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RoLo Real Plus Minus
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nixluva
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7/30/2015  4:46 PM
A recent Post by Rookie got me thinking about Real Plus Minus and in particular RoLo. I was thinking about him because he was the highest priced Free Agent we added.
Last year he was down in part I think to missing time due to a broken hand. But the year before he played a full season and was quite impressive.

2014-15 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 DeMarcus Cousins SAC 59 34.1 1.41 4.71 6.12 10.86
2 Zaza Pachulia MIL 73 23.7 1.38 3.42 4.80 7.66
3 Tyson Chandler DAL 75 30.5 1.04 3.54 4.58 9.99
4 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 34.4 2.03 2.43 4.46 12.08
5 Marc Gasol MEM 81 33.2 1.70 1.91 3.61 9.68
6 Kelly Olynyk BOS 64 22.3 1.79 1.71 3.50 5.27
7 Andrew Bogut GS 67 23.6 -1.81 4.97 3.16 5.58
8 Timofey Mozgov CLE/DEN 81 25.3 -0.57 3.43 2.86 6.68
9 Greg Monroe DET 69 31.0 0.37 2.28 2.65 6.49
10 Marcin Gortat WSH 82 29.9 -0.10 2.56 2.46 7.28
--
24 Robin Lopez POR 59 27.8 -1.21 1.74 0.53 2.94

If you went solely on last season it might look like RoLo was a bad investment, but looking at the previous year when he was healthy you get a much different view. It's even more impressive when you take into consideration the fact he played 82 games.

2013-14 Real Plus-Minus - Centers
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 Joakim Noah CHI 80 35.3 0.65 3.92 4.57 11.30
2 Dwight Howard HOU 71 33.7 -0.67 4.91 4.24 9.86
3 Marcin Gortat WSH 81 32.8 0.12 4.00 4.12 10.37
4 Anderson Varejao CLE 65 27.7 0.47 3.59 4.06 6.88
5 Tyson Chandler NY 55 30.2 -0.08 3.75 3.67 5.80
6 Marc Gasol MEM 59 33.4 -1.64 5.23 3.59 6.87
7 DeAndre Jordan LAC 82 35.0 0.19 3.37 3.56 10.85
8 Nikola Pekovic MIN 54 30.8 1.31 2.19 3.50 6.37
9 Chris Bosh MIA 79 32.0 0.14 3.04 3.18 8.41
10 Omer Asik HOU 48 20.2 -2.04 4.87 2.83 3.26
11 Matt Bonner SA 61 11.3 2.16 0.61 2.77 2.16
12 Robin Lopez POR 82 31.8 -0.33 2.76 2.43 7.69

Of course if you don't put any faith in this particular metric it won't mean much but I find it still pretty interesting. There are other things that are underrated about RoLo's game. The fact that he gets most of his rebounds from contested rather than free rebounds. His rim protection and better than advertised PnR and Post game. He won't look like Olajuwon but he can be effective offensively.

AUTOADVERT
knickscity
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7/30/2015  4:57 PM
He was an ok signing, hopefully the team doesnt rely on him to be the defensive anchor like Tyson was. That wears a player down really fast.I like that he gets a good chunk of his rebounds on the offensive glass.
nixluva
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7/30/2015  5:06 PM
knickscity wrote:He was an ok signing, hopefully the team doesnt rely on him to be the defensive anchor like Tyson was. That wears a player down really fast.I like that he gets a good chunk of his rebounds on the offensive glass.

RoLo seems to be a more rugged C than Tyson IMO, he's a natural rim protector. I don't know about him wearing down. I think he's always played hard as that's his game and how he's built to play. He'll play about 30 MPG and I think he'll have good help between O'Quinn, Amundson and a little help D from KP using his length. IMO RoLo's job is to do the dirty work like Oakley and take the pounding so other Knick bigs like KP don't have to.

knickscity
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7/30/2015  5:56 PM
nixluva wrote:
knickscity wrote:He was an ok signing, hopefully the team doesnt rely on him to be the defensive anchor like Tyson was. That wears a player down really fast.I like that he gets a good chunk of his rebounds on the offensive glass.

RoLo seems to be a more rugged C than Tyson IMO, he's a natural rim protector. I don't know about him wearing down. I think he's always played hard as that's his game and how he's built to play. He'll play about 30 MPG and I think he'll have good help between O'Quinn, Amundson and a little help D from KP using his length. IMO RoLo's job is to do the dirty work like Oakley and take the pounding so other Knick bigs like KP don't have to.


The large is the likely cause for such wearing down i mention, if they choose to do that. i do think he'll play hard, wouldnt really question that. My concern is how he will be used and his effectiveness in such. I do believe Phil when he mentioned some time back he wanted a younger Tyson. Robin isnt that guy. He's good but isnt that guy. Oak was a menace against bigs and more than handled his own on the glass. Quite honestly Robin does neither. You'll need a 4 next to him that defends and rebounds, Robin isnt a pick up the slack player.
nixluva
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7/30/2015  6:59 PM
knickscity wrote:
nixluva wrote:
knickscity wrote:He was an ok signing, hopefully the team doesnt rely on him to be the defensive anchor like Tyson was. That wears a player down really fast.I like that he gets a good chunk of his rebounds on the offensive glass.

RoLo seems to be a more rugged C than Tyson IMO, he's a natural rim protector. I don't know about him wearing down. I think he's always played hard as that's his game and how he's built to play. He'll play about 30 MPG and I think he'll have good help between O'Quinn, Amundson and a little help D from KP using his length. IMO RoLo's job is to do the dirty work like Oakley and take the pounding so other Knick bigs like KP don't have to.


The large is the likely cause for such wearing down i mention, if they choose to do that. i do think he'll play hard, wouldnt really question that. My concern is how he will be used and his effectiveness in such. I do believe Phil when he mentioned some time back he wanted a younger Tyson. Robin isnt that guy. He's good but isnt that guy. Oak was a menace against bigs and more than handled his own on the glass. Quite honestly Robin does neither. You'll need a 4 next to him that defends and rebounds, Robin isnt a pick up the slack player.

RoLo is a very good defender. He's good against the PnR. He's not the best rim protector in the league but he's one of the best. Look at his defensive differential near the basket. Last year his numbers were down during a season where he was injured, but the previous season you can see what he's capable of when healthy.

2013-14
Defense Category GP G DFGM DFGA DFG% FREQ FG% Diff%
Less Than 6 Ft 82 81 3.5 7.6 46.2 47.9% 59.4 -13.2
2014-15
Less Than 6 Ft 59 58 3.5 6.4 54.7 48.1% 59.7 -5.1

RoLo boxes out his man very well and it opens up rebounding for the other Knicks if he's not able to get it.

The Blazers were consistently dismissed as true contenders last season because of their mediocre defense, but Robin Lopez did absolutely all he could on that end to change the narrative. Portland finished 16th in the league with a defensive rating of 104.7 (points allowed per 100 possessions), the third worst among playoff teams behind the Dallas Mavericks and the Brooklyn Nets. They were much better, however, with Lopez on the floor (103.7, which would have finished 13th comparatively) than when he was off (106.6, 24th).

Notably, Lopez’s defensive rebounding numbers didn’t quite match up with the way he crashed the boards on the offensive end, with his 4.6 defensive boards per game representing one of the lowest averages among starting centers in the league. This is somewhat understandable, however, when you consider how much time he had to spend defending the rim for Portland instead of getting into good rebounding position.

The 10.3 shots that Lopez faced at the rim per game last season is tied with DeAndre Jordan for the most in the whole NBA. RoLo not only swatted away 1.7 shots per game (eighth in the Association), but he also held a ridiculously low rim protection rate of 42.5%.

Of all players that faced at least 4 shots within five feet of the basket last year, only Bismack Biyombo (38.8%) and Roy Hibbert (41.4%) fared better. Lopez didn’t get a single All-Defensive Team vote last year - Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah and Hibbert were obvious and deserving choices - but perhaps he would've been considered right there with DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond as part of the next tier if an All-Defensive Third Team had been selected.


https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/3021/why-we-should-stop-underrating-robin-lopez
tj23
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8/1/2015  3:43 AM
He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious
yellowboy90
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8/1/2015  4:46 AM    LAST EDITED: 8/1/2015  4:51 AM
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

dk7th
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8/1/2015  8:58 AM
that's great info. i have always referred to them as "bitch rebounds" and david lee comes to mind.
knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
nixluva
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8/1/2015  10:52 AM
RoLo is underrated because he's not the smoothest offensive big and his numbers don't jump out at you but he's a very good C and I think he's gonna be a HUGE factor for this team. HE was the guy who did all the dirty work for LMA and so he's used to that role, but here he should get more touches in the post where he's actually more productive than people give him credit for.

holfresh
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8/1/2015  11:12 AM    LAST EDITED: 8/1/2015  11:22 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??

nixluva
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8/1/2015  11:50 AM
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??


RoLo isn't quite the low motor player that his brother is. Tho both Lopez bros aren't exactly chasing down rebounds. They do a great job of holding off their closest opponent and grabbing the rebound. We're gonna need our other guys to crash the boards as well. This isn't a situation where we can have one guy trying to board.
yellowboy90
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8/1/2015  12:13 PM
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??

It depends, I think every player should be examined individually and that's what all these advance data should be used for. What sold me on Lopez last year was the increase in Aldrige rebounds. Then I looked and saw that the ntire starting 4 around him rebounds increased once he got there. Also, if you look at Ro Lo's off. rebs it indicates that he is a hustle player similar to Thompson or Varied he just plays better defense and occupies space in the lane giving his teammates opportunities for rebounds.

Bonn1997
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8/1/2015  12:33 PM
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??


I'd think the number of contested rebounds the player is grabbing is a much better measure of energy and uncontested rebounds are more about who is randomly deferring to who. With a little extra work, I calculated the number of contested rebounds per 36 for each of these players.

NAME CONTESTED RBS
Drummond 9.063
Kanter 6.5992
Pachulia 6.174
Thompson 6.0696
B Lopez 5.6602
R Lopez 5.5854
Stoudemire 5.4245
Henson 5.2808
Gibson 5.1156
Johnson 4.897
Gortrat 4.347
Boozer 4.2024
Thompson 4.1376
Aldridge 4.0768
Garnett 4.0716
Leonard 3.738
Jefferson 3.6531
Acy 3.4
West 3.3745
Mirotic 3.2296
CrushAlot
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8/1/2015  12:46 PM
Thanks Nix. Great article.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
holfresh
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8/1/2015  12:55 PM    LAST EDITED: 8/1/2015  12:56 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??


I'd think the number of contested rebounds the player is grabbing is a much better measure of energy and uncontested rebounds are more about who is randomly deferring to who. With a little extra work, I calculated the number of contested rebounds per 36 for each of these players.

NAME CONTESTED RBS
Drummond 9.063
Kanter 6.5992
Pachulia 6.174
Thompson 6.0696
B Lopez 5.6602
R Lopez 5.5854
Stoudemire 5.4245
Henson 5.2808
Gibson 5.1156
Johnson 4.897
Gortrat 4.347
Boozer 4.2024
Thompson 4.1376
Aldridge 4.0768
Garnett 4.0716
Leonard 3.738
Jefferson 3.6531
Acy 3.4
West 3.3745
Mirotic 3.2296

My question is why are others more capable of grabbing more uncontested rebounds than you are??..What is that saying about you??

holfresh
Posts: 38679
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8/1/2015  12:58 PM    LAST EDITED: 8/1/2015  1:06 PM
yellowboy90 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??

It depends, I think every player should be examined individually and that's what all these advance data should be used for. What sold me on Lopez last year was the increase in Aldrige rebounds. Then I looked and saw that the ntire starting 4 around him rebounds increased once he got there. Also, if you look at Ro Lo's off. rebs it indicates that he is a hustle player similar to Thompson or Varied he just plays better defense and occupies space in the lane giving his teammates opportunities for rebounds.

There could be many reasons for that..That stat didn't hold true in the playoffs..Aldridge was able to put up good rebounding numbers while Lopez played limited minutes..One game Aldridge had 14 boards while Lopez played 19 mins...Even if you are aiding other player's rebound numbers, if you aren't contributing on the offensive end, at 7 foot you must rebound...

TPercy
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8/1/2015  2:59 PM
nixluva wrote:RoLo is underrated because he's not the smoothest offensive big and his numbers don't jump out at you but he's a very good C and I think he's gonna be a HUGE factor for this team. HE was the guy who did all the dirty work for LMA and so he's used to that role, but here he should get more touches in the post where he's actually more productive than people give him credit for.

Very nice info.

The Future is Bright!
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8/1/2015  3:15 PM
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??

It depends, I think every player should be examined individually and that's what all these advance data should be used for. What sold me on Lopez last year was the increase in Aldrige rebounds. Then I looked and saw that the ntire starting 4 around him rebounds increased once he got there. Also, if you look at Ro Lo's off. rebs it indicates that he is a hustle player similar to Thompson or Varied he just plays better defense and occupies space in the lane giving his teammates opportunities for rebounds.

There could be many reasons for that..That stat didn't hold true in the playoffs..Aldridge was able to put up good rebounding numbers while Lopez played limited minutes..One game Aldridge had 14 boards while Lopez played 19 mins...Even if you are aiding other player's rebound numbers, if you aren't contributing on the offensive end, at 7 foot you must rebound...


RoLo will have a somewhat different role here in NY than he did in Portland. You seem to be really stuck on last season when it was a down year for RoLo due in part to his broken hand. The previous season he did much better. I think it's possible for RoLo to improve on his production slightly on both ends. More Shots in the paint and more touches overall in this system.
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
8/1/2015  3:15 PM
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??


I'd think the number of contested rebounds the player is grabbing is a much better measure of energy and uncontested rebounds are more about who is randomly deferring to who. With a little extra work, I calculated the number of contested rebounds per 36 for each of these players.

NAME CONTESTED RBS
Drummond 9.063
Kanter 6.5992
Pachulia 6.174
Thompson 6.0696
B Lopez 5.6602
R Lopez 5.5854
Stoudemire 5.4245
Henson 5.2808
Gibson 5.1156
Johnson 4.897
Gortrat 4.347
Boozer 4.2024
Thompson 4.1376
Aldridge 4.0768
Garnett 4.0716
Leonard 3.738
Jefferson 3.6531
Acy 3.4
West 3.3745
Mirotic 3.2296

My question is why are others more capable of grabbing more uncontested rebounds than you are??..What is that saying about you??


Does it really matter? These are rebounds that by definition the other team has no chance of getting. And if you're trying to infer whether a player is lazy or has a poor motor, the number of uncontested rebounds he gets is probably the worst way to do it.
holfresh
Posts: 38679
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 1/14/2006
Member: #1081

8/1/2015  4:17 PM    LAST EDITED: 8/1/2015  4:21 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
holfresh wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
tj23 wrote:He better box out well because his defensive rebounding numbers are atrocious

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/06/robin-lopez-and-rebound-value/#fnref-5885-4

Robin Lopez and Rebound Value
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Seth Partnow

Mar 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) celebrates with center Robin Lopez (42) after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the second half at US Airways Center. The Trail Blazers won the game 87-81. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

By some estimation, the Knicks have had a disappointing start to free agency. They whiffed on most of the big names,1 only landing role-player types Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Lopez in particular has raised eyebrows, getting $54 million over 4 years for a center who is best described as “workmanlike.” It sure seems like a lot of money for a guy who averaged 9.6 points and only 6.7 rebounds last season.

Of course, the topline numbers aren’t all there are to Lopez. He’s been a good-to-very-good rim protector http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/ over the two years for which we have data http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/. He’s an efficient scorer largely because he knows his limitations. Especially for a big man, he’s an excellent foul shooter, 77% or above for each of the last three years. Still, for the Knicks those numbers are vaguely underwhelming for a team which needs everything. Is 6.7 rebounds per game really going to cut it for a team that was 26th in defensive rebound rate last season?

It’s actually a trick question. A rebound is not always a rebound http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/01/19/bounding-stealin-examining-value-rebound-types/. As noted earlier this season, the available SportVU data can help us differentiate rebounds by type. A quick first pass indicates “uncontested2” defensive rebounds are “worth” about half as much as other rebounds. In many cases, these are the rebounds where by virtue of the fact that more defensive players than offensive ones are involved in chasing rebounds, the ball is going to bounce to a spot with no offensive player nearby quite frequently. In fact, roughly 57% of all rebounds last season were just this sort of “free” defensive rebound. A player looking to stat pad could get rich simply by gobbling these up at a high rate, perhaps even taking them away from teammates.

The general effect of what might be called rebound stealing (perjoratively) or simply diminishing returns to individual rebounding (more neutrally) has been discernable for much longer than we’ve had SportVU data http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html. But this newer data does allow us to see just who is grabbing more or less than their share of these “free” rebounds. Again mirroring findings by Phil Birnbaum in the above-linked post, rebounding by big man seems to be more impactful than from the wings3 While the overall NBA rate is 57% of rebounds are free defensive boards, among rotation bigs, that number is closer to 52%. In other words just over half of their rebounds are those that someone on their team would probably have ended up with, whereas the other half have been actually fought over.

Which leads us back to Robin Lopez. Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds4:

RebTypes

This isn’t to suggest there was any sort of skullduggery going on in Portland. It could just as easily be that Lopez’s job was more to prevent his assignment (usually the opposition’s best offensive rebounder) from getting to the ball, which allowed Aldridge to use his greater mobility to track the ball down.5 That’s a sensible division of labor. But it does have the effect of making Lopez look like a “worse” rebounder than he probably is, when in actuality he was the guy most often sticking his nose in for the tough rebounds.

Whoever the Knicks run out next to him at power forward this coming year, he won’t have the same voracious appetites as Aldridge. While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest6 rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.7

While the mop-headed, mascot-hating Lopez might not be the big name supporters were hoping for, he provides exactly the sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation. While the team has more work to do to add the “exciting” bits to the team, Lopez is emblematic of this offseason being a good start to a gradual and considered building process.

Assuming DeAndre Jordan is in fact deciding between just the Clippers and the Mavs ↩
Per the SportVU definition of contesting a rebound is being within 3.5 feet, basically arms’s length, of the ball when the rebound is secured. ↩
This is just in terms of a simple question of grabbing more or fewer rebounds, some studies have suggested that rebounds by point guards in particular lead to better ensuing offensive possessions, but that’s another discussion for perhaps another day. ↩
The full list of rotation bigs playing 40 games with 15 minutes per game and at least 8 rebounds per 36 is below ↩
There was probably a little bit of a star system going on since “double-doubles” are still a thing and averaging ten boards a game probably had value to Aldridge over and above it’s value to the team’s success. There are far worse ways for a player to be “selfish” so long as it isn’t so blatant as to cause a rift within the team. ↩
To Minnesota. hi Karl-Anthony! ↩
The Spurs, being the bastion of proper fundamentals they are, allowed the lowest proportion of uncontested offensive rebounds, at only 6.7%. ↩

But wouldn't you want a player who is apt to grab more free rebounds than one who doesn't..This may also point to activity level of the individual..This stat is also telling me Lopez is rebounding on Tristan Thompson's level, minus the free rebounds, which is a tough sell...

Isn't it interesting that the two guys who have the least amount of free rebounds may also have the lowest motor of anyone in that group??


I'd think the number of contested rebounds the player is grabbing is a much better measure of energy and uncontested rebounds are more about who is randomly deferring to who. With a little extra work, I calculated the number of contested rebounds per 36 for each of these players.

NAME CONTESTED RBS
Drummond 9.063
Kanter 6.5992
Pachulia 6.174
Thompson 6.0696
B Lopez 5.6602
R Lopez 5.5854
Stoudemire 5.4245
Henson 5.2808
Gibson 5.1156
Johnson 4.897
Gortrat 4.347
Boozer 4.2024
Thompson 4.1376
Aldridge 4.0768
Garnett 4.0716
Leonard 3.738
Jefferson 3.6531
Acy 3.4
West 3.3745
Mirotic 3.2296

My question is why are others more capable of grabbing more uncontested rebounds than you are??..What is that saying about you??


Does it really matter? These are rebounds that by definition the other team has no chance of getting. And if you're trying to infer whether a player is lazy or has a poor motor, the number of uncontested rebounds he gets is probably the worst way to do it.

Sure it matters...I really don't trust the per 36 min stat..Every minute of a basketball game isn't equal..Your performance in the first 5 mins of a game doesn't equal the performance of the 30th-35th min...There may be a physical reason coaches don't play a certain player those extended minutes..

Contested rebounds is a subjective stat..What you might think is contested, I might not..Don't you find it most curious that it seems a certain player almost completely shuts down at the sight of an uncontested rebound..Maybe I'm looking a little too deep into it..But you never really know a player until he plays for your team..

The great Hubie Brown often says, If you aren't rebounding the basketball and you aren't back on defense, then where are you??

RoLo Real Plus Minus

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