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Mavs' Tricks Could Net A Center

By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com
Jon Stefansson, who has never played a single minute in the NBA, is staying? Antoine Walker, a relatively young 3-time All-Star, is possibly going to be made available to the Bobcats in the expansion draft?
The latest developments, which include a trick that might net the Mavs a big-time center:

THE NEW DEVELOPMENTS

Because of his team-friendly long-term contract, if the opportunity were available, it has long been apparent to all that Charlotte would clearly grab Jon Stefansson from the Mavs in lieu of a more costly player in the upcoming expansion draft. But his NBA skills are far from proven, and it has been uncertain as to whether he is in the Mavs long term plans or not.
Thus, the first hint this week of something developing was a reported front office decision to include the young guard on their protected list.
It was surmised that the Mavs' rationale in so doing might be to force the Bobcats to select more expensive players for their roster; but there is nothing that would compel Charlotte to take anyone at all from the Mavs. Thus this move signaled at least to some degree a sense among the Mavs that Stefansson indeed has the potential to develop into a contributor down the road and thus would be desirable to retain.
However, this decision would leave the Mavericks in a tight squeeze regarding whom to protect, and thus there are consequences to consider. Conventional thinking (including interviews with Donnie Nelson) have consistently included Nowitzki, Howard, Daniels, Jamison, Walker, and Finley on the 8-man protected list, with Bradley, Najera, and Stefansson all under consideration to join the expected trio of Delk, Abdul-Wahad, and Fortson as unprotected players.
Moving Stefansson onto the protected list would leave 1 final slot available there, with Bradley and Najera the remaining options to fill it. However, both players are effective role players with the Mavs, and both have relatively team-friendly contracts. It has appeared the team would want to keep them both, if possible.
Then, Mark Cuban revealed news that would serve to permit the team to indeed keep both players: the Mavericks are considering leaving Antoine Walker, a 3-time All-Star, unprotected.
This would allow them to protect both Bradley and Najera (as well as Stefansson), and would result in the foursome of Delk (2 yr $6.5M), Walker (1 yr $14.6M), Fortson (3 yr $19.2M), and Abdul-Wahad (3 yr $21.9M) each being available for Charlotte to take.
The ensuing questions: Is this a message being sent to Walker to force him to opt out of his contract? Doesn't he have a ton of trade value that they would be tossing in the trash? If they don't want him, why don't they just trade him for that elusive center they need? Would Charlotte even want him? Is this an admission that they screwed up the Raef LaFrentz trade last fall? Have they found out he has no trade value at all and just need to dump him any way they can? Why would the Mavs let this be made public, because doesn't that tend to gut any value he has?

HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER

On first glance, I was as confused as anyone else out there regarding this whole development. However, after studying and researching a bit, it all starts to make perfect sense, and the pieces fit together nicely. In fact, the more I look at it, the more logical the whole thing becomes. Let's take a look.
First of all, it is completely obvious to everyone that Walker does not have a long-term role here in Dallas. Although he has many skills, they just don't fit on this team. He was tried in every role imaginable here, and although he was better at some roles than others, and even though he made nice contributions in some areas, he never seemed able to produce All-Star caliber production in conjunction with the other players on the Mavericks. Things just didn't mesh, probably because his best position is already taken here by Dirk Nowitzki.
Secondly, because he has a desirable expiring contract, and because he has talent, most observers assume (and rightly so, I think) that the Mavs' best use for Walker from this point is to use him to upgrade the center position via trade.
But, you ask, doesn't this current spate of events tend to lessen or even ruin that possibility? The more I consider it, the more I am convinced that, to the contrary, the Mavs have effectively increased their ability to market Walker for a center, by these current moves.
Let's look at the new set of possibilities.
Has anything changed yet? Not really. As I see it, so far the Mavs have merely made it clear to all that Walker might be on the move, and that if you want to make a deal with Dallas for his expiring contract (rather than letting it be grabbed by the Bobcats), you need to step up with an offer.
Should it come as any surprise to the NBA world that Walker is now available? No. However, now a degree of urgency has been injected into the equation for certain teams. If you have a center you want to send us, perhaps with a contract you want to get off your books somehow, you better step up, because there is no way that Charlotte (with their limited starting cap) can send you Walker's expiring contract for a bloated contract. Or, if you want talent this year followed by a cap decrease next year ala Rasheed Wallace, you need to move quickly.
Now this may indeed spur a team to make a deal with the Mavs right away, or it may not. But in any event, it creates urgency in teams where there is already residual interest. Urgency makes things happen.
Note also that the protected list must be submitted in a week (June 12). Since players traded will have to be protected, the effective deadline for some sort of decision is only about a week away.
What if no one steps up? Do the Mavericks go ahead and leave Walker unprotected? Unless they have a deal in place for Walker that can't occur til later for some reason (which is possible), then it would seem pretty cut and dried that Walker will be made available to Charlotte.

THE REST OF THE STORY

That isn't the end of the story, however.
First, it isn't a certainty that Charlotte would take him, even if they can.
The upside for Charlotte would be his contract that expires in a year, plus having a player with lots of skills that might make their team more competitive while they keep him.
But there are several downsides for the Bobcats if they select him. The obvious one is the size of Walker's contract ($14.625M) which would eat up almost half of Charlotte's expected $30M cap. They certainly wouldn't want to take him and then cut him and eat the salary, so if they select him he will use a huge chunk from their cap if they haven't traded him prior to the first game.
Furthermore, one of the big appeals regarding Walker in a trade is his expiring contract. But if they decide to trade him to another team, that team will obviously be one that is over the cap, and thus would have to send them back a similar amount of contracts (that last longer) in return, to make the expiring contract of Walker become a cap-benefit to them. Would Charlotte want back players with contracts that are the same size as Walker's, but last longer?
Yet there is one definite scenario in which Charlotte can take and make use of Walker, and Cuban's move has brilliantly made that possible. Although Charlotte cannot reveal to another team which players are unprotected around the league, teams can play "what if" with the Bobcats. Thus, now knowing that Walker is likely to be on the list of available players, a team can make a side deal with Charlotte that "if you can get Walker and trade him to us, we will give you this or that in return."
The Bobcats might not take him, even if they can. But this does open the door wider.
What's in it for Dallas, in all this?
Let's begin by noting again that the Mavs surely don't have Walker in their long-term plans. Thus, to them, it is only a matter of when he leaves and what they get in return.
As we have already noted, the Mavs in doing this have effectively created deadlines for teams to make a deal with Dallas for that expiring contract. If another team wants to work with a team that has been known to take on money for the right player, they have an opportunity now. If and when Walker gets to Charlotte, that might not be the case.
Also, this development has carved out an extra slot on the protected list for the Mavs. Since Walker is gone from this team, either now or later, the willingness to say "okay take him now if you wish" lets them protect the players they prefer to continue with. If he isn't taken, they still have him here til they work out a trade later, with someone that desires cap room via an expiring contract.

THE FINAL CRUCIAL FACTOR

Even if the Mavs lose him to Charlotte, they gain a usable upside, that in some scenarios could be preferable. If the Bobcats take Walker, the Mavs will receive an "assignment exception" (aka a "trade exception"or TE) that may assist them in obtaining a center.
The TE has been mentioned a lot lately, because of its tie-in to the expansion draft. But how are they usable? In particular, how might having one benefit the Mavs?
A TE lasts a year and then any unused portion expires. It is not a commodity that in and of itself can be traded, but rather it allows a team over the cap the ability to get players via trades without completely matching salaries, as must usually be done. This effectively gives great flexibility, and it can be used in some circumstances (if the other team is interested) like one of the desirable "expiring contracts" - only, in this case, it would effectively be one that reduces the cap amount immediately rather than later.
Note that teams cannot use a TE to sign free agents; it can be used only to acquire existing contracts from other teams.
Since it is not a "commodity," it cannot be traded to another team as such. For example, I could not trade my giant TE for your #1 Pick. It is merely a usable "exception to the cap rules."
Let's give some examples.
In general, if Charlotte takes Walker, the Mavs would get a TE in the amount of $14.625M (which is Walker's salary for 2004-05). This TE would last for a year (365 days).
If they make a trade for players making $18.625M, this TE would allow them to send as little as $4M in salary to the other team to balance the trade, thus immediately reducing the other teams payroll (and cap amount) by the difference. For a team in danger of paying luxury tax this year, that could be a huge incentive to make a deal.
Whatever amount of "exception" is unused can be retained and used in another deal. Thus if the Mavs receive $18.625M in salary but send away $10M, they will still have a $6M TE left to use on a different deal.
[Side Note: in the last example above, the other team under some circumstances would (because they were taking back less salary than they gave away in the trade) receive a TE of $8.25M. But in spite of appearances, the TE they would receive is not a trade of a TE, but rather because a new one was created by such a trade. In some circumstances though (depending on the number of players in the trade), no TE would be created in a trade with similar numbers. And for a team looking to reduce payroll, a TE is unlikely to be used anyhow, as it merely allows them at a later date to increase their payroll above the cap again.]
Here is a specific example involving the Mavs, with a player they might be interested in. Erick Dampier is expected to opt out of his contract this summer, and could be the sort of center they might want. Let's say they negotiate a deal with Dampier on a contract starting at $9.5M a year, and then want to work out a sign-and-trade with the Warriors. Rather than offering players to the Warriors that might not be totally desirable, they could perhaps offer draft choices instead. The Warriors get cap room and reduced salary, plus value, in exchange for a player they were going to lose anyhow. And the Mavs would still have more than a $5M TE left to use for a different trade.
They could do the same sort of deal with Utah for Ostertag, albeit for a far smaller contract.
A team like Boston might not want players back in a sign-and-trade for Blount, since they aren't far under luxury tax levels. But they might be amenable to draft picks. A TE would allow such a sign-and-trade to work.
With a large TE to use, you could get around Base Year hangups in a sign-and-trade for someone like Kenyon Martin.
In summary, if the Mavs are trading away Walker, they are offering some level of future cap relief, plus a player with talent to help that team in the short run. With a TE, they have to add some sort of talent into the deal, but the flexibility is greater and the cap relief to the other team is immediate.
It looks like the Mavs are focusing on making the obvious deal work: send away Walker, and get a center back in his place. However, they appear to be opening the door to perhaps use an unexpected and unusual method to accomplish their goal, and perhaps a method that not only is different but also has more potential than conventional ones.


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they better wake up from their dream with walker's 15mm he's owed.
the only way to select walker is to find another cap friendly team who would want him--have dallas give charlotte 3mm + a pick and the other team would likely have to fork over a pick all for the privilege of paying walker 15mm dollars. sorry charlie

do you want me to split them up ? like episode 1, 2 and 3 ?