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D'Alessandro: Beast of the East, at least for now Wednesday, July 14, 2004 http://www.nj.com/columns/ledger/dalessandro/index.ssf?/base/columns-0/1089791413222830.xml BY DAVE D'ALESSANDRO Star-Ledger Staff
We don't intend to make this sound like the caveat emptor warning we issue every off-season, but (always the but) it would be shortsighted to overlook the fact that Miami is sacrificing long-term prosperity for a two-year moonshot.
The trade for Shaquille O'Neal is more than just a risk. No one wants to think about it now, because we're all giddy about the East having a touchstone besides, uh, Rasheed Wallace. And for most of us, there is no debate: "Shaq is Shaq," Washington president Ernie Grunfeld said yesterday. "That's as simple as I can put it."
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If it were only that simple. It's not. It's as complex as Shaq himself. As one Atlantic Division assistant coach said, "The only question is the number of years Shaq has left at this level."
Behold, The Question. It's the unspoken curiosity of all the Eastern Conference opponents today, as they look toward South Florida with worried fascination.
Keep in mind that O'Neal has played exactly 67 games in each of the last three seasons, so right off the bat Miami is starting off 0-15. He's coming off a season in which he had averaged a mortal 21.5 points per game, a career low. And in case you've forgotten, he still cannot hit a foul shot.
Sure, he is still a monster. Yes, any team would have made this deal. But the Orwellian reality is that Pat Riley is tethering his team to a 350-pound buoy, and Miami had better be prepared to sink into Biscayne Bay along with it if Shaq decides that Nestlé Crunch shall remain a dietary staple.
And very soon, Riley will tell the world he will give Shaq a three-year, $100 million extension, which will include a $35 million salary when he's about to turn 37 years old. You think Shaq looked less nimble at 32 than he was at 31? Wait until you see him at 37.
Micky Arison, the Heat owner, might say that an additional $100 million is ample reward for two legitimate runs at a title. Billionaires are entitled to think that way. Actually, most GMs think that way, too, but it's not their money.
"Say you get two good years out of him -- then maybe you have to (give him a contract extension)," Indiana CEO Donnie Walsh said. "And he may still get there (to 37). I don't bet against a guy like him. Everybody in the league is still scared of him."
The Lakers certainly were. It is more than symbolically significant that they sent him as far away from L.A. as possible. If there were a franchise in Hamilton, Bermuda, Shaq would be wearing flowered shorts and riding a scooter right now.
The Nets and Knicks undoubtedly will feel his shadow. But if the Nets return intact, they'll still have a team that runs Shaq ragged in three out of four games, and then find a way to settle their differences at the line if they meet in the postseason. The Knicks will be devoured, but that's usually what happens when a .500 team plays a top-four seed.
But the locals' problems are minor, compared to that of the poor souls who occupy the new Southeast Conference. A week ago, Orlando, Atlanta and Washington -- teams that compiled a robust 74-178 record last season -- figured they could make some real noise is this new ensemble, which includes Miami and the expansion team from Charlotte.
Now, if Shaq actually suits up for events as frivolous as intradivision games, the Heat might go 19-1 in its division. No big whoop; the Heaters would have won the Southeast without O'Neal. They're thinking bigger than that. We just wonder whether the achievement will ever match the expectations, because he is always one sprained toe away from the IL.
Until then, everyone have a sip of the Kool-Aid. "Shaq's going to change the Eastern Conference," Walsh said, "because there is no matchup for the guy."
And how long will the guy be like that?
"Next year he will be," Walsh said. "Next year he's going to be a bear. After that, I just don't know. I'm not around him enough to know. But 32 is not that old."
The implication being: Some big men lose it in a hurry. Shaq's evolution as the most dominant big man in history could always be measured in ego and arrogance. The more he had of each, the more dominant he seemed to get. Maybe there's still room for some growth. Miami had just better hope it isn't in his waistline.
Dave D'Alessandro appears regularly in The Star-Ledger.
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