RonRon wrote:

dk7th wrote:

RonRon wrote:What advanced stats are best to look at when anylzing talent?

Players I would like to compare and analyze and compare are

Jimmy Butler
Draymond Green
Kawaii Leonard

Millsap
Dragic

i look at (1) TS% which combines 2s, 3s, and free throws to measure efficiency. it doesn't really work that well for players who don't shoot threes

i also look at (2) the ratio between usage and assist rate (the number of assists generated when that player is on the floor)

real point guards will have a ratio of around .50:1, elite shooting guards and non-orchestrating "scoring point guards" will have a ratio of 1:1, swingmen will have a range from 1:1 to 1.35:1 but sometimes 1.5:1 is acceptable. anything above that is for "finishers" who have no business handling the ball. this ratio represents the player's contribution to offensive cohesion.

also (3) BPM or "box plus/minus" shows a players effectiveness on both sides of the ball, comprised of obpm and dbpm. looks like your assessment of green is accurate.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greendr01.html

Thank You DK

So basically there are different combinations of advanced STATS to use when analyzing depnding on their position and their games?
It is hard for Golden State as a lot of their games are actually blowouts, especially when David Lee came back and got back on track withBOget

A lot of times they do not play in the 4th quarter or are playing just to kill clock

yes i believe there is a sliding scale for the first two stats.

at first i was puzzled at the TS% statistic because it seemed to cast a slightly bad light on players like duncan who don't shoot the three, so you are resigned to looking at his fg% which these days should be relegated to two-point shooters in general. then with duncan you have to ask how often he draws fouls and coverts those free throws. he also gets penalized for being a relatively poor free throw shooter, and yet for his career he is at 55TS which is slightly better than carmelo who does have recourse to the 3 point shot.

but so far as "the argument that won't go away" as to the reliance on the three-point shot, i think you will agree that duncan has made a pretty good career out of the midrange game from 8-16 feet out. and griffin, who idolized duncan, is working on his midrange game too, pushing the midrange envelope to closer to 18 feet.

any further than that and you are in no man's land, which is the crux of reinman's beef.

duncan's usg:ast is a remarkable 1.66:1 which is a clear indication of his contributions to offensive cohesion and demonstrates that he is far more than a mere finisher, which is what chandler (3:1) and stat (3.8:1 just abominable) are.

as to blowouts, the starters are usually sitting so their statistics won't be quite so affected as you think.

kMalone - 57.7
Shaq 58.6
Stat 59.7
DRob 58.3
Bosh 57.3
Howard 59.8 (no threes, terrible FT's)

None of these guys shot threes yet they have superstar TS's and there are many bigs like these.

You can be at a really high TS without shooting the 3.

The best stat to start with is WS48 (Win Shares) at basketball-referenc.com. It does a really good job at valuing players. 100 is avg and then you have players like Steph who are at 290ish. Melo has been around 165 as a knick which is very very solid but trailing top superstars badly.

If you look at WS48 and then compare it to the eye test with the stars, it is eerily spot on.

When using the eye test on players like Tobias Harris, it will tell you a very sad story and may conflict heavily with the eye test.

So, I start with these 2.

I look for WS48 @ 130+ and then I look at TS at 54-55+.

Look at shot charts and see where the guy is shooting at what his %'s are in those areas.

Look at his shooting stats (at baaketball reference) to see where he is shooting and what his percentages are in those areas. Look for patterns across seasons and how it correlates with his fluctuating TS.