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mreinman
Posts: 37827 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/14/2010 Member: #3189 |
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2606013-by-the-numbers-does-carmelo-anthony-get-superstar-calls
One of the most common complaints echoed by many fans of the New York Knicks is that Carmelo Anthony "never gets any calls." In other words: There is a rather widely held belief among the Knicks faithful that Anthony is not as favored by referees as some of his superstar peers. So let's put that to the test. In the space below, we're going to investigate this claim to see whether or not it has any merit, and if it does, why that might be the case.
What We Will (And Won't) Be Using First of all, it's impossible to prove. Second, it's even more impossible to disprove. Once that thought is in your head, no one will ever be able to convince you otherwise. Plus, it's anecdotal evidence, and that's not the best way to go about this type of investigation. You can grab any number of videos or screenshots of calls that should have been but weren't made for nearly any star player in the league. It's just as common an issue for Cleveland Cavaliers fans and scribes and LeBron James, for example, and LeBron is often one of the players used in the "insert star player here" exclamation from above. Refs can't call everything, after all. Instead, we're going to look at how often the Knicks' franchise player does get calls, relative to his star peers around the league. If he comes up lacking in that area, we're going to search for explanations. Being that the league's top scorers are the players most often considered stars by fans, that seems like a fair group to use. It's not the only way to define a star in this league, but it is one of the more common ones—especially as it pertains to drawing fouls. In every statistic cited below, we'll be comparing Anthony's foul-drawing capabilities to that of the other 29 players in the league's top 30 in points per game as of Thursday, Jan. 7.
The Numbers By way of comparison, DeMarcus Cousins leads the group with 8.3 fouls drawn per game. He's joined in the top five by James Harden (7.3), Anthony Davis (5.7), LeBron James (5.7) and Blake Griffin (5.6). Cousins also leads with 9.0 fouls drawn per 36 and is joined by Harden (6.9), Griffin (5.8), Russell Westbrook (5.8) and both James and Isaiah Thomas (5.7). The average for the group is 4.7 fouls per game and 4.9 fouls per 36 minutes, putting Anthony's figures slightly below average. His per-game rate is on par with players like Damian Lillard (4.7) and Kevin Durant (4.5), while his per-36 rate is comparable to those of Stephen Curry (5.0) and Brook Lopez (4.6). Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press Adjusting Anthony's fouls drawn for his number of touches per game, he draws a foul once every 14.1 touches, 13th-best among the group. Adjusting his fouls drawn for how many seconds the ball is actually in his hands during a given game, Anthony draws a foul once every 41.7 seconds of possession, which also ranks 13th. By way of comparison, the top five in touches per foul drawn is made up of Cousins (7.6), Andrew Wiggins (8.7), Harden (11.4), Jimmy Butler (12.0) and Lopez (12.1). The top five in seconds of possession per foul drawn is Cousins (15.2), Davis (20.0), Wiggins (21.5), Lopez (21.8) and Paul Millsap (21.2). The average for the group is 16.3 touches per foul drawn and 59.0 seconds of possession per foul drawn, putting Anthony slightly above average in the former category and pretty firmly above average in the latter. His touches per foul drawn are on par with that of James (13.2) and Kawhi Leonard (14.7), while his seconds of possession per foul drawn are comparable to Butler's (41.1) and exactly equal to those of Klay Thompson (41.7). Jim McIsaac/Getty Images By multiplying Anthony's 5.8 free throws per game (15th among this group) by 0.44 (the common estimator for shooting fouls used by Basketball-Reference.com, among other sites) and dividing that figure by his total number of fouls drawn, we can figure out what percentage of Anthony's fouls drawn have sent him to the line. Using this calculation, we discover that 55.5 percent of the fouls drawn by Carmelo this season have been shooting fouls. The top five is made up of DeMar DeRozan (68.4 percent), Durant (66.5 percent), Wiggins (62.3 percent), Harden (62.1 percent) and Butler (61.1 percent). Melo's rate ranks 14th among the group, slightly above the sample average of 54.8 percent and on par with players like Chris Bosh (56.1 percent) and Curry (55.2 percent). Of course, since free throws are what fans care more about, we can adjust the figures for touches and seconds of possession as well. Here, Anthony ranks 12th (touches per free-throw attempt) and 13th (seconds of possession per free-throw attempt), basically on par with where he ranked in those stats when adjusted for fouls drawn. This makes sense, given that he's been slightly above-average at turning fouls into free throws.
What Does It All Mean? This naturally invites the question of why he doesn't rank higher. Why isn't he in that top 10? After running correlations for a few different statistics, there was one that finally popped. Shot location. More than anything else, both fouls drawn and free-throw attempts were closely correlated with the percentage of a player's shots that come within five feet of the rim. This makes perfect sense. We know, according to a study done by 82games.com, that 90 percent of fouls and 62 percent of shooting fouls occur in the paint, and that shooting fouls are more likely to occur close to the rim. Only 26.8 percent of Anthony's shots this season have been attempted within five feet of the rim, according to NBA.com. That figure ranks 21st among the top 30 scorers in the league, on par with Brandon Knight (27.1 percent) and Curry (25.7 percent), and 4.7 percent below the sample average of 31.5 percent of shots. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images This is hammered home by the fact that the 31-year-old has drawn 0.96 fouls per shot attempt within five feet of the rim, tied for the ninth-highest rate of the 30 players in the sample. The top five comprises George (1.46), Hayward (1.39), Harden (1.20), Bosh (1.14) and Kyle Lowry (1.10). (For what it's worth, LeBron ranks 30th, at 0.61. Maybe he really is the one that gets robbed.) It's worth nothing that this is the only foul-drawing statistic in which Melo ranks inside the top 10, and it's the most closely correlated to foul-drawing itself. It stands to reason that if Anthony simply attempted to get near the basket more often, he'd wind up drawing more fouls. Barring that, he seems likely to get calls at a merely average rate for a top scoring star. This should at least give Knicks fans the numbers they need to back their collective stance. Just remember how much better the stance would be if the superstar spent more time at the rim at this point in his career.
Statistics are accurate heading into NBA games on Thursday, Jan. 7. so here is what phil is thinking ....
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
Excellent, thorough analysis.
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