Monday Insider


East has no middle class

By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider

On Friday, Insider gave a preliminary breakdown of why the West wasn't going to be a cakewalk for the Lakers next season.

A flood of e-mails followed asking the obvious follow-up question: With the world champions and most dominant player in the NBA now in the East, should we even bother talking about the West anymore?

Yes and no. I think you can make the argument that the two best teams in the NBA next season will reside in the East. The Pistons and the Pacers, barring unforeseen changes to the NBA landscape, have it all. Great defense, great coaches, deep benches and a superstar or two to push things along.

After that, however, the West will likely field the next-best 11 teams in the league depending on where you want to place the Heat. The Spurs, Timberwolves, Kings, Nuggets, Rockets, Mavericks, Jazz, Grizzlies, Lakers, Suns and Hornets are all arguably deeper and more talented than the Heat. After the Heat, I think every team in the West is deeper and more talented than the next-best team in the East (Knicks? Bucks? Nets?).


Even with a dominant Shaq, the Heat probably aren't better than the No. 3 seed in the East.
That's thanks, in part, to a number of top players defecting from the East to the West this summer. Tracy McGrady, Kenyon Martin, Lamar Odom, Jerry Stackhouse, Mehmet Okur, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler and Brian Grant all went west this year. So far, Shaquille O'Neal, Steve Francis, and Antawn Jamison are the only significant players to go east.

After adding a motivated Shaq, especially to the weakest division in the NBA, the Southeast, the Heat should make huge strides next season. However, their shocking lack of depth will be a major issue come playoff time. Right now they're a third seed in the East . . . but a distant third to the Pistons and Pacers because of a lack of depth.

After that, it gets even harder to start picking decent Eastern Conference teams. There is no middle class. The Hornets were always near the top of the East, but they've migrated to the West. The fact that they have just marginal playoff prospects gives you an idea of where the strength of the NBA still lies.

The Cavs, who appeared to be on the verge of the playoffs last season, lost Boozer, setting them back severely. The Raptors are seriously considering dumping their best player, Vince Carter, to a team in the West. The Magic are coming off the worst record in the league and have lost their best player. Adding Francis and first-round pick Dwight Howard will help . . . in two or three years from now. The expansion Bobcats don't have a chance. Neither do the Hawks, who have yet to land one significant free agent, despite a boat load of cash.

Just by process of elimination, we've knocked out half of the East. So who else are contenders to join the Pistons, Pacers and Heat in the playoffs?

The Knicks have a chance to be formidable, especially if they land Erick Dampier. Sources claimed over the weekend that they were very close to bringing him on a deal that would send Nazr Mohammed and Othella Harrington to the Warriors.

The Nets lost Kenyon and appear to be unable to afford to bring in a replacement. Add in the fact that Jason Kidd is coming off knee surgery and they're likely to slip to the fifth or sixth seed.

The Bucks, one of the surprise teams in the East last season, will have a good shot of repeating their success if T.J. Ford is healthy and the Wizards don't match their offer for Etan Thomas.

Four teams will likely be in the scrum for the elusive eighth seed.

The 76ers improved this summer, but not as much as you would've liked. First-round pick Andre Iguodala looks like a contributor, but their inability to land Mark Blount combined with the difficulty of moving Glenn Robinson for anything in return has hurt them. Like always, everything in Philly depends on Allen Iverson's health. The fact that he's playing in the Olympics, the kiss of death for most NBA players, is an ominous sign.

Believe it or not, the Wizards might be contenders this season. They added Antawn Jamison to a talented backcourt. If Kwame Brown takes another step, they'll be good enough to make the playoffs in the East.

We've been wrongly predicting that the Bulls would make the playoffs for two straight seasons. Why should we do it this year? They had a great draft, will sign a solid contributor in free agency (Andres Nocioni) and have a motivated Eddy Curry (it's a contract year) and a healthy Tyson Chandler (it's a contract year).

The Celtics are a mess, but given the state of the East it doesn't immediately knock them out of contention. After watching Al Jefferson in the summer league, I think there's a great shot he starts and becomes a candidate for rookie of the year. The fact that Raef LaFrentz is returning from injury and that they re-signed Mark Blount won't hurt either.


Why is Jeff Bzdelik smiling?
The biggest winner in this whole Kenyon Martin sweepstakes isn't the Nuggets -- it's Jeff Bzdelik. We've been on the Bzdelik death watch since the end of the season. The fact that Nuggets didn't offer him a contract extension -- making him a lame duck head coach -- seemed to seal his fate.



BzdelikBut with Kiki Vandeweghe going for broke and trading for Martin, Bzdelik should be able to breathe a little easier this season. Bzdelik got in trouble with Kiki in company in part because he chose to play veterans over young, up-and-coming players like Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Rodney White. The "win at all cost" attitude ruffled feathers in the front office then.
Now, maybe they should be thanking Bzdelik. It's tough to imagine that Martin would've wanted to come to the Nuggets had they been stuck in the lottery last season. But with the team looking like it was ready to take the next step, Martin was willing to jump on the bandwagon and help it get there.

The move also validates Bzdelik's win-now approach. Now that the Nuggets have spent their cash on Martin, it's doubtful they're going to tell him to bench K-Mart and Nene at the expense of young players like Skita. Instead, Skita, who's been playing great in the summer league, is probably gone. There isn't much room for him on the Nuggets' front line. The team still needs shooting guard. If Skita ends up getting traded, that concerns disappears too.

With one of the most loaded rosters in the league, the pressure will be on Bzdelik to get this team a top-four seed in the West this year. If he comes through . . . he's likely to get that contract extension he's been pining so hard for.


Divac improves Lakers chances
The Lakers solidified their hold on a playoff spot out West over the weekend by convincing Vlade Divac to leave the Kings and turn down more money with the Clippers to play with Kobe.

The Lakers, according to sources, are offering Divac their full $4.9 million mid-level exception. The Kings, on the other hand, were only offering Divac $2.4 million.

Vlade Divac
Center
Sacramento Kings
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
81 9.9 5.7 5.3 .470 .654



With Divac in the middle, the Lakers' chances in the West are greatly enhanced. Even at the age of 36, he was still one of the best centers in the game last year. He still is, without a doubt, the best passing big man in the league. A combo of Divac, Brian Grant and Slave Medvedenko (who they are trying to re-sign) should put the Lakers in a much better position to compete.

The Clippers and Kings, on the other hand, will take a hit. Kings owner Joe Maloof claims the team couldn't afford to re-sign Divac.

"Based on everything we planned earlier in the summer, we had our minds set on a certain (salary-cap) number we didn't want to exceed," Maloof told the Sacramento Bee. "It's $60 mill

[Edited by - raven on 07/20/2004 05:52:21]