as of 3/31

team (____rec____) games back
1. knicks - (14-60) --
2. wolves - (16-58) 2
3. sixers - (18-57) 3 1/2
4. lakers - (20-53) 6 1/2
5. orlando - (22-52) 8

odds of #1 top 3
1. 25% 64.3%
2. 19.9% 55.8%
3. 15.6% 46.9%
4. 11.9% 37.8%

key games that are shaping up to be must lose:
thurs 3/19 - minnesota - L
fri 3/20 - @sixers - L
sun 4/5 - sixers

other important games

sun 3/22 - sixers @ lakers - lakers W
wed 3/25 - lakers @ wolves - lakers W
mon 3/30 - lakers @ sixers - lakers W
fri 4/10 - wolves @ lakers

we are a lock for a top 4 worst record which gives us, roughly, no worse than a 12% chance at #1 and 38% chance at top 3... finishing with the worst doubles each of those odds... 25% chance at #1 and 65% chance in the top 3... in cases of a tie, the tied teams split the ping pong balls evenly with the odd ping pong ball going to a coin flip...

minnesota looks to have the hardest schedule left but probably has the best team since they do have nba players on their roster...

it will be very close and there is a high likelihood of it coming down to the last week of the season...

FistOfOakley wrote:with 18 or so games to go... we are in the stretch run for pole position for the most important draft since ewing...

as of 3/13

team rec games back odds of #1 top 3
1. knicks 13-51 25% 64.3%
2. wolves 14-49 1 1/2 19.9% 55.8%
3. sixers 15-50 1 1/2 15.6% 46.9%
4. lakers 17-47 3 11.9% 37.8%
5. orlando 21-45 7 8.8% 29.1%

key games that are shaping up to be must lose:
thurs 3/19 - minnesota
fri 3/20 - @sixers
sun 4/5 - sixers

other important games

sun 3/22 - sixers @ lakers
wed 3/25 - lakers @ wolves
mon 3/30 - lakers @ sixers
fri 4/10 - wolves @ lakers

we are a lock for a top 4 worst record which gives us, roughly, no worse than a 12% chance at #1 and 38% chance at top 3... finishing with the worst doubles each of those odds... 25% chance at #1 and 65% chance in the top 3... in cases of a tie, the tied teams split the ping pong balls evenly with the odd ping pong ball going to a coin flip...

minnesota looks to have the hardest schedule left but probably has the best team since they do have nba players on their roster...

it will be very close and there is a high likelihood of it coming down to the last week of the season...

Just remember to manage your expectations- although finishing with the worst record gives us the highest chance of getting the number 1 (25%), that still means there is a 75% chance that we won't get it- it's far more likely we won't get the number 1 pick. However, it does mean we'd be guaranteed to pick no worse than 4. Every time I use that ESPN draft lottery machine, we end up picking 4th- depressing!

I refuse to get my hopes up again. The pain is easier if you just assume the worst.

I think management already knows who looks good who they might want back and who may be ripe for moving on. Really I have almost no information I need from this season from the Knicks. I cannot see a scenario where we may add or change our minds on almost anyone.

I think there are some knicks who might be off elsewhere who have been given a nice chance here. Give the whole roster a chance to play now even those guys guys like Acy Wear etc... and dont overplay Gallo Alex or Bargs. There is NO value in it.

We need to lose out the last 15--as in for real TANK. and I mean TANK hard. See how Denver gets messages from above to sit 3 guys one night 3 the next. Its just strategic business for the long term benefit for the team.

We hired Phil Jackson--gave him 12mm dollars for a reason thats 12mm. While I did thing he was trying to win--really hes done a SOLID job putting us in a good position for cap space and a high draft pick. We also have 2 guards that are keepers long term--good trades that were NEVER done by our past GMs like Thomas and who looks even worse day by day Grunwald. Id give Phil a solid B at this point with a chance to move up to an A- IF he can finish the job and keep us at atleast the 1-2 position for the draft. Anything past that with the potential to move down to 6-7 in the draft after a year like this would be an unmitigated disaster FAR worse then the season. It really would be. Phil has to be stern and strict here for everyones benefit. Play the guys in rotations of 20 minutes two units and play every last guy on the roster the last 15. Play hard let each guy get burn but rotate enough to lose a little rhythm and hopefully 12 of the last 15 games. Losing is winning and draft night is where we take the HUGE benefit. If we end up in positionm 6 or less--the grade for Phil drops to D. That bad.

fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.

The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots

+1

fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.

The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots

the whole purpose of tanking this year is to increase the odds of getting the #1 and also the top 3.. i would say the top 3 is probably more important...

making side arrangements with agents is not a good draft strategy and definitely does not work on ncaa kids who have their whole body of work on a national stage...

blkexec wrote:

fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.

The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots

+1

+2

Developing Galloway and Shved is like getting free late first round picks. Finding out guys like Amundson and Aldrich are keepers saves us money in FA and allows them to build a team identity.