If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What do people make of this?

The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.

KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this?

The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.

Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .

BRIGGS wrote:

KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this?

The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.

Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .

KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:Playing the devil's advocate....If recent draft history is any barometer, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 17th. You just have to take the right guy.

2014 do you want Noah Vonleh or Zach Levine or Josef Nurkic
2013 do you want Trey Burke or the Greek Freak or Denis Schoeder
2012 do you want Austin Rivers or John Henson or Tyler Zeller

Zach Lavine if he stayed would be number 1 in this draft. You can get guys at a significant discount to what hey may have achieved by staying and developing.

holfresh wrote:Players get paid extra cash for the playoffs.. I know someone who were close friends with a Net when JKidd was there and he said they got paid cash in duffle bags..So top 10 draft pick or a duffle bag of cash?

Tanking is up to the coach and team execs to handle. Obviously the players aren't going to decide to start missing shots or giving up points.

franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!

Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?

franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!

As much as I like Dragics game(with the right system), I don't want to put 5 white guys on the floor at one time ever again unless it's the reincarnation of BIRD, NASH, Dan Majerle, MULLEN and SABONIS...lol

BRIGGS wrote:
Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .

Worst case scenario with Bargnani is always that he re-signs with the Knicks. He's terrible. I will dance a jig the day he signs with another team.

fishmike wrote:

Knicks1969 wrote:

franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!

Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?

ever been to Mia? I mean yea.. why would anyone from Europe want to leave Mia and go to NYC???

if they are liberals who like paying more taxes.