn, putting Anthony slightly above average in the former category and pretty firmly above average in the latter. His touches per foul drawn are on par with that of James (13.2) and Kawhi Leonard (14.7), while his seconds of possession per foul drawn are comparable to Butler's (41.1) and exactly equal to those of Klay Thompson (41.7).

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Of course, not all fouls are created equal. Fans generally don't care much about non-shooting fouls. They care about the fouls that result in their team's star heading to the free-throw line.

By multiplying Anthony's 5.8 free throws per game (15th among this group) by 0.44 (the common estimator for shooting fouls used by Basketball-Reference.com, among other sites) and dividing that figure by his total number of fouls drawn, we can figure out what percentage of Anthony's fouls drawn have sent him to the line.

Using this calculation, we discover that 55.5 percent of the fouls drawn by Carmelo this season have been shooting fouls. The top five is made up of DeMar DeRozan (68.4 percent), Durant (66.5 percent), Wiggins (62.3 percent), Harden (62.1 percent) and Butler (61.1 percent).

Melo's rate ranks 14th among the group, slightly above the sample average of 54.8 percent and on par with players like Chris Bosh (56.1 percent) and Curry (55.2 percent).

Of course, since free throws are what fans care more about, we can adjust the figures for touches and seconds of possession as well. Here, Anthony ranks 12th (touches per free-throw attempt) and 13th (seconds of possession per free-throw attempt), basically on par with where he ranked in those stats when adjusted for fouls drawn.

This makes sense, given that he's been slightly above-average at turning fouls into free throws.

What Does It All Mean?
Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images
At this point, we can determine that Carmelo has drawn fouls this season at a rate that is basically average for a top scorer. He doesn't rank in the top 10 in any of the measurements above, but he doesn't rank in the bottom 10 in any of them, either. In fact, he ranks between 12th and 18th in every one of them. That's three spots on either side of average.

This naturally invites the question of why he doesn't rank higher. Why isn't he in that top 10?

After running correlations for a few different statistics, there was one that finally popped.

Shot location.

More than anything else, both fouls drawn and free-throw attempts were closely correlated with the percentage of a player's shots that come within five feet of the rim. This makes perfect sense. We know, according to a study done by 82games.com, that 90 percent of fouls and 62 percent of shooting fouls occur in the paint, and that shooting fouls are more likely to occur close to the rim.

Only 26.8 percent of Anthony's shots this season have been attempted within five feet of the rim, according to NBA.com. That figure ranks 21st among the top 30 scorers in the league, on par with Brandon Knight (27.1 percent) and Curry (25.7 percent), and 4.7 percent below the sample average of 31.5 percent of shots.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Anthony doesn't take very many shots near the rim; therefore, the 31-year-old doesn't draw quite as many fouls as other players who spend more time near the basket.

This is hammered home by the fact that the 31-year-old has drawn 0.96 fouls per shot attempt within five feet of the rim, tied for the ninth-highest rate of the 30 players in the sample. The top five comprises George (1.46), Hayward (1.39), Harden (1.20), Bosh (1.14) and Kyle Lowry (1.10). (For what it's worth, LeBron ranks 30th, at 0.61. Maybe he really is the one that gets robbed.)

It's worth nothing that this is the only foul-drawing statistic in which Melo ranks inside the top 10, and it's the most closely correlated to foul-drawing itself. It stands to reason that if Anthony simply attempted to get near the basket more often, he'd wind up drawing more fouls.

Barring that, he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.

Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

Statistics are accurate heading into NBA games on Thursday, Jan. 7.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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Bonn1997
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1/8/2016  6:34 PM
Excellent, thorough analysis.
CrushAlot
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1/8/2016  6:42 PM
9 Dec
devin kharpertian @uuords
Interesting: Melo ranks 3rd among all players in foul rate in isolation & 7th in foul rate in post-ups (min. 50 possessions).
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devin kharpertian @uuords
2/2 But he ranks near the bottom in foul rate in pick-and-roll. (5.1% foul rate PNR, 16.3% foul rate iso, 15,9% foul rate in post-up)
12:46 PM - 9 Dec 2015
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I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
nixluva
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1/8/2016  6:44 PM
Thx for posting this. I always wondered about this. Tho it still seems to me that I see Melo getting Bytch slapped and no calls are made. He's so physical and I think Refs just think well he's initiating the contact so... I actually don't mind Melo scoring on easy shots where he's not taking a pounding. He's not young anymore and we need him healthy, defending, rebounding and setting up teammates. We don't need any shoulder injuries.
newyorknewyork
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1/8/2016  6:49 PM
I would just like for it to be called when his head band is smacked off his head. That's all

On a side note Vv the Pacers in the playoffs, The refs decided to allow it to be a physical game on both sides which favored the Pacers.

https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
yellowboy90
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1/8/2016  6:56 PM
Cool stats. How are open transition rim touches factored in regards to pain touches. I wonder how that would change the numbers or if it would at all.
jrodmc
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1/11/2016  11:41 AM
This is priceless:
...he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.
Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

And maybe you could consider how much more time he would spend on the IR with shoulder and elbow injuries for that 10-15% of calls that he doesn't get? Yes, dopey Melo should keep driving it to the rim so he can get hammered 100% of the time and get fouled 10% less than other stars who get calls for players farting in their direction during a move to the basket.

So once again we have another win-win solution for Melo: Drive it to the basket like an idiot dinosaur playing bully ball, or don't drive it to the basket and be a whiney jump shooting-only ahole not getting calls because he's not driving it to the basket enough to get properly fouled.

WaltLongmire
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1/11/2016  11:53 AM
jrodmc wrote:This is priceless:
...he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.
Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

And maybe you could consider how much more time he would spend on the IR with shoulder and elbow injuries for that 10-15% of calls that he doesn't get? Yes, dopey Melo should keep driving it to the rim so he can get hammered 100% of the time and get fouled 10% less than other stars who get calls for players farting in their direction during a move to the basket.

So once again we have another win-win solution for Melo: Drive it to the basket like an idiot dinosaur playing bully ball, or don't drive it to the basket and be a whiney jump shooting-only ahole not getting calls because he's not driving it to the basket enough to get properly fouled.

He's doing fewer "kamikaze" drives to the basket, recently...at least from what I can see.

Those 1 against 2 or 1 against 3 drives are the ones I used to cringe watching. He seems to be a little quicker off the dribble, and just maybe, the fact he's passing so much gives defenders some doubt about packing it in down low too much when they think he's looking to drive.


I still feel he's hit too much without getting the calls. Wade, Harden, James... some of these guys just have to go through a certain motion and they seemingly get a whistle before their move is even completed.

To his credit, Anthony has never been a flopper, and he's actually suffered because of this, IMO.

EnySpree: Can we agree to agree not to mention Phil Jackson and triangle for the rest of our lives?
jrodmc
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1/11/2016  12:04 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
jrodmc wrote:This is priceless:
...he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.
Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

And maybe you could consider how much more time he would spend on the IR with shoulder and elbow injuries for that 10-15% of calls that he doesn't get? Yes, dopey Melo should keep driving it to the rim so he can get hammered 100% of the time and get fouled 10% less than other stars who get calls for players farting in their direction during a move to the basket.

So once again we have another win-win solution for Melo: Drive it to the basket like an idiot dinosaur playing bully ball, or don't drive it to the basket and be a whiney jump shooting-only ahole not getting calls because he's not driving it to the basket enough to get properly fouled.

He's doing fewer "kamikaze" drives to the basket, recently...at least from what I can see.

Those 1 against 2 or 1 against 3 drives are the ones I used to cringe watching. He seems to be a little quicker off the dribble, and just maybe, the fact he's passing so much gives defenders some doubt about packing it in down low too much when they think he's looking to drive.


I still feel he's hit too much without getting the calls. Wade, Harden, James... some of these guys just have to go through a certain motion and they seemingly get a whistle before their move is even completed.

To his credit, Anthony has never been a flopper, and he's actually suffered because of this, IMO.

+1, exactly
Queue the bumping of the "Melo needs to learn to flop" threads...

mreinman
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1/11/2016  2:40 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
jrodmc wrote:This is priceless:
...he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.
Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

And maybe you could consider how much more time he would spend on the IR with shoulder and elbow injuries for that 10-15% of calls that he doesn't get? Yes, dopey Melo should keep driving it to the rim so he can get hammered 100% of the time and get fouled 10% less than other stars who get calls for players farting in their direction during a move to the basket.

So once again we have another win-win solution for Melo: Drive it to the basket like an idiot dinosaur playing bully ball, or don't drive it to the basket and be a whiney jump shooting-only ahole not getting calls because he's not driving it to the basket enough to get properly fouled.

He's doing fewer "kamikaze" drives to the basket, recently...at least from what I can see.

Those 1 against 2 or 1 against 3 drives are the ones I used to cringe watching. He seems to be a little quicker off the dribble, and just maybe, the fact he's passing so much gives defenders some doubt about packing it in down low too much when they think he's looking to drive.


I still feel he's hit too much without getting the calls. Wade, Harden, James... some of these guys just have to go through a certain motion and they seemingly get a whistle before their move is even completed.

To his credit, Anthony has never been a flopper, and he's actually suffered because of this, IMO.

not maybe, definitely

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Sangfroid
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1/11/2016  3:20 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
jrodmc wrote:This is priceless:
...he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance.
Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.

And maybe you could consider how much more time he would spend on the IR with shoulder and elbow injuries for that 10-15% of calls that he doesn't get? Yes, dopey Melo should keep driving it to the rim so he can get hammered 100% of the time and get fouled 10% less than other stars who get calls for players farting in their direction during a move to the basket.

So once again we have another win-win solution for Melo: Drive it to the basket like an idiot dinosaur playing bully ball, or don't drive it to the basket and be a whiney jump shooting-only ahole not getting calls because he's not driving it to the basket enough to get properly fouled.

He's doing fewer "kamikaze" drives to the basket, recently...at least from what I can see.

Those 1 against 2 or 1 against 3 drives are the ones I used to cringe watching. He seems to be a little quicker off the dribble, and just maybe, the fact he's passing so much gives defenders some doubt about packing it in down low too much when they think he's looking to drive.


I still feel he's hit too much without getting the calls. Wade, Harden, James... some of these guys just have to go through a certain motion and they seemingly get a whistle before their move is even completed.

To his credit, Anthony has never been a flopper, and he's actually suffered because of this, IMO.

When I see The Flopper, The Euro Stepper, and the Cry-Baby benefit from a quick whistle, and my guy goes up two and three times on the same possession and gets no call, or the benefit of the doubt, with his headband askew or his jersey pulled hither and yon, none of these statistics mean a damn. I know, just from seeing it, that my player is getting jobbed. Go back to the SAS game, where KP was body slammed as he moved to the rim for a put back attempt. I can only assume that the officiating is slanted towards those teams with the "better" records.

"We are playing a game. We are playing at not playing a game..."
By the Numbers: Is Carmelo Anthony Missing Out on 'Superstar Calls'?

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