http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

ESPN takes down their predictions from the previous season, so you can't see how terrible and wrong they always are.

My own prediction was 35, so I don't think he's that far off, but I'd be very disappointed with only a 10 game increase over last season.

nixluva wrote:It doesn't matter what they say. We've seen this team exceed predictions as well as fail to meet predictions. I feel this team is well constructed with players that fit the system and have good character. The team is hungry to win after losing so much last year. If you go by pure basketball, there's no way you could look at this team and see a losing season. IMO this team will be competitive this year. Most of these predictions are based off of last year and historical statistics of how many more wins a losing team usually gets but that is a flawed way of looking at this team with so much turnover from last year's team.

So while lots of good things can happen, things can also stay status quo. That means Lopze missing 20ish games, AA being a below average starter, Calderon's shot isnt falling and he's terrible on defense, KP and Grant struggling and Melo playing tons of minutes taking 30 shots a game trying to do it all himself. That is a VERY realistic outcome and thats going to get you 25-35 wins so brace yourself. That reality is a strong possibility.

Those bad win total predictions are justified and understandable

nixluva wrote:It doesn't matter what they say. We've seen this team exceed predictions as well as fail to meet predictions. I feel this team is well constructed with players that fit the system and have good character. The team is hungry to win after losing so much last year. If you go by pure basketball, there's no way you could look at this team and see a losing season. IMO this team will be competitive this year. Most of these predictions are based off of last year and historical statistics of how many more wins a losing team usually gets but that is a flawed way of looking at this team with so much turnover from last year's team.

I can't think of a single season when the Knicks exceeded the statistical models. The year we won 54 games the statistical models predicted we'd win 56.

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

nixluva wrote:It doesn't matter what they say. We've seen this team exceed predictions as well as fail to meet predictions. I feel this team is well constructed with players that fit the system and have good character. The team is hungry to win after losing so much last year. If you go by pure basketball, there's no way you could look at this team and see a losing season. IMO this team will be competitive this year. Most of these predictions are based off of last year and historical statistics of how many more wins a losing team usually gets but that is a flawed way of looking at this team with so much turnover from last year's team.

Please... for the Knicks to have a winning season your bankning on lots of players to do things they have never done in the NBA before. Its nice to say they are hungry and in a better position etc, but we have heard that before. Certainly a healthy Melo, Rolo and AA with a bunch of good blue collar guys *can* be a +.500 team, but to assume it will be is folly. I think the Knicks will be 45 win team, but I would not be suprised in the least if they were a 30 win team. Your not getting much from KP this year. Lopez has missed big chunks of seasons in the past. Calderon is a year older and coming off a total dud season. AA has had a couple bad years and is 30. Grant looks great but banking on a rookie PG is also foolish.

So while lots of good things can happen, things can also stay status quo. That means Lopze missing 20ish games, AA being a below average starter, Calderon's shot isnt falling and he's terrible on defense, KP and Grant struggling and Melo playing tons of minutes taking 30 shots a game trying to do it all himself. That is a VERY realistic outcome and thats going to get you 25-35 wins so brace yourself. That reality is a strong possibility.

Those bad win total predictions are justified and understandable

so you believe that they will win 45 or your are just hoping for that as a fan. Do you realize (and you do based on your post) how much has to go right for them to win 45 games? Only knick fans are making these predictions.

I dont think thats an incredible accomplishment. They have size and they will defend every night. They have some chemistry. They also have some blue collar guys willing to do dirty work to make Melo's scoring stand up. I expect them to be better coached. I like the make up of the roster as a whole. I dont expect the NBA prognosticators to be intimate with what Galloway brings to the table or even KP for that matter. Also I have a decades worth of seasons to refer to when looking at MElo-driven teams. Surrounding his scoring with some big bodies and shooters is formula that has proven to win a good amount of regular season games.

Mostly I dont see this as a 17 win team + new parts. More like the 37 win team the year before with upgraded parts. Rolo replaces Tyson. Williams and KOQ replace Amare. Calderon replaces Felton. Galloway replaces JR. Grant and KP are prospects who can help right away. Melo is happy, healthy and motivated to change his image as a non defender non leader... so the cards looks good for a bounce back.

Why 45 wins? Because if you look back at the 54 win season, while there were many quality wins, there were very few to no bad losses. When we played bad teams we took care of business, and I think this team can do that. I expect this squad to be able to beat up consistantly on the lower half of the NBA. Time will tell but thats what I see.

I do try to be partial and there are certainly plenty of things that can go wrong, but generally people are very simple with predictions. What was last year's record and who was added? Based on that alone I understand the 20-30 win total predictions. Its pro-sports. You are your record. Knicks are 17 win team until proven otherwise.

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

nixluva wrote:It doesn't matter what they say. We've seen this team exceed predictions as well as fail to meet predictions. I feel this team is well constructed with players that fit the system and have good character. The team is hungry to win after losing so much last year. If you go by pure basketball, there's no way you could look at this team and see a losing season. IMO this team will be competitive this year. Most of these predictions are based off of last year and historical statistics of how many more wins a losing team usually gets but that is a flawed way of looking at this team with so much turnover from last year's team.

Please... for the Knicks to have a winning season your bankning on lots of players to do things they have never done in the NBA before. Its nice to say they are hungry and in a better position etc, but we have heard that before. Certainly a healthy Melo, Rolo and AA with a bunch of good blue collar guys *can* be a +.500 team, but to assume it will be is folly. I think the Knicks will be 45 win team, but I would not be suprised in the least if they were a 30 win team. Your not getting much from KP this year. Lopez has missed big chunks of seasons in the past. Calderon is a year older and coming off a total dud season. AA has had a couple bad years and is 30. Grant looks great but banking on a rookie PG is also foolish.

So while lots of good things can happen, things can also stay status quo. That means Lopze missing 20ish games, AA being a below average starter, Calderon's shot isnt falling and he's terrible on defense, KP and Grant struggling and Melo playing tons of minutes taking 30 shots a game trying to do it all himself. That is a VERY realistic outcome and thats going to get you 25-35 wins so brace yourself. That reality is a strong possibility.

Those bad win total predictions are justified and understandable

so you believe that they will win 45 or your are just hoping for that as a fan. Do you realize (and you do based on your post) how much has to go right for them to win 45 games? Only knick fans are making these predictions.

No I actually believe they win 45.

I dont think thats an incredible accomplishment. They have size and they will defend every night. They have some chemistry. They also have some blue collar guys willing to do dirty work to make Melo's scoring stand up. I expect them to be better coached. I like the make up of the roster as a whole. I dont expect the NBA prognosticators to be intimate with what Galloway brings to the table or even KP for that matter. Also I have a decades worth of seasons to refer to when looking at MElo-driven teams. Surrounding his scoring with some big bodies and shooters is formula that has proven to win a good amount of regular season games.

Mostly I dont see this as a 17 win team + new parts. More like the 37 win team the year before with upgraded parts. Rolo replaces Tyson. Williams and KOQ replace Amare. Calderon replaces Felton. Galloway replaces JR. Grant and KP are prospects who can help right away. Melo is happy, healthy and motivated to change his image as a non defender non leader... so the cards looks good for a bounce back.

Why 45 wins? Because if you look back at the 54 win season, while there were many quality wins, there were very few to no bad losses. When we played bad teams we took care of business, and I think this team can do that. I expect this squad to be able to beat up consistantly on the lower half of the NBA. Time will tell but thats what I see.

I do try to be partial and there are certainly plenty of things that can go wrong, but generally people are very simple with predictions. What was last year's record and who was added? Based on that alone I understand the 20-30 win total predictions. Its pro-sports. You are your record. Knicks are 17 win team until proven otherwise.

45 wins would mean that we did not have any sustained injuries to key players. If melo does not play close to 70 games, we can't really win 45.

Also, in the 54 win season we had JKidd out there and out of the gate he was phenomenal which got us rolling. He also was a coach on the floor. This season, we are really bad at guard unless proven otherwise. We need (at least) one of our guards to destroy expectations.

We have a 50 win front line (if melo plays 70 games. I worry that our backcourt will kill us.

Me picking 45 wins is assuming we get 70ish games from Lopez and Melo. More Melo but losing Lopez for a month could really hurt.

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

mreinman wrote:

fishmike wrote:

nixluva wrote:It doesn't matter what they say. We've seen this team exceed predictions as well as fail to meet predictions. I feel this team is well constructed with players that fit the system and have good character. The team is hungry to win after losing so much last year. If you go by pure basketball, there's no way you could look at this team and see a losing season. IMO this team will be competitive this year. Most of these predictions are based off of last year and historical statistics of how many more wins a losing team usually gets but that is a flawed way of looking at this team with so much turnover from last year's team.

Please... for the Knicks to have a winning season your bankning on lots of players to do things they have never done in the NBA before. Its nice to say they are hungry and in a better position etc, but we have heard that before. Certainly a healthy Melo, Rolo and AA with a bunch of good blue collar guys *can* be a +.500 team, but to assume it will be is folly. I think the Knicks will be 45 win team, but I would not be suprised in the least if they were a 30 win team. Your not getting much from KP this year. Lopez has missed big chunks of seasons in the past. Calderon is a year older and coming off a total dud season. AA has had a couple bad years and is 30. Grant looks great but banking on a rookie PG is also foolish.

So while lots of good things can happen, things can also stay status quo. That means Lopze missing 20ish games, AA being a below average starter, Calderon's shot isnt falling and he's terrible on defense, KP and Grant struggling and Melo playing tons of minutes taking 30 shots a game trying to do it all himself. That is a VERY realistic outcome and thats going to get you 25-35 wins so brace yourself. That reality is a strong possibility.

Those bad win total predictions are justified and understandable

so you believe that they will win 45 or your are just hoping for that as a fan. Do you realize (and you do based on your post) how much has to go right for them to win 45 games? Only knick fans are making these predictions.

No I actually believe they win 45.

I dont think thats an incredible accomplishment. They have size and they will defend every night. They have some chemistry. They also have some blue collar guys willing to do dirty work to make Melo's scoring stand up. I expect them to be better coached. I like the make up of the roster as a whole. I dont expect the NBA prognosticators to be intimate with what Galloway brings to the table or even KP for that matter. Also I have a decades worth of seasons to refer to when looking at MElo-driven teams. Surrounding his scoring with some big bodies and shooters is formula that has proven to win a good amount of regular season games.

Mostly I dont see this as a 17 win team + new parts. More like the 37 win team the year before with upgraded parts. Rolo replaces Tyson. Williams and KOQ replace Amare. Calderon replaces Felton. Galloway replaces JR. Grant and KP are prospects who can help right away. Melo is happy, healthy and motivated to change his image as a non defender non leader... so the cards looks good for a bounce back.

Why 45 wins? Because if you look back at the 54 win season, while there were many quality wins, there were very few to no bad losses. When we played bad teams we took care of business, and I think this team can do that. I expect this squad to be able to beat up consistantly on the lower half of the NBA. Time will tell but thats what I see.

I do try to be partial and there are certainly plenty of things that can go wrong, but generally people are very simple with predictions. What was last year's record and who was added? Based on that alone I understand the 20-30 win total predictions. Its pro-sports. You are your record. Knicks are 17 win team until proven otherwise.

45 wins would mean that we did not have any sustained injuries to key players. If melo does not play close to 70 games, we can't really win 45.

Also, in the 54 win season we had JKidd out there and out of the gate he was phenomenal which got us rolling. He also was a coach on the floor. This season, we are really bad at guard unless proven otherwise. We need (at least) one of our guards to destroy expectations.

We have a 50 win front line (if melo plays 70 games. I worry that our backcourt will kill us.

oh your 100% right on that. But nobody is predicting OKC's win totals based on Durant/Westbrook getting hurt again. Melo looks great. No linger what so ever, and this was not that severe a surgery. If he had what I had I would say we are hosed.

Me picking 45 wins is assuming we get 70ish games from Lopez and Melo. More Melo but losing Lopez for a month could really hurt.

I am not that far away ... if melo and lopez play 70 games I think that we can possibly push 40. To be 45+, we need a big surprise at guard.

Guard is a concern, but at least with Gallo, Grant and AA we have some guys who can defend there. I actually think Sasha will have some important moments for this team, but in spot duty... much like we saw with guys like Sheed and Kurt and Kidd in the past.

What we really need is shooting. What Kidd really brought was a red hot shooting hand to start the season. Remember he shot like 50% from 3 for the first month. But we finished the season like 16-4 or something nuts and Melo was POM. In fact he was the only guy who won that award aside from Lebron.

Guard is a legit concern.... but we should be better there. Heck we could even be good! Remember Grant is no kid.. he's like 23 and 5 years removed from high school.

WaltLongmire wrote:This is why I rarely make predictions before a season...This is from January 2015:

It's World Series odds times! First, the disclaimer that the good folks at Bovada aren't predicting who will win, but rather where people will put their money. Second, note that these odds reflect the Nationals' new ace, which makes them the new favorites:

Odds to win the 2015 World Series

Washington Nationals - 6/1
Los Angeles Dodgers - 8/1
Boston Red Sox - 12/1
Chicago Cubs - 12/1
Los Angeles Angels - 12/1
St. Louis Cardinals - 12/1
Detroit Tigers - 14/1
Seattle Mariners - 16/1
San Francisco Giants - 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays - 18/1
Baltimore Orioles - 20/1
Chicago White Sox - 20/1
Kansas City Royals - 25/1
New York Yankees - 25/1
San Diego Padres - 25/1
Cleveland Indians - 28/1
Atlanta Braves - 33/1
Miami Marlins - 33/1
New York Mets - 33/1
Pittsburgh Pirates - 33/1
Oakland Athletics - 40/1
Texas Rangers - 40/1
Cincinnati Reds - 50/1
Milwaukee Brewers - 50/1
Houston Astros - 66/1
Tampa Bay Rays - 66/1
Arizona Diamondbacks - 100/1
Colorado Rockies - 100/1
Minnesota Twins - 100/1
Philadelphia Phillies - 100/1

LET'S GO METS!!! LET'S GO METS!!! LET'S GO METS!!!