Here's my top 15-17 at this moment.. it's going to look a lot different from most popular boards since I give more weight to certain numbers much like Ed Weiland does at Hoopsanalyst.com... who btw does great work on the draft... he was the guy who called Jeremy Lin but also lots of others that scouts have missed and called numerous busts... he weights certain numbers like 2p fg%, FTr and assists+steals+blocks along with some others to give you an idea... i put my own adjustments in and my own spin but i use his lists as inspiration...
It's a very good draft with about 15 solid rotation guys but probably not the 15 everyone thinks... most if not all these guys are ready to contribute right now... to give you an idea, if you put marcus smart in this draft he'd have a tough time distinguishing himself...
The All-Around Great Prospects
1 Karl Anthony Towns - Best all around big man prospect... projectable offense who is also playing at a high level.. and by all accounts a great defender... needs to up his 2p shooting% to cement his shakey hold on #1 from....
2 DeAngelo Russell - In any another year without a great center prospect he should go #1... very smooth... FTr is not elite and he'll probably need to be more aggressive at the next level getting to the basket.. but best SG prospect since Harden.
3 Jahlil Okafor - Right now the defensive question marks keeps him behind the other two since he plays the most important defensive position.. still the dominant offense keeps him as an elite prospect..
Upside vs Production
4 Delon Wright - Doesn't quite get the respect he deserves... highly productive across the board against tough competition... not an elite athlete but very intelligent ballplayer.. will be 23 and there are questions about his 3pt shot and overall athleticism but a strong FT% and an improvement in 3pt% from last year means he will be satisfactory there sooner rather than later...
5 Emmanuel Mudiay - Wright and Mudiay are essentially equal with Mudiay more projectable than productive since not much is known.. what is known is that he's a poor shooter(3p% and FT%) so he'll have to work on that.. he has the athleticism and the ball skills and the stats in China point to a decent pg prospect so he's here based on that... if he was really coasting like brandon jennings did in his stint overseas then he might be considerably higher..
The Solid Producers
6 Jakob Poetl - He is probably not coming out but if he did he'd be here... he's a bit like Alex Len but a better chance at being a good defender.. Utah is currently #6 in the nation on defense and he's a big reason why...
7 Bobby Portis - Solid all around prospect at the 4 and can fit into a number of modern screen and roll offenses while holding his own on defense...
8 Kris Dunn - First couple of seasons marred by injury but looks like the player he should've been coming out of HS... great athlete who can hang at the next level..
9 Stanley Johnson - I've cooled on him a bit since there are so many great prospects at premium positions and he has some question marks about his playmaking ability(assist/to) that limits his upside... he's not quite artest but might be more shooting/less defense version of him...
10 Rakeem Christmas - Admittedly seen very little of him this year but finally producing at a high level... seniors who turn it on their final year are historically a bit risky however and he fits the bill since there was no indication of him being this good offensively... a power forward who can defend the weak side who can contribute offensively is a valuable thing tho...
The Risky Centers
11 Willie-Cauley Stein - He is a bit of an enigma given the Kentucky situation.. Two previous seasons saw a mediocre defensive team with him manning the middle and he's limited to dunking oops on offense and that's it... so there's real bust potential here also given that he doesn't seem too committed to the game... still... good big men have always been gambled on in this area... you either get a frederick weis or an andre drummond...
12 Myles Turner - First thing that jumps out when you see him is that he is the typical big man with loads of talent that has a low bball iq.. think a bigger eddie griffin... he's a center who prefers the perimeter without the quickness to survive out there... he has good size and he can shoot but is just not that good of a shooter yet.. still he blocks a lot of shots and young enough where something could be salvaged of him...
The Good Role Players
13 Jerian Grant - Another solid pg prospect... what's worrisome is this is his first year with a 2p% over 50% whereas the previous two years he wasn't close.. also a very odd declining ft% for a guy who shoots a ton of ft's... great size and good ballhandler and solid shooter and if he can keep it up he might be in the top 10...
14 Justise Winslow - He's a much better prospect as a SG than SF as he has better size for that position... Good spot up shooter... wes matthews is a good comp for him..
15 Terry Rozier - Undersized guard but he has the athleticism to hang in the pro's with outstanding rebounding numbers for a guard with decent shooting and playmaking ability... question that limits him is, can you start him or is he a sixth man type? he's sort of a souped up lou williams and i think he'll have that type of career..
Interesting Role players
16 Frank Kaminsky - I don't think you could ever start him and be a winner since he is a liability on defense but a stretch center type can fulfill a role coming off the bench and be a weapon...
17 Jordan Mickey - Has numbers much like Christmas has now but more questions about his offense since he is a tad short for the PF position.. but if he could ever develop a 3pt shot like he's tried in the beginning of the year then he all of a sudden becomes very valuable...
18 Porzingis - Everyone says he's a PF but the numbers scream SF... He's got a lot of Danilo Galinari in his game without the feistiness... he'll need to toughen up once he gets into the league to fulfill any kind of promise ... right now he's a stretch 4 type off the bench due to low rebounding numbers that i doubt he will improve upon...
19 Cameron Payne - Not a name everyone knows since he's from Murray State.. but someone to keep an eye on..
Busts
Kelly Oubre - will need to return for a sophomore year as he's shown very little to be a reliable 1st rd draft pick.. huge risk for anyone who picks him.
Devin Booker - he's the prototypical shooter that usually fails at the next level due to not having enough athleticism.. low steals/blocks/rebounding numbers all point to that...
The Harrisons - just bad...
2/9/2015 7:40 PM