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OT: Is Tobias Harris the NBA's Most Underrated Player?
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BigDaddyG
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5/7/2015  2:29 PM
This write up from the guys over at Basketball Analytics makes a good case. He's definitely someone need to kick the tires on.
http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Let’s see which NBA forwards have produced like a superstar VF (versatile forward) this season. The elite VFs must be able to score and rebound. They must also be able to shoot 3s. This season, only six players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds per game, while also shooting 35% (on at least two 3-point attempts per game). Only six VFs met these minimum requirements. They were Love, Millsap, Bosh, Durant, LeBron, and our mystery man.

Who might be missing? This grossly undervalued NBA player is not only among the NBA’s elite VFs, but also the youngest by four years to make the list.

This player is only the 4th player in the last five seasons to meet the minimum requirements outlined above while still 22 years old or younger. The others were Love, Durant and George.

The NBA’s most underrated player is Tobias Harris

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Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
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BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  2:32 PM
This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.
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crzymdups
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5/7/2015  2:47 PM
I like Harris a lot, but he's a tweener. Very similar to Melo.

Also, going by their criteria, Melo is practically the prototypical VF.

I wouldn't be opposed to looking into Harris, but I also think at 23yrs old with a reasonable max deal for his age, the Magic will look to match any offer on him.

For the way Phil Jackson wants to play, I think Monroe might actaully be the better fit, even though I like him less.

¿ △ ?
BigDaddyG
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5/7/2015  2:57 PM
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

I have wouldn't say he's nothing special. He's matchup nightmare from the forward spot and he's developing into one of the league's best scorers. He's scoring improvement s are even more impressive when you consider who he plays for and his defense has also impressed. The key thing with this dude is his age. He's only 23. The Atlanta Hawks have proven that you can get it done with two combo forwards in the lineup. All I'm saying is that he needs to be taken into consideration during free agency.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
nixluva
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5/7/2015  3:01 PM
According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

BigDaddyG
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5/7/2015  4:23 PM    LAST EDITED: 5/7/2015  4:25 PM
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.


Tobias is pretty solid in terms of efficiency when you look at his useage. He has a VORP of 1 which is solid. He's an OK defender at Power Forward according to http://www.82games.com/1415/14ORL10.HTM
Check out this snippet from the article referenced above:

Tobias had the fewest DPA(defensive possessions against), the fewest points allowed and the fewest FGM against. All of the data suggests that Tobias is either proficient at preventing shots when opponents attack him or opponents are not choosing to attack Tobias as often as his teammates. In either case, the data supports that Tobias is a capable defender.

On the DPA, opponents shot 38% against Tobias. That number is respectable. For comparison, Oladipo and Payton both allowed opponents to shoot 44%. When we factor in the low rate at which Tobias allows shots, we see his overall defensive performance is quite impressive. Tobias allowed 2.51 FGM per 48 minutes played. Harris played 34.8 minutes per game. So, he allowed 1.82 FGM on DPA per game. Even if Harris had held opponents to a ridiculously low 28% shooting on DPA, it would have only reduced is FGA against by .5 FGM per game (or 1 FG every 2 games

.
Also, Tobias is 23 and Carroll is 29. Care to compare Carroll's stats at the same age?
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
knickscity
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5/7/2015  5:05 PM
Sometimes you cant really trust stats, Tobias is one of those cases. The kid certainly can play and likely will get better. I'd be surprised if the Magic let him go, but he'd certainly be a player worth looking at.
yellowboy90
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5/7/2015  5:41 PM
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

I find it interesting you use Shved as an example against Tobias when his career WS/48 is .046. He has had an abysmal WS/48 in 147 game sample compared to his good WS in 33 games in Philly and NY. On top of that Tobias has a higher career efficiency. Also, his Orlando WS/48 is right at league avg Now, price does play a part in both players evaluation.

I do understand the reservations about Tobias( I just don't like using Shved) because of the money a team would be paying. They would be overpaying a player based on the potential that a 22y/o would break out and having him locked into a long term contract. I do think Tobias offensively is on his way to becoming a better player and he needs to keep improving on defense. He needs to continue improving his 3pt shooting and increase his attempts. If I had a good team I would add Tobias at the right price.

callmened
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5/7/2015  5:41 PM
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

+1000

I love Harris. i actually have mentioned several times that i hope he signs with the knicks. but lets be honest...hes no star (yet). im sure the stats might prove otherwise but anyone who watches him play knows that he tends to disappear at times, gets hurt, sloppy defense and no leader. hes still young and might improve but for now he is what he is

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
yellowboy90
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5/7/2015  5:46 PM
knickscity wrote:Sometimes you cant really trust stats, Tobias is one of those cases. The kid certainly can play and likely will get better. I'd be surprised if the Magic let him go, but he'd certainly be a player worth looking at.

See, I'm the complete opposite. The reports are that the Magic want to draft a 3 and also last year pick, Aaron Gordon, played minutes at the 3 last year. If Magic draft Winslow or S. Johnson, then I think a team can simply offer him a contract like Parsons but with lower money. The key would be getting Tobias to agree to a lower deal but for NY I think it would be easier to get him to based on family, his shoe bonus, and the chance to get even bigger money in '17 if he performs well.

yellowboy90
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5/7/2015  6:03 PM
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

I think this is where analytics are needed to evaluate and discover good players on bad teams that can fit in roles surrounded by better teammates. Let's not forget the great Kanter and his Utah stint. Anyway, the defensive numbers are what caught my eye and would be something that you would have to explore more. His defense this year and last year and a half need to be evaluated with a fine tooth comb and compare how he plays as a SF or PF and if he improved or not. Then I would look at how the team defended when he was on the court. Orlando has a terrible collection of defenders and lacks a rim protector. If he truly is as good as a the numbers say then adding him to a rim protector would be key.

callmened
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5/7/2015  6:11 PM
yellowboy90 wrote:
knickscity wrote:Sometimes you cant really trust stats, Tobias is one of those cases. The kid certainly can play and likely will get better. I'd be surprised if the Magic let him go, but he'd certainly be a player worth looking at.

See, I'm the complete opposite. The reports are that the Magic want to draft a 3 and also last year pick, Aaron Gordon, played minutes at the 3 last year. If Magic draft Winslow or S. Johnson, then I think a team can simply offer him a contract like Parsons but with lower money. The key would be getting Tobias to agree to a lower deal but for NY I think it would be easier to get him to based on family, his shoe bonus, and the chance to get even bigger money in '17 if he performs well.

great point. i dont think the magic want him based on who they drafted. but it also depends on who they bring in as head coach. that coach might believe in harris

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  6:48 PM
If I was Orlando Id prey on the Knicks. Id offer them Tobias Harris for their lottery pick.
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CrushAlot
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5/7/2015  6:57 PM
BRIGGS wrote:If I was Orlando Id prey on the Knicks. Id offer them Tobias Harris for their lottery pick.
Why would the Knicks ever consider that? Acquiring Harris as a free agent is a reasonable outcome for the Knicks with their cap space. No need for the Knicks to give up their biggest asset. Orlando might match a Knick offer but if he is the guy the Knicks target they could put the Magic in a spot to make a very difficult decision.
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BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  6:58 PM
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:If I was Orlando Id prey on the Knicks. Id offer them Tobias Harris for their lottery pick.
Why would the Knicks ever consider that? Acquiring Harris as a free agent is a reasonable outcome for the Knicks with their cap space. No need for the Knicks to give up their biggest asset. Orlando might match a Knick offer but if he is the guy the Knicks target they could put the Magic in a spot to make a very difficult decision.

If I was Orlando's GM there is no way I wouldnt match any offer--I simply control Harris and I will pay him the max--even if I want to move him. Id say to the Knicks Ill S+t him to you for the pick otherwise best of luck.

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Knixkik
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5/7/2015  7:13 PM
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  7:52 PM
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

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nixluva
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5/7/2015  8:16 PM
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

I find it interesting you use Shved as an example against Tobias when his career WS/48 is .046. He has had an abysmal WS/48 in 147 game sample compared to his good WS in 33 games in Philly and NY. On top of that Tobias has a higher career efficiency. Also, his Orlando WS/48 is right at league avg Now, price does play a part in both players evaluation.

I do understand the reservations about Tobias( I just don't like using Shved) because of the money a team would be paying. They would be overpaying a player based on the potential that a 22y/o would break out and having him locked into a long term contract. I do think Tobias offensively is on his way to becoming a better player and he needs to keep improving on defense. He needs to continue improving his 3pt shooting and increase his attempts. If I had a good team I would add Tobias at the right price.


Perhaps you didn't understand my point in mentioning Shved. It wasn't to say he's a direct comparison with Tobias. Why would I do that since there are forwards I could use to do that. I didn't directly compare Tobias and Shved. If you re-read what I wrote I said, Shved was merely mentioned in the same paragraph but not directly compared.

nixluva wrote:Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

Tobias isn't perfect but he can create his own offense. I do want to see him perform at a higher level than he's shown so far. I didn't say he couldn't do that only that he hasn't done it.

yellowboy90
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5/7/2015  9:24 PM
nixluva wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

I find it interesting you use Shved as an example against Tobias when his career WS/48 is .046. He has had an abysmal WS/48 in 147 game sample compared to his good WS in 33 games in Philly and NY. On top of that Tobias has a higher career efficiency. Also, his Orlando WS/48 is right at league avg Now, price does play a part in both players evaluation.

I do understand the reservations about Tobias( I just don't like using Shved) because of the money a team would be paying. They would be overpaying a player based on the potential that a 22y/o would break out and having him locked into a long term contract. I do think Tobias offensively is on his way to becoming a better player and he needs to keep improving on defense. He needs to continue improving his 3pt shooting and increase his attempts. If I had a good team I would add Tobias at the right price.


Perhaps you didn't understand my point in mentioning Shved. It wasn't to say he's a direct comparison with Tobias. Why would I do that since there are forwards I could use to do that. I didn't directly compare Tobias and Shved. If you re-read what I wrote I said, Shved was merely mentioned in the same paragraph but not directly compared.

nixluva wrote:Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

Tobias isn't perfect but he can create his own offense. I do want to see him perform at a higher level than he's shown so far. I didn't say he couldn't do that only that he hasn't done it.


I should have worded my post better.

I do understand they are not direct comparisons. What I was saying is I do not like using players like Shved numbers. You focused on an extremely small sample(NY,Hou, & Phi- ws/48 .135) out off another small sample(career- ws/48 .046) to describe how he could help a team ignoring the much larger sample of minutes that suggest he is a fringe player.

I pretty much agree with your overall Tobias assessment. I do think that if Tobias is actual coached by a smart coaching staff and gets to a team focused on analytics his game would jump instantly. Carroll is a good example of that. His shots from 10 ft to - < 3-pt has decreased over the last three years from 120('12-'13) to 88('13-'14) to 75('14-'15). That's what Tobias should be doing instead of going from 104 to 235 to 238 over the same time period as Carroll. Would he listen? Is this the staff that would tell him? That is probably the bigger question. Fisher and co seemed to start taking more threes and less mid range shots as the season went on but I have not looked at the numbers.

To me right now Tobias is a better version of Wilson Chandler. Chandler had similar potential but never put it all together will Tobias waste his potential like Chandler or grow into a player like Carroll.

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5/7/2015  10:50 PM
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

I am not sure what this has to do with the Knicks getting Harris. I never said anything of that sort. I am strictly talking about him as a player. I made no comment about the Knicks. I didn't know this thread had anything to do with the Knicks.

OT: Is Tobias Harris the NBA's Most Underrated Player?

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