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How About We Trade Our First Pick ...
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mreinman
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4/14/2015  4:47 PM
for Stein and Kaminsky?

Or maybe philly will give us Embiid and their pick?

So let me get this straight ... we are in the one spot and have 25% percent chance to get the first pick and we have all these fantasy scenarios of getting back the moon for our pick ... how great it will be to have the first pick ... yadayada yada.

Now our chances go down ~5% and now the assumption is that we are not getting the pick but before we were going to get it?

Lets start dealing with reality and not improbable scenarios.

our stock is down 5% ... why is it now that everyone is heading to the ledge?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
AUTOADVERT
knickscity
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4/14/2015  4:51 PM
Why trade it when thats who Phil is gonna draft? The only reason why folks are on the ledge is because of myths. The draft is merely a lucky pull. The %'s really dont mean anything. 1st might have more pin pong balls but they dont cash in very often. It's a crap shoot, just draft a good player and keep it moving.
mreinman
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4/14/2015  4:52 PM    LAST EDITED: 4/14/2015  4:52 PM
knickscity wrote:Why trade it when thats who Phil is gonna draft? The only reason why folks are on the ledge is because of myths. The draft is merely a lucky pull. The %'s really dont mean anything. 1st might have more pin pong balls but they dont cash in very often. It's a crap shoot, just draft a good player and keep it moving.

you don't believe in odds.

you must be a very religious man

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Knicks1969
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4/14/2015  4:54 PM
I proposed that trade a little while ago
Thank God Fisher is no longer our coach, now let's get Calderon out of here:)
knickscity
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4/14/2015  4:56 PM
mreinman wrote:
knickscity wrote:Why trade it when thats who Phil is gonna draft? The only reason why folks are on the ledge is because of myths. The draft is merely a lucky pull. The %'s really dont mean anything. 1st might have more pin pong balls but they dont cash in very often. It's a crap shoot, just draft a good player and keep it moving.

you don't believe in odds.

you must be a very religious man


I dont believe in things that dont pay out.
knicks1248
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4/14/2015  5:00 PM
12 years since the team that finish last got the first pick, before that is was 8 yrs. so out of the last 19 or so yrs only 1 team that finsh with the worst record got the #1 pick and some of you guys are acting like we have no shot.

10 times in the last 12 yrs the team with the 2nd worst record won the #1 pick, so you may want to consider the odds against reality

ES
Dagger
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4/14/2015  5:32 PM
knicks1248 wrote:12 years since the team that finish last got the first pick, before that is was 8 yrs. so out of the last 19 or so yrs only 1 team that finsh with the worst record got the #1 pick and some of you guys are acting like we have no shot.

10 times in the last 12 yrs the team with the 2nd worst record won the #1 pick, so you may want to consider the odds against reality

That's not how probabilities work
H1AND1
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4/14/2015  6:09 PM
Dagger wrote:
knicks1248 wrote:12 years since the team that finish last got the first pick, before that is was 8 yrs. so out of the last 19 or so yrs only 1 team that finsh with the worst record got the #1 pick and some of you guys are acting like we have no shot.

10 times in the last 12 yrs the team with the 2nd worst record won the #1 pick, so you may want to consider the odds against reality

That's not how probabilities work

I keep repeating in thread after thread that past results have absolutely no bearing on future odds but people just don't wanna listen. The draft so far in its history has had some wonky results but everything evens out of over time as the sample size grows.
mreinman
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4/14/2015  6:23 PM
knickscity wrote:
mreinman wrote:
knickscity wrote:Why trade it when thats who Phil is gonna draft? The only reason why folks are on the ledge is because of myths. The draft is merely a lucky pull. The %'s really dont mean anything. 1st might have more pin pong balls but they dont cash in very often. It's a crap shoot, just draft a good player and keep it moving.

you don't believe in odds.

you must be a very religious man


I dont believe in things that dont pay out.

Not sure what you mean.

if you bet 4:1 and it pays 5:1 is that good?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
mreinman
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4/14/2015  6:23 PM
H1AND1 wrote:
Dagger wrote:
knicks1248 wrote:12 years since the team that finish last got the first pick, before that is was 8 yrs. so out of the last 19 or so yrs only 1 team that finsh with the worst record got the #1 pick and some of you guys are acting like we have no shot.

10 times in the last 12 yrs the team with the 2nd worst record won the #1 pick, so you may want to consider the odds against reality

That's not how probabilities work

I keep repeating in thread after thread that past results have absolutely no bearing on future odds but people just don't wanna listen. The draft so far in its history has had some wonky results but everything evens out of over time as the sample size grows.

or the lottery is flawed and it results are questionable.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
VCoug
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4/14/2015  7:57 PM
Dagger wrote:
knicks1248 wrote:12 years since the team that finish last got the first pick, before that is was 8 yrs. so out of the last 19 or so yrs only 1 team that finsh with the worst record got the #1 pick and some of you guys are acting like we have no shot.

10 times in the last 12 yrs the team with the 2nd worst record won the #1 pick, so you may want to consider the odds against reality

That's not how probabilities work

Not only is that not how probabilities work his numbers aren't even correct: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_winners http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Lottery_winners

In the past 12 years the team with the 2nd worst record got the #1 pick once: the 2009 Clippers. The team's that have won the lottery in the last 12 years finished: 9, 3, tied-3, 8, 5, 2, 9, 6, 5, 6, 1, 1-tied.
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