Fancy Stats

Surprise! The Knicks may actually know what they’re doing

By Neil Greenberg July 7 

New York Knicks new team president Phil Jackson (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

The New York Knicks are one of the league’s most storied franchises. They have two championship banners (1970 and 1973) and 42 playoff appearances, including a 14-year run from 1988 to 2001 where they were a mainstay in the postseason.

And then things started to go south.

Isiah Thomas and Mike D’Antoni struggled to get the most from their teams from behind the bench. Free agency moves left more questions than answers (Eddie Curry, Steve Francis and Antonio McDyess highlight some of the worst trades in franchise history) and the obsession with trading away first-round picks is only subdued by the Stepien rule, which prevents teams from trading future picks from consecutive years.

[Why the Lakers won’t be much better next season]

The futility, however, hasn’t stopped the optimism.

It wasn’t long ago that Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony both thought the Knicks would make the playoffs last season. New York, of course, went 17-65 and posted the worst adjusted margin of victory (minus-9.5) in the team’s history, showing they are in need of something other than a quick fix.

But give credit to the organization for building a basketball roster that is much better than they previously had.

[DeAndre Jordan, Dwyane Wade signings will reshape NBA standings]

Rookie Jerian Grant is an improvement over Tim Hardaway Jr.

Hardaway was a volume shooter (10.2 per game) who had trouble making baskets (47.4 effective field goal percentage).

Tim Hardaway, Jr. shot chart, 2014-15 regular season
Tim Hardaway, Jr. shot chart, 2014-15 regular season

His best skills were spotting up opponents (1.08 points per play) or running in transition (1.12 points per play) but he struggled handling the ball on the pick and roll, turning it over 19 percent of the time while scoring at least one point on just 30.5 percent of all pick-and-roll plays.

Here is one where Hardaway (green arrow) tries to make the pass to Jason Smith (yellow arrow), only for it to be picked off by Orlando’s Tobias Harris (red arrow).

Grant, on the other hand, emerged as a consensus first-team all-American this past season, leading Notre Dame to the ACC championship and the Elite Eight while posting 16.5 points, 6.7 assists and three rebounds per game. He shot 47.8 percent from the field and showed an ability to stretch a defense beyond the three-point line.

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 5.44.29 PM

Unlike Hardaway, Grant was adept at running the pick and roll, which accounted for 27.7 percent of his possessions last season in which he scored 0.83 points per play with a 19.8 turnover percentage. Among Division I players passing the ball to the screen setter at least 50 times, only Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos (1.46) generated more points per play than Grant (1.40).

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Grant also scored at least a point in transition 59.5 percent of the time.

Signing Robin Lopez

Lopez has a top-10 offensive rebounding percentage (12.7 percent) for the second consecutive season. He is also one of the league’s better pick-and-roll screeners, scoring at least one point 58.3 percent of the time and 1.17 points per play, putting him in the 86th percentile. His post-up ability is also elite, generating 1.06 points per play with his back to the basket

The 7-footer held opponents to a lower percentage at the rim against him (47.1 percent) than either DeAndre Jordan (48.5 percent) or Marc Gasol (49.5 percent), and saved his team 8.5 points per 36 minutes, the sixth most in the league.

According to Seth Partnow, Lopez provides the exact sort of solidity both on the boards and defensively needed for a foundation:

Among the set of 100 or so regular rotation bigs in the NBA last year, the lowest proportion of Lopez’s rebounds were these uncontested defensive types. Conversely his now ex-teammate LaMarcus Aldridge was among the leaders in highest proportion of uncontested defensive rebounds.

While this puts more of an onus on Lopez to actually collect more of these rebounds, there is very little reason to suspect he won’t be able to expand into that void. Perhaps more importantly, Lopez’s willingness to battle will be vital to a team who gave up the 2nd highest rate uncontested offensive rebounds off of opponents’ misses last season, with 9.5% of all forced misses being recovered by the offense with no Knick nearby.

Plus, adding Lopez helps move Anthony to the stretch-four, where he can be better defensively by not having to chase down quicker players on the wing.

Arron Afflalo will provide secondary scoring

The Knicks signed Afflalo to a two-year, $16 million contract, giving them a shooter who can create his own shot while providing solid defense.

It isn’t ideal, but Afflalo is a strong midrange shooter, hitting 46.1 percent of those shots last season. That will work in New York, who ranked fourth in the NBA in field goal attempts per game between 15-19 feet last season.

Arron Afflalo shot chart, 2014-15 regular season
Arron Afflalo shot chart, 2014-15 regular season

He also has chemistry with Anthony from their time together in Denver. They shared 2,636 minutes between 2009-10 and 2010-11 and were four net points per 100 possessions better than their opponents.

Defensively he allowed 0.84 points per possession with Portland and 0.81 points per possession during his time with Denver last season.

It doesn’t mean the Knicks are fixed, but a solid rebuilding process is underway.

Per play stats from Synergy Sports

Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog and prefers to be called a geek rather than a nerd

We haven't been running it long enough to really have our players master all the options. In time they'll get the hang of all the nuances. There is a lot more to offense than PnR and hopefully this team will master all the many options.

PhilinLA wrote:Some of the Triangle is just offset pick and rolls, from the corners instead of from the top of the circle. You're either picking and rolling or picking and cutting on every play.

Yeah, sad part is, instead of of going to the rim, the person pulls up for a 15-20 footer. Sad.

nixluva wrote:For the umpteenth time PICK and ROLL IS PART OF THE TRIANGLE! Just because it's not the primary play doesn't mean it's not used. The thing is that they have a lot of other ways to get scoring at the basket. The Triangle has enough variation to make up for a lower number of PnR plays.

We haven't been running it long enough to really have our players master all the options. In time they'll get the hang of all the nuances. There is a lot more to offense than PnR and hopefully this team will master all the many options.

GustavBahler wrote:

TPercy wrote:

PhilinLA wrote:Some of the Triangle is just offset pick and rolls, from the corners instead of from the top of the circle. You're either picking and rolling or picking and cutting on every play.

Yeah, sad part is, instead of of going to the rim, the person pulls up for a 15-20 footer. Sad.

Fisher said that he wasnt going to be married to the Triangle next season. I dont mind it as an ingredient in the offense, just dont want it to be the only ingredient.

If Fisher is going to run the best options in the triangle that gives us open layups and good opportunities for a 3 then I am fine with that.

nixluva wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

TPercy wrote:

PhilinLA wrote:Some of the Triangle is just offset pick and rolls, from the corners instead of from the top of the circle. You're either picking and rolling or picking and cutting on every play.

Yeah, sad part is, instead of of going to the rim, the person pulls up for a 15-20 footer. Sad.

Fisher said that he wasnt going to be married to the Triangle next season. I dont mind it as an ingredient in the offense, just dont want it to be the only ingredient.

You're talking about an entire offense and not just a play. PnR isn't an offense. There's a heck of a lot more to the Triangle that people aren't really respecting. It was just 2010-11 where Phil's last Lakers team was just as efficient at this year's GS Warriors.

2014-15 Warriors - Off Rtg: 111.6 (2nd of 30)
2010-11 Lakers   - Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30)

There's NOTHING wrong with the Triangle. We needed an upgrade in talent and talent that fit what we do. It may not all happen this year but eventually the team will master running the system. The Triangle was really the least of the team's problems.

The offense isn't just about tons of mid range shots. That's one of the problems of judging the offense off last season. It was more about the flaws of the players. Shved came in and understood what to do and had the ability to get to the basket and run PnR in the offense. It's all there but you have to have players with the talent and inclination to get to the basket or shoot the open 3, give n go, cut an slash to the basket etc. This is a tried and tested offense and it has a lot of flexibility.

Not cool Nix. I commented on the Triangle as a system, said I didnt mind it in the mix. No fun conversing with you when you get messianic about the Triangle, SSOL, Michael Bolton.

nixluva wrote:While not being the dominant part of the offense Phil's Lakers did use PnR and variations of the play.

Why are you showing Kobe and shaq PNR,

Your talking about two veteran first ballot hall of famers who can improvise at the drop of a hat, and knew the ins and outs of the triangle, not to mention being coach by TEX (pioneer of the triangle)WINTERS, AND PHIL( Big chief triangle) JACKSON.

You want to compare them to derek fisher, kurt rambis and a couple of prospects, you have to crawl before you walk, then run.

We ran the slowest offense in the league because we were thinking to much, let me get in the right spot,should i cut now, am i to selfish if i take a quick shot...I mean it was very little reaction, and just over thinking.

You have to simplify it, and take advantage of players skill set a lot more than what you would do if you had a kobe, shaq, MJ.

We don't have players on that level