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raven
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insider Special: Shaq "D"allas?
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Has there ever been a weekend where three of the league's top five stars all began packing their bags at the same time? Shaquille O'Neal wants a trade. So does Tracy McGrady. Kobe Bryant is opting out. If that isn't enough to make you renew your Insider subscription, we're not sure what is.
Insider was on the phone with numerous league sources over the weekend. Here's the scuttle on where Shaq, T-Mac and Kobe might land in the next month.
Shaq to Big D?
Shaquille O'Neal's demand to be traded has less to do with Kobe than it does with his desire to tack an extra two years, $60 million onto his current contract, which has two years left. Sources told Insider that owner Jerry Buss doesn't even want to discuss such a large extension. That decision, not the end of the Phil Jackson tenure, prompted Shaq to demand a trade. Shaq knows his window to cash in one last time is closing. He's 32 now and will be 34 when his contract is up. Does anyone believe Shaq can get that type of extension two years from now? It's now or never, which is why Shaq wants to be traded to a team willing to cut the check.
Sources claim the Lakers don't really want to trade Shaq but are willing to move him if they can get a young superstar plus cap relief for next summer in return. Four teams look like they could be possible trading partners for the Lakers.
Option 1: The Pacers aren't parting with Jermaine O'Neal. A combo of Al Harrington and Ron Artest might make the Lakers notice, but having to swallow the contracts of Scot Pollard and Austin Croshere as part of the deal make it less desirable. But would Donnie Walsh & Co. really be willing to break up the team for Shaq? And would the owners be willing to commit the extra $60 million to keep the big fella happy?
Option 2: The Grizzlies could combine Pau Gasol, Bonzi Wells, Bo Outlaw and Lorenzen Wright to create a package that would work a bit better for the Lakers. Wells and Outlaw come off the books next season, freeing up significant cap room. But this is a potential straight-up Gasol-for-Shaq deal. Is that enough value to get back for Shaq? The Grizzlies probably would be willing to do the extension. Jerry West has been searching for a dominant big man since he got to Memphis, and we all know that he has a great relationship with Shaq.
Option 3: The Blazers also could put together a package of Theo Ratliff, Damon Stoudamire, Zach Randolph and the No. 13 pick in the draft for Shaq. Stoudamire comes off the books next year, Randolph was the Most Improved Player of the Year at the four, and Ratliff is still one of the best shot-blockers in the league. Paul Allen wouldn't hesitate to spend the cash for Shaq. But if the Blazers give up this much for Shaq, will they have enough players around him to win a title?
Option 4: That leaves us with the Mavericks. Reports out of Dallas claim owner Mark Cuban would give up anyone on his roster, with the exception of Dirk Nowitzki, for Shaq. However, a source in Dallas told Insider over the weekend that the Mavericks absolutely would be willing to give up Nowitzki and Antoine Walker for O'Neal. The Mavs aren't going to win a championship without a real presence in the middle. No one else they have can command a decent big man back in a trade. This is Cuban's best chance to win a championship. Nowitzki is a high price to pay, but it's worth it. The Mavs would field a team that still had Steve Nash (they'd re-sign him for sure, to play with Shaq), Michael Finley, Josh Howard and Antawn Jamison. Put Shaq in the middle, and it's the best team in the NBA -- more formidable, in my mind, than the team the Lakers fielded this year. Even if Shaq only plays well for two more seasons, a real shot at a championship is worth the risk.
Would the Lakers bite on any of those options? The trade with Dallas makes the most sense by far. The Lakers add a young versatile All-Star forward to work with Kobe. They clear Walker's $14.5 million salary off the books next summer. Given that Gary Payton, Rick Fox and Derek Fisher also will be gone in a year, the Lakers would be looking at $10 million-plus to use in the 2005 free agent market. The Lakers have had zero trouble recruiting free agents in the past. With a core of Kobe and Nowitzki, the Lakers can salvage their team and their image. All of the other options leave the Lakers struggling for credibility.
It's a deal made in Mark Cuban heaven. Don't be shocked if Cuban and Buss pull the trigger.
Kobe back to L.A.?
Kobe has opted out of his deal and likely will take his time deciding where he wants to play next year. Sources close to Bryant told Insider over the weekend that his first choice still is to remain a Laker. The same sources contend Bryant had little to do with the Lakers' break-up. Buss was balking at the huge amounts of money Jackson ($10 million per season) and Shaq (two-year, $60-million extension) were demanding. That precipitated, more than anything else, the decision to let Jackson walk and to consider trading Shaq.
What does that have to do with Kobe? He wants to explore his options, but he's inclined to re-sign with the Lakers as long as he's sure the team still has the necessary pieces to win. He's loyal to L.A., but not if that means being part of a long rebuilding process. If Shaq comes back, the Lakers will be contenders again, regardless of the supporting cast around him. If Shaq is traded, it's much less clear. A deal with a team like Dallas would keep the Lakers relevant. Other trades, like ones the Pacers or Grizzlies might offer, probably mean the Lakers would take a step back for a few years.
With at least one championship contender, the Spurs, clearing enough cap room to make a run Kobe, the Lakers will have serious competition for his services.
T-Mac to the Clippers?
Shaq leaving. Kobe staying. What, you ask, does T-Mac have to do with all of this? He reportedly has told friends his ultimate desire is to play with Shaq. That's not going to happen in L.A. T-Mac has looked to Dallas as a possible destination. Unless the Magic are willing to swallow an equally bad contract in return -- and they're not -- it just doesn't make sense. They'd want Nowitzki for T-Mac the same way the Lakers would for Shaq. It's one or the other.
McGrady may be controlling the process -- no team will trade for him without a guarantee he'll sign an extension -- but the Magic are partners too. They don't have to trade McGrady right now. T-Mac wants out and knows he has to work with the Magic to make it happen. Where will he land?
Option 1: The Rockets are rumored to be in the lead, offering a combo of Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato for McGrady and Juwan Howard. That sounds like a fantasy trade that every other owner would veto. We know John Weisbrod is a hockey guy, but even he should know this is a terrible deal for the Magic. If the Rockets pull this off, pencil them into the Western Conference Finals.
Option 2: The Pacers want to get something done but aren't giving up Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Jonathan Bender and Jamaal Tinsley for T-Mac. It's just too much. The deal would be Harrington and either Artest or Bender. That's as far as they're willing to go. The team doesn't really want to trade either Artest or Bender, and they certainly won't ship away both players -- even for T-Mac. Add Harrington and Bender to a front court with Emeka Okafor, and the Magic could be set for a long time. They'd have to seriously consider it.
Option 3: The Suns are willing to give up Shawn Marion, Casey Jacobsen and either the No. 7 or Joe Johnson for T-Mac. Marion is an all-star caliber small forward. With the No. 7 pick, the team could land a top-notch point guard like Devin Harris, Ben Gordon or Shaun Livingston. Jacobsen is serviceable at the two. Put that together with the No. 1 pick -- an Okafor/Gordon reunion, perhaps? -- and the Magic would be back in the playoffs almost immediately.
Option 4: The Clippers may have the best package to offer, but would T-Mac play there? One source close to McGrady told Insider he'd "consider it." Why? Because the huge media market would make his endorsement opportunities much more lucrative. The Clippers also would have a pretty strong starting group with Elton Brand, McGrady, Chris Kaman, a re-signed Quentin Richardson and Marko Jaric. The team would be willing to give up Corey Maggette, Chris Wilcox and the No. 2 to get McGrady. That's a slam dunk for the Magic, who could draft Okafor and either Dwight Howard or Shaun Livingston to make one of the best young teams in the NBA. If McGrady believes the Clippers will keep spending, it would be an opportunity he'd have to consider. It may be the only way the Clippers are willing to do the trade.
Which way will the Magic go? The Suns, Clippers and Pacers all look like they could make offers that might make Weisbrod pull the trigger. Some of it will come down to T-Mac's preference. He wants to play in Houston, but the Rockets' offer isn't close to those of the other three teams. At the end of the day, I see either the Suns or Clippers landing him.
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