TripleThreat wrote:NardDogNation wrote:Could the Knicks get a "right-to-swap" from the Pelicans for Shumpert? I was thinking that maybe we could boost a first rounder from a team like the Thunder and then swap it for a significantly better pick from the Pelicans. We need to get a 2nd lottery pick because we need all the talent that we can get. My early favorite is Stanley Johnson, whose game is made for the triangle.
IMHO, the best way to look at the NBA Draft is to break it down by player "Tiers".
For example, in the last draft, the top three players, in any order of desirability, would have been Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid. Any of those guys could have been the 1st overall pick and no one would have blinked an eye. If any combination of two went first and second, the 76ers, who held the third pick, would have just taken whomever was left. They would have been happy with Wiggins, Parker or Embiid at the No#3 overall slot. They ended up with Embiid.
For any of the top three teams drafting, to move from one of the first three picks, into anything lower in the draft, would have been taking IMHO a step down in potential talent ceiling, at least given the time and place of that draft. ( Obviously there are things now we can see because players have played a little, that would have changed things) For the Bucks to trade DOWN from No#2 to anything under the third pick would have put them into a "cloud", i.e. any player selected 4th and beyond would be in a lower tier/class of players and honestly you could pick one of many, and still have it be passable.
For example. Utah had the 5th pick. They picked Dante Exum. But if they picked Marcus Smart or Julius Randle, no one would have blinked an eye. It would not have been horrible value to get Randle or Smart instead given the time and place.
So a way to look at the last draft is
Tier 1 - First three players
Tier 2 - Next six players
Tier 3 - Next six players
You aren't going to get a lot of trade value trading in your own tier. For example, if Milwaukee wanted Clevelands first overall pick, the Cavs couldn't have asked for a ransom because no one player was so extremely outstanding over the rest. It's not like there was a Tim Duncan/Shaq can't miss player in this draft.
If the Celtics wanted to move from sixth to fourth, they couldn't have been leveraged for much, because ( as long none of the first tier guys drop into the 2nd tier), all of those players around them are in that "cloud" For example, the guy picked 8th isn't going to so overwhelmingly a sure shot over the guy at 6th.
But the beginning of Tier 3 is where it got interesting
Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers trade
Orlando acquired draft rights to 10th pick Elfrid Payton
Philadelphia 76ers acquired draft rights to 12th pick Dario Šarić, a 2015 second-round pick and a future first-round pick
Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls trade
Chicago acquired Anthony Randolph and draft rights to 11th pick Doug McDermott
Denver acquired draft rights to 16th pick Jusuf Nurkić, draft rights to 19th pick Gary Harris and a 2015 second-round pick
The cost to move up, even just a few slots, was basically an additional first round pick and a 2nd round pick.
The Jazz were rumored to have offered their 5th plus Derrick Favors to get into the Top 3 of the last draft. ( Favors now is probably seen as more valuable than what he was seen as back during the draft phase of the offseason) The top three teams turned Utah down.
So just looking at close to current market value and draft history, the Knicks have ZERO chance to move into the next draft lottery to acquire another pick. They have close to zero chance of even converting their own first rounder ( if it falls in the 7-12 range) along with other assets into a lottery pick.
The players that people are talking about now in this thread, most of them are likely to be Tier 1 picks. Unless the Knicks get into the draft lottery and win a top 2 or top 3 pick, they have ZERO chance to get most of the elite prospects people are talking about.
Think about that, the cost to move just a few spots in a Tier 3 situation cost teams an extra first and a 2nd round pick. Anyone think the Knicks have that kind of draft currency to spare?
IMHO, at most, Shumpert can be traded at the trade deadline for a rental price, for a 2nd rounder or a couple of 2nd rounders. Some team in contention might need some perimeter defense. He's a contract year guy who is moving out of his cost controlled years phase. Those guys just don't have much trade value as a late season/post season rental.
The Knicks under current projections, are picking 7th. If they hold to league metrics and win in that 30-35 game zone ( stacking late season wins against tanking teams and playoff teams resting their cores), then they are likely picking 10-12, depending on what other teams do.
A lot of the names getting thrown around are likely to be off the board by the time the Knicks make their selection.
The Knicks NEED to tank and need to tank right now. It's a crapshoot where they would end up in the lottery, but better to risk that then to get some guy at 10 (and that's very optimistic to get the 10th at this point) and run out next season with Melo, Calderon and Willie Cauley Stein and whatever free agent churn that Zen Master can overpay.
As for Philly, if their pick, the best player available is a center, they will take him. And then if need be, trade one of their centers. You take the player with the highest ceiling when you are near the top of the draft. If Philly ends up with three legit starting NBA caliber centers on rookie deals, they will be the most asset rich team in the league by far. Where the Knicks are likely to pick, then you start to look at players with the highest talent floor.
The very same reason the Knicks want to jump into a higher tier is the same reason teams already in that tier don't want to move down, not without a big ransom.
The second tier in this next draft(assuming all come out who are advised to) will be longer and better than the 2014 draft. I don't think anyone is perfectly clear where the first tier ends--it could only be one player and as many as 5 believe it or not. There are young high ranked player who have showed very well and older players who have come in to their own--impossible to fully dictate what is what but I strongly believe the Knicks--either drafting top 3(hope) or even drafting down to 10 will come out with is a quality player. I believe Klay Thompson was a 12 pick and Steph Curry was a 6 pick--both I would call franchise players or close. Can the Knicks using assets they have now clear out a second 1st round pick and or additional 2's to use to move up for an additional mid range #1? I'm very big on Frank Kaminsky in that mid 1st and Jerian Grant in the early 2nd for the "triangle" but we need a core horse with the high end pick one of ok4 Towns Johnson Stein. If we are able to land two bigs who both can shoot pass and play D it leaves us with an easier avenue in FA. Mark gasol is a max player and the odds of coming here are very low. Its better to leverage our draft on "Bigs" and go for wings and guards in FA. Guys like Butler Jackson will be easier to obtain than Gasol.
11/25/2014 9:50 PM