http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/01/27/shot-selection-in-the-knicks-triangle-offense/

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

The triangle offense has been incredibly successful in the NBA in the past. Phil Jackson famously implemented the triangle offense on championship teams in Chicago and Los Angeles. However, the NBA has changed significantly since Jackson last led a team to a title. Offenses now feature more perimeter shooters, and they station fewer bodies in the paint. They create more space for players to drive and cut down the lane. Today’s offenses are more influenced by analytics and have adapted to defensive rule changes. One has to wonder if the triangle offense will still be as successful as it once was.

The concern is shot selection.

We will analyze shots from six regions—the restricted area, the paint (but not the restricted area), mid-range, the left corner 3, the right corner 3, and the above-the-break 3. The league has the highest eFG% from the restricted area. The second highest eFG% is the corner 3. Not surprisingly then, many teams are striving to get more shots from those two high efficiency zones.

In contrast, the mid-range jump shot is the least efficient shot. Thus, teams are looking to take less shots from this area. That is, all teams follow this trend except the Knicks. The Knicks are getting .97 points from mid-range for every 1 point from the restricted area. That’s the highest such ratio in the NBA in 2015. In fact, it’s the most for any team in any season from 2009-10 through 2014-15.

Some might argue that we cannot evaluate the triangle offense based on these Knicks. These Knicks aren’t loaded with talent. One might suggest that we shouldn’t dismiss the offensive system just because these Knicks can’t make their shots. So, let’s try an experiment. Let’s create the Dream 2014-15 Knicks. These Dream Knicks will still take the same number of shots from each region as the 2014-15 Knicks. However, these Dream Knicks will shoot the league best % from each region. These Dream Knicks will finish around the hoop like Blake Griffin and the Clippers. They’ll knock down mid-range and above-the-break jumpers like the Splash Brothers and Golden State. We’ll even assume they shoot 52.6% from the right corner 3, which if it held for a full season, would be the highest corner 3 % for any team in the last 10 years. We gave the Dream Knicks the league’s best field goal % from every region and then recalculated their eFG%. How do these Griffin-dunking, splash brothers shooting Dream Knicks rank in eFG%? They still don’t have the best eFG% in the league. They still aren’t getting as many points per shot as this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

Maybe I’m being too negative. There is some good news here. Assuming the Knicks current shot selection, if the Knicks could shoot the league’s best % from each region, they would be an above average offense. I guess that’s one road map to success—build a backcourt that shoots like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and a front court that finishes at the hoop like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. The Knicks could do that….or they could ditch the triangle.

Let’s try another experiment. Let’s leave the Knicks’ shooting percentages as they are. Let’s suppose the Knicks finish like these Knicks—a team often believed to be considerably short on talent. Let’s now suppose that they have Houston’s shot selection. Remember how the Knicks had the highest ratio of mid-range points to restricted area points in any of the last 6 seasons. Houston has the second lowest such ratio of the same time frame. They trail only last season’s Rockets. While the 2014-15 Knicks seem to design their offense around getting the mid-range (and least efficient) shot, Houston tries very hard to avoid them.

To be clear, the current Knicks are 23rd in the league in eFG% (at approximately 48.5). If we keep the same shooting percentages and only alter their shot selection to mimic the Houston Rockets, the Knicks eFG% jumps to 52.2, which would be good enough for 6th in the league and only slightly behind the Dream Knicks who would have an eFG% of 53.6.

So, the Knicks have at least two paths to an efficient offense. They can keep their current shot selection as generated largely through the triangle offense and assemble the greatest shooting roster of all time. Or, they could alter their offensive strategy to be more consistent with everything we’ve learned through basketball analytics.

Are these Knicks taking a lot of mid range shots because that is what the offense dictates? Or is it what this team & talent get from this offense, and with a better set of players/talent, shot selection will improve.

arkrud wrote:

mreinman wrote:This was an excellent read:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/01/27/shot-selection-in-the-knicks-triangle-offense/

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

The triangle offense has been incredibly successful in the NBA in the past. Phil Jackson famously implemented the triangle offense on championship teams in Chicago and Los Angeles. However, the NBA has changed significantly since Jackson last led a team to a title. Offenses now feature more perimeter shooters, and they station fewer bodies in the paint. They create more space for players to drive and cut down the lane. Today’s offenses are more influenced by analytics and have adapted to defensive rule changes. One has to wonder if the triangle offense will still be as successful as it once was.

The concern is shot selection.

We will analyze shots from six regions—the restricted area, the paint (but not the restricted area), mid-range, the left corner 3, the right corner 3, and the above-the-break 3. The league has the highest eFG% from the restricted area. The second highest eFG% is the corner 3. Not surprisingly then, many teams are striving to get more shots from those two high efficiency zones.

In contrast, the mid-range jump shot is the least efficient shot. Thus, teams are looking to take less shots from this area. That is, all teams follow this trend except the Knicks. The Knicks are getting .97 points from mid-range for every 1 point from the restricted area. That’s the highest such ratio in the NBA in 2015. In fact, it’s the most for any team in any season from 2009-10 through 2014-15.

Some might argue that we cannot evaluate the triangle offense based on these Knicks. These Knicks aren’t loaded with talent. One might suggest that we shouldn’t dismiss the offensive system just because these Knicks can’t make their shots. So, let’s try an experiment. Let’s create the Dream 2014-15 Knicks. These Dream Knicks will still take the same number of shots from each region as the 2014-15 Knicks. However, these Dream Knicks will shoot the league best % from each region. These Dream Knicks will finish around the hoop like Blake Griffin and the Clippers. They’ll knock down mid-range and above-the-break jumpers like the Splash Brothers and Golden State. We’ll even assume they shoot 52.6% from the right corner 3, which if it held for a full season, would be the highest corner 3 % for any team in the last 10 years. We gave the Dream Knicks the league’s best field goal % from every region and then recalculated their eFG%. How do these Griffin-dunking, splash brothers shooting Dream Knicks rank in eFG%? They still don’t have the best eFG% in the league. They still aren’t getting as many points per shot as this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

Maybe I’m being too negative. There is some good news here. Assuming the Knicks current shot selection, if the Knicks could shoot the league’s best % from each region, they would be an above average offense. I guess that’s one road map to success—build a backcourt that shoots like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and a front court that finishes at the hoop like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. The Knicks could do that….or they could ditch the triangle.

Let’s try another experiment. Let’s leave the Knicks’ shooting percentages as they are. Let’s suppose the Knicks finish like these Knicks—a team often believed to be considerably short on talent. Let’s now suppose that they have Houston’s shot selection. Remember how the Knicks had the highest ratio of mid-range points to restricted area points in any of the last 6 seasons. Houston has the second lowest such ratio of the same time frame. They trail only last season’s Rockets. While the 2014-15 Knicks seem to design their offense around getting the mid-range (and least efficient) shot, Houston tries very hard to avoid them.

To be clear, the current Knicks are 23rd in the league in eFG% (at approximately 48.5). If we keep the same shooting percentages and only alter their shot selection to mimic the Houston Rockets, the Knicks eFG% jumps to 52.2, which would be good enough for 6th in the league and only slightly behind the Dream Knicks who would have an eFG% of 53.6.

So, the Knicks have at least two paths to an efficient offense. They can keep their current shot selection as generated largely through the triangle offense and assemble the greatest shooting roster of all time. Or, they could alter their offensive strategy to be more consistent with everything we’ve learned through basketball analytics.

Phil Jackson was so successful with triangle because he had the best mid-range players in the history of modern NBA along with great if not the best rebounding and defensive rosters.
That's why Phil locked Melo in... as he is probably the best mid-range offensive weapon in today's NBA...
Was this an illusion or genus and will he be able to assemble the "rebounding and defensive rosters" is to be seen...

What? Not even close! What are you basing that on.

2010-11 Offensive Efficiency Rank #6  Lost 2nd Rd.
2009-10 Offensive Efficiency Rank #11 Won NBA Finals
2008-09 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Won NBA Finals
2007-08 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Lost NBA Finals
2006-07 Offensive Efficiency Rank #7  Lost 1st Rd.
2005-06 Offensive Efficiency Rank #8  Lost 1st Rd.

Knicks1969 wrote:

TPercy wrote:If we want to get the best out of our guards the triangle needs to be dropped.

I disagree, the system is not the problem. The talent level and the coaching staff are the problems

nixluva wrote:Phil's last Lakers run:

2010-11 Offensive Efficiency Rank #6  Lost 2nd Rd.
2009-10 Offensive Efficiency Rank #11 Won NBA Finals
2008-09 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Won NBA Finals
2007-08 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Lost NBA Finals
2006-07 Offensive Efficiency Rank #7  Lost 1st Rd.
2005-06 Offensive Efficiency Rank #8  Lost 1st Rd.

Prime Shaq and Gasol were from the most efficient players of all time.

If we had one of those guys and it was a number of years ago then maybe the knicks could be ok efficiency wise (if it were many years ago)

mreinman wrote:

nixluva wrote:Phil's last Lakers run:

2010-11 Offensive Efficiency Rank #6  Lost 2nd Rd.
2009-10 Offensive Efficiency Rank #11 Won NBA Finals
2008-09 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Won NBA Finals
2007-08 Offensive Efficiency Rank #3  Lost NBA Finals
2006-07 Offensive Efficiency Rank #7  Lost 1st Rd.
2005-06 Offensive Efficiency Rank #8  Lost 1st Rd.

Prime Shaq and Gasol were from the most efficient players of all time.

If we had one of those guys and it was a number of years ago then maybe the knicks could be ok efficiency wise (if it were many years ago)

I think the idea is to try to draft a big who can play very efficiently in the Triangle and wings that can shoot efficiently as well. Between the draft and FA there should be more efficient players we can add. It's a process and it starts now.

Knicks1969 wrote:

TPercy wrote:If we want to get the best out of our guards the triangle needs to be dropped.

I disagree, the system is not the problem. The talent level and the coaching staff are the problems

Your still going to take a ton of mid range shots, never get to the free throw line, and have your pf taking corner 3's like all-of-a-sudden jason smith. when you stretch you big all the way out, then you leave your guards to get offensive rebounds..Not good

It's best to have a dominate big man, and a dominate sg who can create and has a high IQ. More importantly, a top 5 rebounder/defender who cares nothing about offense other than put backs and dunks..

This triangle thing takes specific skill sets and role players

I see the team getting good looks and missing them more often than not. I see a team that does not go to the basket. They do not break down the Defense with penetration. They dont get to the line. All of these things are more about the player IQ than the system. The system allows for cuts, drives etc...the players are just not good enough to take advantage of that or the open shots.

FistOfOakley wrote:the thing with shot selection is that you can't pretend that the defense isn't there....

you ideally want to make the shot that you want 100% of the time but that doesn't happen.... you go for the closest one which are layups/dunks that are uncontested... if not, you go further out....

if you make 3s 100% of the time then you of course should go for that... but again that doesn't happen.. some players make it 50% of the time like curry or korver but they only shoot that high a percentage when they are wide open...

if you are shooting a 2pt shot that's less than 75% of going in.. then all of a sudden THAT's inefficient in relation to curry or korver shooting... but curry or korver can't shoot every shot or else they'll get contested more heavily and then they'll shoot a weaker percentage to where it becomes inefficient...

to simplify things... it's all relative.. mid range shots in a vacuum aren't inefficient... you cannot live by 3s and layups if you're getting contested heavily there... you won't be hitting enough of those if the other team is hitting mid range shots at an 80% clip...

Nobody is hitting mid range shots at an 80% clip, not even the celtics

Houston, Portland and Atlanta try to stay away from the mid range shot. Of course they will take some but really try not to. There is a reason why they are available, because they are inefficient and the defense would rather you take them.

If you hit the 3 at greater than a 35 percent clip, that is far far better than any mid range shot, which are generally not hit at greater than a 45% clip.

FistOfOakley wrote:there's going to be a bunch of midrange shots over the course of a game... if i remember correctly it's probably the majority if not an even split...

as defenses get better in the playoffs... you're shot selection is going to veer more heavily towards the mid range also... you cannot just get any shot you want against an elite defense all the time...

shot selection boils down... what type of shots you work for.. 3s and layups are ideal... but it's also a function of what type of shots you can get.... if you're korver you cannot just dribble around and pull up for a contested 3 and hit it at decent clip... his 3s are a function of the atlanta offense that give him open looks...

it's very easy to tell a team... go for layups and 3s... it's entirely different thing to be able to get quality shots...

These sortable Shooting Stats are very helpful:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015.html

only 28 percent of Houstons shots are beween 3 feet and the arc compared to 51% for the knicks.

Teams are gonna need to take some mid range shots, however, shots between 16 and 23 feet should be avoided at all costs and 10-16 is far from ideal.

The knicks shoot 26 percent of their shots from here while Houston shoots 6 percent. League average is 17.7.

Lets revisit this next year with the new personnel. If they are still leading the league in these (bad) categories and we are not doing well, this maybe be one of the smoking guns.