Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the second-highest-ranked big man on Ford's Big Board (No. 3). However, his numbers aren't dominant. Why does he warrant a high draft ranking? Insider's NBA draft experts weigh in on that as well as other topics, including NBA comps for Towns, other bigs in the 2015 draft class who could flourish at the next level, and players who have recently emerged as draft sleepers.
Why is Karl-Anthony Towns ranked so high on the Big Board?
Chad Ford: While Big Board No. 1 Jahlil Okafor is a more dominating presence offensively, Towns has been equally good defensively for Kentucky this season. He's an elite shot-blocker and a very good rebounder who has the agility to get out and guard both 4s and 5s at the NBA level. He's a much more fluid athlete than Okafor, which I think largely accounts for his superior defense.
Offensively, Towns hasn't been as dominant. He lacks Okafor's footwork around the basket and, at times, he lacks Okafor's toughness when play gets physical. He has a nasty habit of fading away on his shots in the paint too often. But I think the platoon Kentucky runs, combined with guards who love to shoot first and ask questions later (I'm looking at you, Harrison twins), play a larger role in his uneven offensively play.
The potential is there. Towns has soft hands, a high basketball IQ and, while he hasn't totally shown it this season, he can spread the floor and has range out to the NBA 3-point line. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 at the next level should be very attractive to teams drafting high.
Kevin Pelton: Towns currently sits ninth on my board in terms of projected WARP, but he's the leader among guys who are legitimately in contention for the top pick. (As noted last week, Okafor has performed better, but his projection has regressed more to the mean because of his high 2-point percentage.)
The numbers play out basically like you'd expect. Towns is ahead of Okafor defensively, and rebounding and shot-blocking (his 14.0 percent block rate ranks fifth in the country, per KenPom.com) are currently his two biggest statistical strengths. But he's not as involved in the balanced UK offense, and his 2-point percentage (.510) is on the low side for an NBA-bound big man.
Which NBA players could be comparisons for Towns?
Ford: I'm trying to think of the last 6-foot-11 big man with a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-5 standing reach with Towns' skills. Is there a mobile big who can rebound, block shots at an elite level, and on offense stretch the floor and pass the way Towns is capable of passing?
I can't really think of who that guy is right now. Kevin?
Pelton: SCHOENE isn't much of a help. The two players with similarity scores of better than 95 at the same age are Patrick O'Bryant, whose impressive performance against mid-major competition never translated to the NBA, and Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
From a physical/tools standpoint, I might say Al Horford. But Horford doesn't have Towns' wingspan, one reason why he's not the same kind of shot-blocking presence. And Horford grew into the superior offensive player in college. He was about the same age as a sophomore that Towns is now, and he shot 60.8 percent from the field then.
Ford: Horford was the player I was thinking of, as well. But Towns is significantly bigger: He's 3 inches taller with a much bigger wingspan and standing reach. What a monster Horford would be if he was Towns' size. That comp certainly won't hurt him