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new TV deal changes my opinion on what to do with Shump
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fishmike
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10/15/2014  3:51 PM
My plan all along was a pump and dump. Get him playing well and send him to anyone for an expiring contract and a first rounder, even if its like pick 30.

My reasoning was simple: In order to use the upcoming cap space to grab a high impact (an expensive) player we need to clean the roster and that means not resigning Shump or offering him a QO

If the cap jumps to $80-$90mm which is expected I think that no longer holds true, assuming he has a breakout season and signs cheap. I know we have THjr in the queue but it doesnt mean you cant keep Shump (bye bye JR).

I still like what he brings, and I think with some better talent around him he will look even better.

Say he played great and is injury free... 12ppg, 5rebs, 2steals, 2 assists and he playing impact defense that sounds like 4 years $30mm (about 7.5mm a year) a little less than what Ariza got I believe.

Thoughts?

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Splat
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10/15/2014  3:57 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/15/2014  3:58 PM
The real issue is how the clubs normalize salaries under the higher cap. Do they now pay a bigger max to the top players and still pay roughly the same to the rest of the squad or will there be salary drift upwards among all players?

The ideal outcome is max players outside of Lebron and Durant types do not get more and then you can afford two, even three maxes and still have salary left to build a good team.

We won't know the outcome of that trend until it happens in real time the season after next, but Phil is planning for it. My guess is Shump stays if he plays up to his abilities and if he is then considered the starting # 2 for the next 4 years it is probably $6-8M per.

Timmy would potentially supplant Shump only if he develops his defense and passing. Otherwise, he has the makings of being a top 6th man, a better version of 6th man JR.

And in that case, they both may have a future with the club.

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gunsnewing
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10/15/2014  4:09 PM
yea I said if shump excels under phil & derek people will change their tone about trading him for a bag of balls. Shumpert just needed a fair chance to showcase that he is a multi-dimensional talent. Not a stand in the corner guy
fishmike
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10/15/2014  4:22 PM
gunsnewing wrote:yea I said if shump excels under phil & derek people will change their tone about trading him for a bag of balls. Shumpert just needed a fair chance to showcase that he is a multi-dimensional talent. Not a stand in the corner guy
Oh I think he's shown it. The talent is there if the role is right. I think we actually have asked too much.
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fishmike
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10/15/2014  4:27 PM
Splat wrote:The real issue is how the clubs normalize salaries under the higher cap. Do they now pay a bigger max to the top players and still pay roughly the same to the rest of the squad or will there be salary drift upwards among all players?

The ideal outcome is max players outside of Lebron and Durant types do not get more and then you can afford two, even three maxes and still have salary left to build a good team.

We won't know the outcome of that trend until it happens in real time the season after next, but Phil is planning for it. My guess is Shump stays if he plays up to his abilities and if he is then considered the starting # 2 for the next 4 years it is probably $6-8M per.

Timmy would potentially supplant Shump only if he develops his defense and passing. Otherwise, he has the makings of being a top 6th man, a better version of 6th man JR.

And in that case, they both may have a future with the club.

well the maxes are based on %s. So those will go up for sure, but the guys signed should also become cheaper in the overall scheme of the cap.

I get that this is hypothetical and there are a lot of moving parts. I guess focus on the big picture. We have seen a lot of inconsistant play from shump, but most here would agree he's got a useful skill set, especially if healthy.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Splat
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10/15/2014  6:12 PM
fishmike wrote:
Splat wrote:The real issue is how the clubs normalize salaries under the higher cap. Do they now pay a bigger max to the top players and still pay roughly the same to the rest of the squad or will there be salary drift upwards among all players?

The ideal outcome is max players outside of Lebron and Durant types do not get more and then you can afford two, even three maxes and still have salary left to build a good team.

We won't know the outcome of that trend until it happens in real time the season after next, but Phil is planning for it. My guess is Shump stays if he plays up to his abilities and if he is then considered the starting # 2 for the next 4 years it is probably $6-8M per.

Timmy would potentially supplant Shump only if he develops his defense and passing. Otherwise, he has the makings of being a top 6th man, a better version of 6th man JR.

And in that case, they both may have a future with the club.

well the maxes are based on %s. So those will go up for sure, but the guys signed should also become cheaper in the overall scheme of the cap.

I get that this is hypothetical and there are a lot of moving parts. I guess focus on the big picture. We have seen a lot of inconsistant play from shump, but most here would agree he's got a useful skill set, especially if healthy.

Right, so I meant whether or not the clubs will collectively keep most current max levels as their continuing ceiling for paying the biggest players outside of the top 2 or 3 players in the league. If the league started handing out a dozen max contracts of 25-30M a year, I don't see how that helps. Of course, the owners don't want to pay more, but alas bidding wars will happen and some will overpay.

I don't know if Phil is going to over pay for talent generally . He caved to Melo who gave up squat after talking as if he would. But I think behind the scenes all involved knew the NBA TV deal was coming, so Melo's people said pay us or we sign elsewhere on a 2 year deal and then we'll get an even bigger check then.

I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
Dagger
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10/15/2014  7:22 PM
He has a long way to go still, he hasn't proved anything yet. A couple preseason games mean nothing. If 3 months into the season he actually looks like he could be a starting caliber player on a good team then you extend him. People are forgetting this guy was a marginal nba player last year, a few games that don't affect the record don't change that.
yellowboy90
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10/15/2014  7:32 PM
Can you really trust contract seasons? If Shump does play great then sure bring him back but it better be in the 5-7m per range and & is probably stretching it.
Splat
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10/15/2014  7:44 PM
I doubt anyone is ready to annoint Shump a sure thing for the long-term. This is his year to show he belongs. Prior to this he was poorly used by Woodson, so we will learn a great deal more about him this year than before. And he blew out his knee after having a really good rookie year. Maturity and healing have been big factors and both of those may be on the plus side of the column now. Its up to him. Some just see the possibility is really good if he clicks now.
I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
newyorknewyork
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10/15/2014  10:01 PM
Last yr I told a co-worker Knicks fan that Shump is gonna be a good basketball player. But its going ng to be when he is like 29 and no longer on the Knicks. After yrs of seasoning.
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Splat
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10/15/2014  10:27 PM
newyorknewyork wrote:Last yr I told a co-worker Knicks fan that Shump is gonna be a good basketball player. But its going ng to be when he is like 29 and no longer on the Knicks. After yrs of seasoning.

Really? I think the wait may be over and this is that time. I don't think it is five years away. If he is not ready this year, I don't think he will likely ever be. This situation is probably ideal right now and I see Fish and Phil as smart enough to make it possible for him to thrive.

I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
nixluva
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10/16/2014  12:25 AM
People seem to keep forgetting that we have Phil in charge now. He's not going to be making stupid non basketball moves. Shump is a winning player in this system and being taught by guys that know what they're doing. The longer Shump is in this nurturing environment the better he's going to be. Talent in the hands of knowledgeable teachers will be maximized. We've NEVER seen Shump at his best yet. Maybe we'll finally get to see that this year.
Splat
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10/16/2014  12:41 AM
nixluva wrote:People seem to keep forgetting that we have Phil in charge now. He's not going to be making stupid non basketball moves. Shump is a winning player in this system and being taught by guys that know what they're doing. The longer Shump is in this nurturing environment the better he's going to be. Talent in the hands of knowledgeable teachers will be maximized. We've NEVER seen Shump at his best yet. Maybe we'll finally get to see that this year.

He could continue to get better over the years in the right environment, but I think we'll see a real leap forward in his confidence, impact and production this year. Some guys simply must have the right culture to thrive in. Melo can go be stud scorer on a team of chipmunks, but Shump needs a system, a coach, respect and accountability to blossom.

It can be a chicken or egg thing with a guy like Shump. He got moody and felt alienated. Maybe his teammates got fed up with his attitude. They would freeze him out of plays (happened a boatload).

Shump needed to reboot his mindset and not wait for his teammates to love him back. He had to just become completely professional, practice the spiritual act of expressing gratitude like he said last night, and get back on the horse and earn everybody's respect.

I think it will be worth the wait. Not everybody gets along in the beginning and Shump needed to grow out of the teenage mindset and take his place on the stage. If Melo was not supportive, he will be if Shump is unwavering in his commitment and produces. Its almost better that way. Then they can bond over pride of achievement and not just because they are simpatico personalities. Winning heals a whole lot.

I've got a fever and the only prescription is more cowbell!
Bonn1997
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10/16/2014  6:09 AM
That sounds like a player we should try to trade at the deadline - not someone worth half of a max contract.
knicks1248
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10/16/2014  9:29 AM
Splat wrote:I doubt anyone is ready to annoint Shump a sure thing for the long-term. This is his year to show he belongs. Prior to this he was poorly used by Woodson, so we will learn a great deal more about him this year than before. And he blew out his knee after having a really good rookie year. Maturity and healing have been big factors and both of those may be on the plus side of the column now. Its up to him. Some just see the possibility is really good if he clicks now.

I wouldn't blame it all on Woodson, his attitude sucked. He was acting like a big baby last season and he admitted it. I think it effected the team as well.

ES
Bonn1997
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10/16/2014  10:22 AM    LAST EDITED: 10/16/2014  10:23 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
fishmike wrote:My plan all along was a pump and dump. Get him playing well and send him to anyone for an expiring contract and a first rounder, even if its like pick 30.

Thoughts?

If Shumpert rebuilds his trade value this year, he will still only be a short term rental at the trade deadline, and that lingering question of "Is This A Future Core Guy?" will simply pass onto the new team in any deal. The most the Knicks are likely to get is a 2nd round pick.

The key issue here IMHO is that Melo and Calderon are the only true roster locks for the next three seasons ( I just don't see the Knicks finding a way to dump Calderon's contract) Whomever the Knicks have playing the other wing position ( If Melo stays at SF) needs to be a plus defender. The Knick have zero hope to win if they have Melo ( lousy defender), Calderon( aging lousy defender) and then add another wing who can't defend.

Complicating this is there is no one else on the roster who is young and being groomed that can offer plus defense on the wing. Whether it's Shump or someone else, the Knicks need a SG who can be an elite defender.

I don't think the Knicks extend a QO to Shump, I think he leaves. ( Sometimes it's just better for a player to move on)

Oh, I think if he's playing as well as Fish is suggesting, you could get a pick around 25.
If he's playing like his career #s, you probably won't get more than a pick around 55 though.

fishmike
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10/16/2014  10:40 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
TripleThreat wrote:
fishmike wrote:My plan all along was a pump and dump. Get him playing well and send him to anyone for an expiring contract and a first rounder, even if its like pick 30.

Thoughts?

If Shumpert rebuilds his trade value this year, he will still only be a short term rental at the trade deadline, and that lingering question of "Is This A Future Core Guy?" will simply pass onto the new team in any deal. The most the Knicks are likely to get is a 2nd round pick.

The key issue here IMHO is that Melo and Calderon are the only true roster locks for the next three seasons ( I just don't see the Knicks finding a way to dump Calderon's contract) Whomever the Knicks have playing the other wing position ( If Melo stays at SF) needs to be a plus defender. The Knick have zero hope to win if they have Melo ( lousy defender), Calderon( aging lousy defender) and then add another wing who can't defend.

Complicating this is there is no one else on the roster who is young and being groomed that can offer plus defense on the wing. Whether it's Shump or someone else, the Knicks need a SG who can be an elite defender.

I don't think the Knicks extend a QO to Shump, I think he leaves. ( Sometimes it's just better for a player to move on)

Oh, I think if he's playing as well as Fish is suggesting, you could get a pick around 25.
If he's playing like his career #s, you probably won't get more than a pick around 55 though.

didnt we have a deal on the table for him to OKC for at least one of their first rounders and Dolan killed it? I would agree with your post regardless though... if he's playing well there will be a team willing to give up a late #1 for a rental or perhaps more if they think he fits into their long term plans
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
gunsnewing
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10/16/2014  10:43 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:Can you really trust contract seasons? If Shump does play great then sure bring him back but it better be in the 5-7m per range and & is probably stretching it.

So he can perform in a contract year? I guess thats a step above 90% of the board saying he can't play at all

gunsnewing
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10/16/2014  10:46 AM
Put it this way.

I rather have Shumpert, Sammy, Acy & Jason

Then
Marc Gasol & JR Smith

Vmart
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10/16/2014  10:48 AM
I want to see if Shump deserves a new contract with the Knicks. I would purposely throw adversity towards Shump to see his reaction. Based off of that I would determine the money he gets. 5-7 million I think is to much for Shump at this moment in time.
new TV deal changes my opinion on what to do with Shump

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