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(Vegas) Early 2015-16 win total projections (Knicks - 31.5)
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mreinman
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7/14/2015  3:22 PM
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1690993

I think that this is about right give or take a few games.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
AUTOADVERT
StarksEwing1
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7/14/2015  3:28 PM
Probably a fair estimate
Bonn1997
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7/14/2015  3:29 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/14/2015  3:32 PM
Interesting. That's a little higher than what I wrote in another thread but it still sounds reasonable
That means giving away a lottery pick around #7
Knixkik
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7/14/2015  3:32 PM
My expectation is we will overachieve on that projection, but it's fair nonetheless.
TheGame
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7/14/2015  4:16 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/14/2015  4:17 PM
Everything would have to go right, but I think the Knicks will get 39 wins and make the playoffs. Our defense should be much better and the team has a years experience with the triangle offense.
Trust the Process
smackeddog
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7/14/2015  4:17 PM
I can entertain myself this season watching the young players develop and the team play hard and defend. Hopefully we don't give up a high lottery pick in the process.
mreinman
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7/14/2015  4:17 PM
TheGame wrote:Everything would have to go right, but I think the Knicks will get 39 wins and make the playoffs.

thats why 39 wins is a bad projection

so here is what phil is thinking ....
crzymdups
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7/14/2015  4:19 PM
Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.
¿ △ ?
mreinman
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7/14/2015  4:21 PM
crzymdups wrote:Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.

vegas lines can't always be right but they are pretty damn good at it.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
VCoug
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7/14/2015  4:25 PM
crzymdups wrote:Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.

Actually, Vegas lines aren't trying to be right; they're trying to set a line where bettors will bet equally on either side.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
gunsnewing
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7/14/2015  4:30 PM
Anywhere from 40-49. We absolutely cannot afford to give up another lottery pick to DJSu's Toronto Craptors of all teams
smackeddog
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7/14/2015  4:31 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:Interesting. That's a little higher than what I wrote in another thread but it still sounds reasonable
That means giving away a lottery pick around #7

Knowing our luck wed jump the odds and end up giving the number 1!
mreinman
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7/14/2015  4:36 PM
VCoug wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.

Actually, Vegas lines aren't trying to be right; they're trying to set a line where bettors will bet equally on either side.

right - and they have to predict so that it will not tilt.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
dk7th
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7/14/2015  4:45 PM
i thought that 30-40 wins is what to expect:

1)the win shares that the free agents + Slim Lanky bring with them (around 10-12 wins) and that they will make the knicks better defensively. that puts the knicks at 27-29 wins without factoring in anthiny.
2)if anthiny is disgruntled and asks to be traded then 30-32 games is a good guess
3)if anthiny remains and tries to be a good employee and actually doesn't destroy the efforts of others, the knicks could win as many as 38 games. 38 games could even get them an 8th seed.

as a preliminary guess i see 32-33 wins. pre-season i will adjust my numbers if necessary.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
Bonn1997
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7/14/2015  4:46 PM
mreinman wrote:
VCoug wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.

Actually, Vegas lines aren't trying to be right; they're trying to set a line where bettors will bet equally on either side.

right - and they have to predict so that it will not tilt.


if anything, they probably are factoring in that there's a large number of overly optimistic people in NYC. Last year they projected 40.5 wins for us and we came up 23.5 short. We better not come up 23.5 short again!
VCoug
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7/14/2015  4:53 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
VCoug wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Vegas tries to be right, they don't want to be wrong... but they are often wrong. Anyway, we'll see.

Actually, Vegas lines aren't trying to be right; they're trying to set a line where bettors will bet equally on either side.

right - and they have to predict so that it will not tilt.


if anything, they probably are factoring in that there's a large number of overly optimistic people in NYC. Last year they projected 40.5 wins for us and we came up 23.5 short. We better not come up 23.5 short again!

Could be. Public teams (famous teams) get better odds because average fans bet on them more often than less well known teams.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
gunsnewing
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7/14/2015  4:53 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/14/2015  4:54 PM
You guys are forgetting that we were a 30win team last year after the terrible start. IMO opinion 32 wins is very conservative.


You know what? Maybe I will put money on Vegas for over 40 wins and I will be one of the few winners. It would be so worth it
Bonn1997
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7/14/2015  4:55 PM
gunsnewing wrote:You guys are forgetting that we were a 30win team last year after the terrible start. IMO opinion 32 wins is very conservative.


You know what? Maybe I will put money on Vegas for over 40 wins and I will be one of the few winners


We're also forgetting that we were the best team in the league if you don't count any of the losses.
The line between you and Nixluva is blurring!
VCoug
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7/14/2015  5:04 PM
gunsnewing wrote:You guys are forgetting that we were a 30win team last year after the terrible start. IMO opinion 32 wins is very conservative.


You know what? Maybe I will put money on Vegas for over 40 wins and I will be one of the few winners. It would be so worth it

At what point were we a 30 win team last year? We went 12-29 in the 2nd half last year which is a 24 win pace. We went 5-16 in the last quarter of the season which is a 19 win pace.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
nixluva
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7/14/2015  5:13 PM
Meh! It's an understandable prediction based on the uncertainty of the roster. It's a new team and there's no track record to go on with this group. I feel confident that we will see a major improvement over last year. Just how much is impossible to predict because we have so many young players in the mix. I do like the FA additions. They are mostly hard working guys who will defend and rebound. We lacked that aspect as a team last year. I think adding in that this is the 2nd season for Fish and the coaches as well as some of the returning players, will really help things.

What really killed us was our poor guard play. I think this years team has a much better mix of guard talent to start the year. It's a smarter group with more skills and BB IQ. That should really help this year. We still have some final roster spots to fill as well.


Lead Guard		Scoring Guard		Small Forward		Power Forward		Center
Jerian Grant		Arron Afflalo		Kristaps Porzingis	Carmelo Anthony		Robin Lopez
Jose Calderon		Ricky Ledo?		Cleanthony Early	Derrick Williams	Kyle O’Quinn
Langston Galloway	??		        Lance Thomas		Lou Amundson            ??
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(Vegas) Early 2015-16 win total projections (Knicks - 31.5)
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