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It’s just the latest evidence that during NBA salary negotiations, a player’s prior production is often valued over what they’ll realistically produce over the duration of their contract. And the primary setting where this plays out is the free agent market.

So, here at PointAfter, we’ve developed a metric called Free Agent Quotient (FAQ) to help assign a value to pending free agents. FAQ is designed to look ahead to how well each player will perform in the future instead of looking back at their past. So, listen up, all you NBA personnel reading this article!

The formula for FAQ takes the following statistics into account: a player’s 2014-15 PER, Career PER, 2014-15 Win Shares and age.

FAQ = (3*2014-15 PER) + (2*Career PER) + (3*2014-15 Win Shares) – (2*Age)

The general range for FAQ is 0-100, though there are some instances where transcendent superstars exceed 100 (pre-Decision LeBron James had a 134.2 FAQ, the best mark for any free agent since 2000) and declining benchwarmers dip into the negatives.

                          FAQ
1.  DeAndre Jordan        83.8
2.  Kawhi Leonard         83.4
3.  Jimmy Butler          80.5
4.  Brook Lopez           76.9
5.  Lamarcus Aldridge     76.8
6.  Kevin Love            75.5
7.  Greg Monroe           75.4
8.  Marc Gasol            73.1
9.  Enes Kanter           69.2
10. Brandan Wright        66.7
11. Paul Millsap          63.1
12. Tyson Chandler        60.2
13. Lou Williams          58.5
14. Goran Dragic          53.2
15. Tobias Harris         53.1
16. Amare Stoudemire      51.7
17. Drayman Green         51.3
18. Tristan Thompson      49.6 
19. Danny Green           48.9
20. Khris Middleton       48.5
21. Brandon Knight        47.7
22. Reggie Jackson        47.1
23. Robin Lopez           43.3
24. Cory Joseph           42.4
25. DeMarre Carroll       40.7
26. Wesley Matthews       40.3
27. Amir Johnson          37.7
28. Thaddeus Young        37.6 (player option)
29. Robert Covington      37.5 (I don't think he's a FA)
30. Bismack Biyombo       37.2 (restricted)
31. Monta Ellis           35.9 
32. Brandon Bass          34.6
33. Luol Deng             34.3
34. Omer Asik             34.1
35. Jeremy Lin            33.9
36. Rodney Stuckey        30.8
37. Kyle O’Quinn          30.8
38. David West            30.1
39. Jeff Green            29.7 (player option)
40. Josh Smith            29.0
41. Thomas Robinson       28.8
42. Carlos Boozer         28.8
43. Jonas Jerebko         28.3
44. Paul Pierce           28.3 (player option)
45. Manu Ginobili         27.9
46. Jae Crowder           27.6
47. Luis Scola            26.8
48. Marcus Thornton       26.7
49. Rajon Rondo           26.4
50. Omri Casspi           24.7

Not surprised DeAndre is top given his age- he would be my first wish.

How PER is Calculated

The goal of PER is to assign a single number to a player, which indicates their effectiveness on the court. This is done by examining all the official statistics kept by the NBA including both positive statistics, such as field goals made and assists, as well as negative statistics, such as turnovers.

Each statistic is assigned a value used to weight the contribution of that statistic to the PER formula. This is done because not all statistical categories are equally important. For example, field goals made are weighted more heavily than assists. Assists are important, but not as important as shots made, since they are the desired end result of any possession. Research has been done by Hollinger and other statisticians in an attempt to determine the exact relative importance (numerically) of each statistic.

The calculation goes further by using per-minute statistics, rather than raw totals or per-game numbers. Per-minute statistics are far more meaningful in representing a player's productivity than any of the aforementioned methods. For example, let's compare a player (A) who scores 14 points per game and plays 20 minutes per game, to a player (B) who scores 15 points per game and plays 35 minutes per game. Player B scores more per game than player A, but because he needs to play many more minutes than player A to accomplish this, player A is actually the more productive player in the time he's on the court.

Another element that increases the accuracy of PER is that all numbers are adjusted by the "pace" of each individual team. A team that plays at a much higher pace (shots per minute, for example) gives its players more of an opportunity to put up numbers, but that doesn't mean that player is better, or playing more effectively than those on slower-paced teams.

How to Interpret the PER

The way the PER formula is constructed, the PER of an average NBA player is always 15. The following is a breakdown of what various PER values indicate:

All-time great season: 35+
Hands-down MVP: 30-35
Strong MVP candidate: 27.5-30
Long-shot MVP candidate: 25-27.5
Definite All-Star: 22.5-25
Borderline All-Star: 20-22.5
Second offensive option: 18-20
Third offensive option: 16.5-18
Slightly above-average player: 15-16.5
Rotation player: 13-15
Non-rotation player: 11-13
Fringe roster player: 9-11
Player who won't stick in the league: 5-9

The all-time leader in career NBA PER is Michael Jordan with 27.91 over his career. Other players in the all-time top ten include Shaquille O'Neal (26.43), David Robinson (26.18), Wilt Chamberlain (26.13) and Bob Pettit (25.37).

Benefits of the PER Statistic

PER is a huge step up from looking at standard boxscore statistics. It is much more detailed and accurate than anything one can do with raw statistical totals or per-game numbers.

Negatives of the PER Statistic

The one major weakness in the original PER concept is lack of consideration for defense. Yes, there are blocked shots and steals, but the formula doesn't account in any way for guys who play great individual or team defense. A solution to this was found by Roland Beech of 82games, who came up with a way to estimate a player's defensive prowess by looking at the PER of the players he defended during the season. This addition made PER an even more powerful analytical tool.

nixluva wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:Well I think this list is BS because I think any team that maxes out Jordan is going to be in cap hell for the duration of his contract

It's simply about production. He has his flaws but he's also very productive. IMO when you're combining PER and Win Shares you really are covering a lot of info on a player's impact on his team. I'd love to see a better metric for assessing overall impact.

I mean I get it... I just don't like a list where DeAndre Jordan comes out #1 because I think it would be ill-advised to give a guy who can't create his own shot or hit a freethrow the top overall FA target